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Bulls turn into Bears; The consensus has changed.
Topic Started: 31 Aug 2014, 08:08 PM (3,643 Views)
ThePauk
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Shadow
1 Sep 2014, 01:04 PM
No... fortunately property isn't that volatile and risky.


As usual with shares, most people keep quiet about their losing shares and we only hear (retrospectively) about their winners.
And you think that is different for property?....lol
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b_b
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ThePauk
1 Sep 2014, 01:04 PM
Nope, correct stock.
Just got to know when to get in and out. I am out for now at 24.5cents and had no intention of holding long. If they drop again to under 20cents, I will be back in.
And its far less risky than property?
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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Shadow
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ThePauk
1 Sep 2014, 01:06 PM
And you think that is different for property?....lol
Most property investors only hold one property, so the one you hear about is usually the only one they've got.

Whereas it's very rare for share investors to only hold one company.

So yes, I do think it's different for property.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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stinkbug
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b_b
1 Sep 2014, 01:09 PM
And its far less risky than property?
I think risk management is a widely misunderstood concept, and that is clearly shown in a lot of the posts I see on this forum.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Count du Monet
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Dr Watson
1 Sep 2014, 12:02 PM
That would be wonderful if it were true, but unfortunately house prices are surging. How can we slow it down?
You believe such nonsense! According to the RE industry house prices are always surging and double every 7 years. They cherry pick the exception and palm that off as the usual.

Look at the indices down below, mostly no different than they were in 2010!!! :lol

This is in general, a dead decade! :D

The strong period of price growth was 1999 to 2003. After that it was slower going until 2010. Now it is dead!

The good times will return, but give it a few years!
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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newjez
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Shadow
1 Sep 2014, 12:33 PM
Sydney is up 50% since 2009.

50% in five years is half way to doubling in ten years, which is consistent with average growth over the past seven decades.
Is the doubling every ten years that all bulls deny ever having mentioned?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Shadow
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Quote:
 
Is the doubling every ten years that all bulls deny ever having mentioned?
No. Prices don't double every ten years.

But if you look at the growth over the past seven decade, it averages out at around 8% per annum, which is pretty close to doubling every 10 years on average over that period.
Edited by Shadow, 1 Sep 2014, 04:21 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Dr Watson
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ThePauk
1 Sep 2014, 01:04 PM
Just got to know when to get in and out. I am out for now at 24.5cents and had no intention of holding long. If they drop again to under 20cents, I will be back in.
Let us know when you buy back in. Not afterwards. At the time. Lest you start to remind us of Chris Becker's Live Trades.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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ThePauk
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Dr Watson
1 Sep 2014, 04:23 PM
Let us know when you buy back in. Not afterwards. At the time. Lest you start to remind us of Chris Becker's Live Trades.
Sure, have a buy order at 19.5 cents again.... although I doubt it will fall again given the restructure and the likely NBN contracts...
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Veritas
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Shadow
1 Sep 2014, 04:20 PM
No. Prices don't double every ten years.

But if you look at the growth over the past seven decade, it averages out at around 8% per annum, which is pretty close to doubling every 10 years on average over that period.
Why not look at it over the last ten decades?

Why seven?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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