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Strongest winter for house sales in 7 years
Topic Started: 1 Sep 2014, 12:12 PM (3,205 Views)
stinkbug
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Veritas
1 Sep 2014, 01:47 PM
Not 2026? or 2024?

Did you read that gem of Voodoo economics from a get rich through property investment fanzine?
Is that prediction any different to people like Steve Keen who were calling a 40% drop? There were people at the time who were 100% sure it would start during 2008, and anyone who disagreed was scoffed at.

Nobody has a crystal ball.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Dr Watson
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Bardon
1 Sep 2014, 12:52 PM
This current land price cycle wont peak until 2025.
Could you please elaborate on why you believe that?
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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Bardon
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Dr Watson
1 Sep 2014, 02:24 PM
Could you please elaborate on why you believe that?
Its the Homer Hoyt Eighteen Year Real Estate Cycle, you can set your watch by it. Next peak is 2025.

http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/the-real-estate-cycle-where-are-we-now-59319.aspx
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ThePauk
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Bardon
1 Sep 2014, 03:17 PM
Its the Homer Hoyt Eighteen Year Real Estate Cycle, you can set your watch by it. Next peak is 2025.

http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/the-real-estate-cycle-where-are-we-now-59319.aspx
lol. what bs, an 18 year cycle without any consideration of demographic changes, immigration changes etc. This is simply bs.
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Dr Watson
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stinkbug
1 Sep 2014, 02:18 PM
Is that prediction any different to people like Steve Keen who were calling a 40% drop?
Bardon is the mirror-image of Steve Keen.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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Bardon
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ThePauk
1 Sep 2014, 03:31 PM
lol. what bs, an 18 year cycle without any consideration of demographic changes, immigration changes etc. This is simply bs.
It may be bs to you, but it is right.
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stinkbug
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ThePauk
1 Sep 2014, 03:31 PM
lol. what bs, an 18 year cycle without any consideration of demographic changes, immigration changes etc. This is simply bs.
"What goes up, must come down".
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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newjez
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jesusjones
1 Sep 2014, 12:12 PM
I really thought things would start to simmer down sometime
Soon? How long can this keep going?

http://m.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/house-prices-strongest-winter-in-7-years/story-fn3dxity-1227043581623
As I've said previously, why would it stop? Many called an end to Sydney's bull run because houses seemed a bit high. But with no changes in fundamentals, and possible rate reductions, why would it stop?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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ThePauk
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Bardon
1 Sep 2014, 03:44 PM
It may be bs to you, but it is right.
ok, I will bite, show me the chart that proves a mystery 18 year cycle...otherwise, you fail!
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Mike
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newjez
1 Sep 2014, 04:06 PM
As I've said previously, why would it stop? Many called an end to Sydney's bull run because houses seemed a bit high. But with no changes in fundamentals, and possible rate reductions, why would it stop?
When you compare Australia cities to many in Asia we are cheap in terms of size of properties, land and the liveability of our cities and environment. What price do you put on this, we take it for granted. Sydney has become an international city, like London it attracts a lot of international attention, businesses and buyers. Of course not on the same scale.

Melbourne is rapidly catching up to Sydney and is predicted to over take Sydney in population and economic importance into the future. So looking long term Melbourne might offer higher growth over a longer time frame. I love Melbourne, I fully understand why it has been voted the worlds most liveable city 4 years straight.

Australia's economy importance and size has also increased, we are no longer a small power but a middle ranked economy and power. Australia has a $1.5 trillion economy vs Russia at $2 trillion, yet we have 1/7th the population. This either shows how good we are doing or how poorly Russia is doing in comparison.

Our currency is also high, what happened when our currency falls back to long term trends of say 75-80c, international buying will only increase as our properties become more affordable to overseas buyers. This will start to happen when the US begins increasing interest rates.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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