I really thought things would start to simmer down sometime Soon? How long can this keep going?
There was a pertinent comment made on another thread:
Quote:
The Australian property market can continue to rise unaligned with local incomes if it is coming from outside the economy.
Have you ever been to Hong Kong? I suggest that you jump on a plane to HK and spend a couple of days looking at the market here. Your eyes will be opened to the possible impact of inflows of RMB. Your view will change after you come to HK.
There is major change happening in Beijing. The Communist party is in its final years and the party members know it. "Elites" have had 50 years to strip all the capital from the country and now these billions of dollars are like a target around their neck cometh the revolution.
The internet is taking hold in China and the workers will no longer tolerate seeing obscene wealth juxtaposed with their own meagre standard of living. HK, Canada, Singapore and the US have all legislated to discourage the influx of the parties member's 4 trillion dollars of wealth.
That just leaves Australia and England. Watch this space....
I think the answer to your question very much depends on the amount of foreign money coming into the local market.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
Could you please elaborate on why you believe that?
Its called motivational bias.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
This current land price cycle wont peak until 2025.
Not 2026? or 2024?
Did you read that gem of Voodoo economics from a get rich through property investment fanzine?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
This current land price cycle wont peak until 2025.
Wow, you really are a whack job.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Why ? Because it will be about then when the Gov will be forced screaming and kicking to re constitute the massive public housing schemes of the 1960's due to political pressure.
By 2030 you should see some impact on the market.
But from here on, expect another 10 years of solid growth in RE, especially in rent price growth,
Time stops for nobody. Bears on this forum should of bought years ago.
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