No, the best bit about this part of the cycle is listening to hopeless greedy idiots imploding on your own stupidity. This is the sort of deluded crap that right wing 'intellectuals' like Francis Fukuyama were throwing about before the last bubble popped.
Hey there John boy, did you actually notice that the deluded article that I posted was written before the crash?
LOL. Classic. Homer was interviewed a while back and he had morphed into a property speculator. He didn't even believe his own theories any longer because they conflicted wih his investment plans.
Here, explain the 1920-1950 period with the 18 year cycle. If you can do that then you know what coming next. Better yet, start at 1890
Here, explain the 1920-1950 period with the 18 year cycle. If you can do that then you know what coming next. Better yet, start at 1890
Better still lets go back to 1800 and see what land prices have done, the original article did say that the 18 year cycle didn't apply during both of the world wars. It has been right on the money since the end of them though.
LOL. Classic. Homer was interviewed a while back and he had morphed into a property speculator. He didn't even believe his own theories any longer because they conflicted wih his investment plans.
Here, explain the 1920-1950 period with the 18 year cycle. If you can do that then you know what coming next. Better yet, start at 1890
Your graph shows just how big of a bubble Australia's house prices are in.
Dwarfs the US housing bubble , but so does our wages bubble.
If its right ( and its not, its total crap) why don't you tell us a bit more about the Voodoo you bought into and let us decide for ourselves?
Your one liner replies do not indicate you have confidence in your economic ( no sniggering at the back) theory.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
If its right ( and its not, its total crap) why don't you tell us a bit more about the Voodoo you bought into and let us decide for ourselves?
Your one liner replies do not indicate you have confidence in your economic ( no sniggering at the back) theory.
How can an indisputable historical fact be total crap?
As for my one liners I did link to some writings on this, lets not forget there are many books written about it and also its not my theory I merely observe it. There is absolutely zero burden on me to convince you of anything. As for my confidence in the land price cycle, well I vote with my feet on that one.
While our competitors wish to grab headlines by stating one month the market is falling and will slow, then the next month reporting “the strongest growth since 2007”, we on the other hand, have been very consistent and accurate on our market observations.
It is clear for all to see that the market remains strong on the east coast of Australia, however the mining exposed cities are by and large, having a downturn that will likely persist for some time yet.
The number of Australian residential property listings increased during August, perking up after a substantial dip in listings during July.
Nationally, the number of unsold properties on the market has been recorded at 347,646 for August 2014 – a -3.8% increase month-on-month and -2.1% decrease year-on-year.
Key Points
Total online residential listings increased during the month of August, recording a rise of 3.8% and coming to a total of 347, 546. This figure represents a decrease of -2.1% when compared to the corresponding period of the previous year (August 2013). Darwin recorded the highest monthly increase in stock levels of all the capital cities, increasing by 8.7% during August 2014 and coming to a total of 1,719. Hobart recorded the only monthly decrease in stock levels, falling by 0.4% and coming to a total of 4,045. Darwin was the capital city to record the highest yearly increase in stock levels, climbing 19% since the corresponding period of the previous year (August 2013). Sydney has recorded the most substantial yearly decrease in stock levels, falling by -9.4% since the corresponding period of the previous year (August 2013) and coming to a total of 22,748.
Of particular growing importance, is the narrowing difference in the yearly decrease of stock on market, where an ongoing trend has now become evident.
Indeed we are not seeing the large drop in stock levels year on year, as we were at approximately this time last year, when the market (east coast predominantly) initially began to boom.
With the amount of stock steadying year on year, SQM Research believes there is no further acceleration in market momentum beyond what is already in existence.
However it should be noted August’s monthly rise in listings for sale, is most likely due to seasonality, with the spring selling season approaching.
Further to this, SQM Research’s Asking Prices Index has revealed the only capital city to record monthly increases in vendor sentiment on both houses and units was Melbourne, with the remainder of the capital cities recording mixed results.
Not once was there a question why only such a limited amount of lots were released.
There is now a shortage of land because it takes time to get land to the market. Eejits who were spruiking doom and gloom since 2007 are very much responsible for this. There is now a huge backlog of home building and young people are having to buy and build in a much more competitive environment.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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