Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
The world’s biggest housing bubble - Christopher Joye; CJ calls you bulls, fools...
Topic Started: 1 Sep 2014, 04:36 PM (4,568 Views)
Mallard
Default APF Avatar
Thread killer

Dr Watson
3 Sep 2014, 08:39 AM
Something to do with our high wages, perhaps? Everything is more expensive in Oz. Clothes, gadgets, furniture, you name it.
Lol. What award wage are drug dealers on? Do they get extra for working late? What about travel costs?
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Sydneyite
Member Avatar


Mallard
3 Sep 2014, 07:45 AM
Ned Flanders
2 Sep 2014, 09:40 PM
No, you are wrong. Plenty of studies have been done on this by economists. Because drugs are illegal, they are cheap.
* The workforce is not well paid (read Freakonomics, street dealers earn less than burger flippers).
* Weapons are a capital cost, not an expense. You can buy a pistol for less than one months rent in a traditional business.
* Bribes make up less than 10% of topline revenue.
* There is no income tax, payroll tax, sales tax, workers compensation insurance, office/retail space, unfair dismissal suits in the whole of the supply chain.
* Narcotics street prices have remained fairly constant for 30 years. The only variations have been around the beginning and end of the Vietnam war and the beginning and end of the war in Afghanistan.
Cocaine in Colombia is $3 a gram
Cocaine in Australia is $300 a gram

Please explain this.
QED.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


Mallard
3 Sep 2014, 07:45 AM
Cocaine in Colombia is $3 a gram
Cocaine in Australia is $300 a gram

Please explain this.
Easy.

Australia is in the arsehole of nowhere and has a relatively small population, meaning a small market.

Its a supply side issue.

Who could be arsed taking the risk of getting it here when the market is so small?
Edited by Veritas, 3 Sep 2014, 12:26 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Guest
Unregistered

Veritas
3 Sep 2014, 12:25 PM
Australia is in the arsehole of nowhere
And Columbia isn't?

Quote:
 
and has a relatively small population
so does Columbia, 45 million. Double the population but one hundredth of the price.

Quote:
 
the risk
Now we're getting somewhere. The risk premium. Goes away when legalised.
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


Quote:
 
And Columbia isn't?


Eh... they make it in Columbia. Shit loads of it. For the US market. If it isn't cheap there where would it be?

Its pure supply and demand.

Why are drugs expensive in Australia? Because demand vastly outstrips supply. Its nothing to do with Australia being a rich country.

If there were more supply, dealers would compete on price and drive prices down.

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Guest
Unregistered

It strikes me that timing is largely irrelevant to the current decision facing young people.

If you are able to save, put it into a diversified internationally hedged investment. There are many of these.

When owning becomes cheaper than renting (it has happened twice so far in my lifetime; I suspect it will happen several more times), buy then.

If owning is always more expensive than renting in Oz (highly doubtful), your investment portfolio will beat buying anyway, plus will be liquid, providing you with future opportunities (possibly overseas).

There’s really no reward for rushing into property ownership anymore; there was in the last decade, but if one did that, now is a good time to liquidate. Buy low, sell high.
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Ex BP Golly
Member Avatar


Mallard
3 Sep 2014, 07:45 AM
Cocaine in Colombia is $3 a gram
Cocaine in Australia is $300 a gram

Please explain this.
Since the Wood Royal Commission- police have become very expensive.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Mallard
Default APF Avatar
Thread killer

Veritas
3 Sep 2014, 12:55 PM


Eh... they make it in Columbia. Shit loads of it. For the US market. If it isn't cheap there where would it be?

Its pure supply and demand.

Why are drugs expensive in Australia? Because demand vastly outstrips supply. Its nothing to do with Australia being a rich country.

If there were more supply, dealers would compete on price and drive prices down.
And why is supply restricted?

Because it's illegal.
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


Mallard
3 Sep 2014, 09:57 PM
And why is supply restricted?

Because it's illegal.
:bl:

Like it is almost everywhere.

But in some countries its more expensive than others.

You bring a shipment of cocaine to Europe, you have a market of over 500 million Europeans at your doorstep.

After you ship Cocaine all the way from South America you have a population 20 million.

Its barely worth it, hence little supply, hence high prices.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Guest
Unregistered

Veritas
3 Sep 2014, 10:02 PM
:bl:

Like it is almost everywhere.

But in some countries its more expensive than others.

You bring a shipment of cocaine to Europe, you have a market of over 500 million Europeans at your doorstep.

After you ship Cocaine all the way from South America you have a population 20 million.

Its barely worth it, hence little supply, hence high prices.
You think think cocaine is hard to come by in Australia?
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy