I think a bubble may develop too, especially if interest rates remain at current levels for a while. I'm not concerned about it though since I would benefit financially if we do get a bubble.
What you mean is that you be bailed out of the IO trap you are stuck in shadow. Well at least you're being honest for once, coming out and stating that your business model is Ponzi based.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market. What else is he wrong about?
Shoddy Seems you may have to discuss your 2003 bullshit with CJ and get him back on side. His charts call a massive BS to you and the reason only a fool would start any argument from 2003. :-)
Shoddy Seems you may have to discuss your 2003 bullshit with CJ and get him back on side. His charts call a massive BS to you and the reason only a fool would start any argument from 2003. :-)
A convincing thesis from Phillip J. Anderson, is that the great meltdown in bubbles finally comes when the central bankers are no longer in control of interest rates.
The critical event, is the yield curve on all the sovereign debt instruments that are the main means of monetary inflation, “inverting”.
This is because investors believe that inflation is inevitable, which is because of the buildup in money supply. Also a contributor, is the expectation among at least some investors, that there is going to be a default (government debt reaching unmanageable levels) but this is not essential.
Mortgage lenders tend to then be guided by the higher interest rates on the long term securities that are part of the monetary system, and no amount of low-interest-rate money from the central bank here and now, will change them. Mortgage interest rates go up – and BOOM!!!!
The yield curve can invert without this being the outcome, but the big bust always comes after such an occurrence. No yield curve inversion, no bust imminent.
Another sad feature of this thesis, is that the time frame for this to happen is always so long that the bears have been made a laughing stock and no-one is listening to them any more. Hence, the absolute maximum number of people have piled in, including FHB’s who have given up waiting for the crash – and they will have been enticed in by some special offer in the form of subsidies or new ultra-tiny “first homes” (that will still cost them a million dollars and be worth $100,000 after the crash).
It gives me no pleasure to concede that I have been persuaded by this thesis, against my earlier “bust sooner rather than later” position.
So who is this Anderson guy? What's his background?
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
Que? Because most narcotics are illegal - ie, the *greatest* extent of government regulation imaginable, the prices charged/paid are many many multiples of what prices for those substances would otherwise be in a legal, open and free market.
Wrong. Narcotics are cheap because they are illegal. If they were legal, you would need to get a licence to sell them, and a premises to sell them out of, and pay taxes on your profits. Because the profits are high, they attract a lot of participants, and because they are easy to produce, it is almost impossible for any one supplier/vendor to gain monopoly control over the market. For these reasons, the prices charged/paid are much lower than they would otherwise be in a regulated market.
Narcotics prices have also proven to be very resistant to inflation. They can go decades without a change in price.
------------------------------ " ... which is that all-too-familiar dynamic in Irish life where people tell lies, cover them up and create all sorts of collateral damage, sometimes spread out over decades, and never take responsibility." - Alan Glynn
Wrong. Narcotics are cheap because they are illegal. If they were legal, you would need to get a licence to sell them, and a premises to sell them out of, and pay taxes on your profits. Because the profits are high, they attract a lot of participants, and because they are easy to produce, it is almost impossible for any one supplier/vendor to gain monopoly control over the market. For these reasons, the prices charged/paid are much lower than they would otherwise be in a regulated market.
You're wrong, the costs you list are small relative to the costs of weapons, bodyguards, contract killing, bribes, and overall risk premium.
You're wrong, the costs you list are small relative to the costs of weapons, bodyguards, contract killing, bribes, and overall risk premium.
No, you are wrong. Plenty of studies have been done on this by economists. Because drugs are illegal, they are cheap. * The workforce is not well paid (read Freakonomics, street dealers earn less than burger flippers). * Weapons are a capital cost, not an expense. You can buy a pistol for less than one months rent in a traditional business. * Bribes make up less than 10% of topline revenue. * There is no income tax, payroll tax, sales tax, workers compensation insurance, office/retail space, unfair dismissal suits in the whole of the supply chain. * Narcotics street prices have remained fairly constant for 30 years. The only variations have been around the beginning and end of the Vietnam war and the beginning and end of the war in Afghanistan.
------------------------------ " ... which is that all-too-familiar dynamic in Irish life where people tell lies, cover them up and create all sorts of collateral damage, sometimes spread out over decades, and never take responsibility." - Alan Glynn
Que? Because most narcotics are illegal - ie, the *greatest* extent of government regulation imaginable, the prices charged/paid are many many multiples of what prices for those substances would otherwise be in a legal, open and free market.
Looking at the price of baccy, I reckon Ned's most likely 'rolled you up' re this argument Sydney? ...
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer:"negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
No, you are wrong. Plenty of studies have been done on this by economists. Because drugs are illegal, they are cheap. * The workforce is not well paid (read Freakonomics, street dealers earn less than burger flippers). * Weapons are a capital cost, not an expense. You can buy a pistol for less than one months rent in a traditional business. * Bribes make up less than 10% of topline revenue. * There is no income tax, payroll tax, sales tax, workers compensation insurance, office/retail space, unfair dismissal suits in the whole of the supply chain. * Narcotics street prices have remained fairly constant for 30 years. The only variations have been around the beginning and end of the Vietnam war and the beginning and end of the war in Afghanistan.
Cocaine in Colombia is $3 a gram Cocaine in Australia is $300 a gram
Please explain this.
Collecting desperation. Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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