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Vladimir Putin has absorbed the West's 'consequences' and stepped up his aggression
Topic Started: 31 Aug 2014, 04:47 PM (1,058 Views)
Black Panther
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Vladimir Putin has absorbed the West's 'consequences' and stepped up his aggression

When Barack Obama arrives in the Estonian capital of Tallinn early this week to meet the presidents of the three Baltic States, he will come bearing the gift of assurances.

Framed against a glorious medieval backdrop, Mr Obama will promise that while their nations may indeed be small, and newcomers to Nato, the United States and the major European military powers "mean what we say" when it comes to honouring Nato's mutual defence pact.

As any parent will tell you, when an authority figure warns that "I mean what I say" it's almost always a sign that the object of such threats - in this case Russian president Vladimir Putin - has good reason to doubt the truth of that statement, or at least to test whether or not it is true.

The feeble response of both Europe and America to the events of the last week in Ukraine will have given precious little comfort to those Baltic leaders, while further emboldening Mr Putin in his belief that the West is weak.



By ordering a de facto invasion of Ukraine a week before Nato leaders meet for their summit in Wales, Mr Putin was flaunting the fact that he well understood the limits of European and American efforts to dissuade him from action.

As any strongman would, when sentenced to recession by Washington and Brussels, Mr Putin has taken the stinging slap without showing a trace of pain (even though his economy is hurting) and then hit back again, daring the West to go further.

This was not a gamble on the Russian president's part. As one US official despaired privately: "If Putin is immune to economic pain and we are not willing to use military force, then he's got us in check mate, doesn't he?"

Given events in Ukraine, the Baltic leaders could be forgiven for feeling more than a little nervous about the quality of Western assurances these days.

Ukraine is not a member of Nato, so we don't - to quote Mr Obama last week - stand "shoulder to shoulder" with them in the same way that we stand "shoulder to shoulder" with Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia under Article 5 of the Nato treaty.

European leaders talk tough - David Cameron threatens "consequences", Angela Merkel demands more sanctions, Francois Hollande says the Russian incursion is "intolerable" - and yet, as with the annexation of Crimea, that is exactly what we are being forced to tolerate.

We have clearly - and correctly most people would agree - made the calculation that we are not prepared to go war over Ukraine. Nor (unlike Mr Putin) are we prepared to suffer the recession and energy crisis that would be precipitated by inflicting extreme, crippling sanctions on Russia.

That is the cold reality and so far, many will argue, so good. If Mr Putin stops at Ukraine, it would have been reckless to face lay-offs and stock-market slumps in order to stand on a point of principle over a country that many instinctively consider part of the Russian sphere of influence anyway.

But what if Mr Putin took further steps in his quest to restore his vision of Russian greatness? Would the electorates of Europe and America take a similarly supine and hard-nosed view about "humanitarian" incursions into say, Moldova or Armenia or Azerbaijan. What then?

What indeed. The leaders of the Baltic States have good reason to be wary: their countries were annexed by Stalin in 1940, invaded by Hitler in 1941 and then invaded again by the Red Army at the close of the Second World War, and now have large populations of ethnic Russians descended from Soviet-era migrants.

It is a question that, in his more insane moments, a scornful Vladimir Putin, no doubt asks himself: how much blood and treasure are the comfortable citizens of Europe's main powers really prepared to shed over Estonia, or Lithuania, or little Latvia?

"A lot" - indeed, "everything"- will come the resounding cry from Nato leaders when they meet in Wales this week, offering by way of further concrete reassurance Mr Obama's warm words and some additional air and naval exercises around Poland and the Baltics.

And yet, even as they make their promises, most of Europe's powers will be quibbling over their obligation to spend two per cent of GDP on maintaining defence.

Britain, which does spend two per cent, remains without an operational aircraft carrier until 2020, and Germany (which spends just 1.3 per cent of GDP but is planning further cuts) maintains an air force at almost comical levels of disrepair, according to an investigation by Der Spiegel last week.

As Mr Putin demonstrates almost daily, now, in his smash-and-grab raids on Ukraine, actions speak louder than words.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-politics/11065494/Vladimir-Putin-has-absorbed-the-Wests-consequences-and-stepped-up-his-aggression.html
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van
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http://macedoniaonline.eu/content/view/25981/53/

Dutch Intellectuals Apologize to Putin for Lies on MH17, Syria, Ukraine...

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A letter sent by a prominent Dutch Professor to Russian president Vladimir Putin has attracted much media attention in Europe. The letter was written by Professor Cees Hamelink and signed by dozens of Dutch intellectuals and professors. Below is the letter in its entirety.

Dear Mr. President Putin,

Please accept our apologies on behalf of a great many people here in the Netherlands for our Government and our Media. The facts concerning MH17 are twisted to defame you and your country.

We are powerless onlookers, as we witness how the Western Nations, led by the United States, accuse Russia of crimes they commit themselves more than anybody else. We reject the double standards that are used for Russia and the West. In our societies, sufficient evidence is required for a conviction. The way you and your Nation are convicted for 'crimes' without evidence, is ruthless and despicable.

You have saved us from a conflict in Syria that could have escalated into a World War. The mass killing of innocent Syrian civilians through gassing by ‘Al-­‐Qaeda’ terrorists, trained and armed by the US and paid for by Saudi Arabia, was blamed on Assad. In doing so, the West hoped public opinion would turn against Assad, paving the way for an attack on Syria.

Not long after this, Western forces have built up, trained and armed an ‘opposition’ in the Ukraine, to prepare a coup against the legitimate Government in Kiev. The putschists taking over were quickly recognized by Western Governments. They were provided with loans from our tax money to prop their new Government up.

The people of the Crimea did not agree with this and showed this with peaceful demonstrations. Anonymous snipers and violence by Ukrainian troops turned these demonstrations into demands for independence from Kiev. Whether you support these separatist movements is immaterial, considering the blatant Imperialism of the West.

Russia is wrongly accused, without evidence or investigation, of delivering the weapons systems that allegedly brought down MH17. For this reason Western Governments claim they have a right to economically pressure Russia.

We, awake citizens of the West, who see the lies and machinations of our Governments, wish to offer you our apologies for what is done in our name.
It’s unfortunately true, that our media have lost all independence and are just mouthpieces for the Powers that Be. Because of this, Western people tend to have a warped view of reality and are unable to hold their politicians to account.


Our hopes are focused on your wisdom. We want Peace. We see that Western Governments do not serve the people but are working towards a New World Order. The destruction of sovereign nations and the killing of millions of innocent people is, seemingly, a price worth paying for them, to achieve this goal.

We, the people of the Netherlands, want Peace and Justice, also for and with Russia.
We hope to make clear that the Dutch Government speaks for itself only. We pray our efforts will help to diffuse the rising tensions between our Nations.

Sincerely,

Professor Cees Hamelink
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Mike
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My view is Obama and the West are playing it very smart.

Would we want world leaders to rush off and start World War III or would we prefer diplomacy, sanctions and a slow escalation which can be stoped rather then the rapid descent into perhaps Nuclear conflict.

The tone has changed this week in Europe, German, French & British governments all mentioned that time is running out to avert a military conflict in Europe. A point will be reached soon in which NATO will have to respond.

Russia is likely to enter recession soon, but further harsh sanctions could send Russia into a depression while only having minimal impact on European and US economies. The EU estimates a full embargo on Russia would take off 1% of EU GDP while shrinking Russia's by 10% in 1 year and 25% over the longer term.

The question is should the West go to War or simply watch Russia's economy and state crumble over coming years due to recession and perhaps depression.

NATO should move substantial forces into Poland and the Baltics, start massing forces close to Russia's border to begin to give Putin other options to think about. The US could move large forces into Western Ukraine as a shield against further aggression. This all takes us down a slippery slope of a world wide war.

If Russia is not stoped this time and gobbles up eastern Ukraine or more, what next? We have seen this in the 1930's. Delaying conflict now only leads to a larger conflict in the future.

Obama should use his vastly superior military power and call Putin's bluff. However Obama wont even commit to taking on ISIS let alone Russia.

The situation is very fluid and this could spiral out of control in a matter of days.

Edited by Mike, 31 Aug 2014, 05:35 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Drgonzo
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Mike
31 Aug 2014, 05:33 PM
My view is Obama and the West are playing it very smart.

Would we want world leaders to rush off and start World War III or would we prefer diplomacy, sanctions and a slow escalation which can be stoped rather then the rapid descent into perhaps Nuclear conflict.

The tone has changed this week in Europe, German, French & British governments all mentioned that time is running out to avert a military conflict in Europe. A point will be reached soon in which NATO will have to respond.

Russia is likely to enter recession soon, but further harsh sanctions could send Russia into a depression while only having minimal impact on European and US economies. The EU estimates a full embargo on Russia would take off 1% of EU GDP while shrinking Russia's by 10% in 1 year and 25% over the longer term.

The question is should the West go to War or simply watch Russia's economy and state crumble over coming years due to recession and perhaps depression.

NATO should move substantial forces into Poland and the Baltics, start massing forces close to Russia's border to begin to give Putin other options to think about. The US could move large forces into Western Ukraine as a shield against further aggression. This all takes us down a slippery slope of a world wide war.

If Russia is not stoped this time and gobbles up eastern Ukraine or more, what next? We have seen this in the 1930's. Delaying conflict now only leads to a larger conflict in the future.

Obama should use his vastly superior military power and call Putin's bluff. However Obama wont even commit to taking on ISIS let alone Russia.

The situation is very fluid and this could spiral out of control in a matter of days.

There will be no military conflict - there will be jawboning, media conferences where "deep concern" is expressed, bullshit sanctions and that's about it.
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DragonGM
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Putin is a leader. Obama is not. Obama will bluff and Putin will call his bluff. Putin will win.
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Jimbo
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DragonGM
31 Aug 2014, 07:21 PM
Putin is a leader. Obama is not. Obama will bluff and Putin will call his bluff. Putin will win.
Weren't the yanks going to sort out Syria a while back?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Jimbo
31 Aug 2014, 08:02 PM
Weren't the yanks going to sort out Syria a while back?
The main strategic gold of the US in Syria was the destruction of the chemical weapons program. This is the only aspect of the Syrian civil war which could threaten the US if it fell into the wrong hands.

The reason Obama did not bomb Syria after it crossed Obamas red line is Syria agreed to eliminate all Chemical wepaons in a Russian sponsored peace deal.

The US could achieve its main aim of destroying the chemical weapons without firing a shot, Russia kept its client states, what left of it. It was a win win deal.

Where Obama went wrong is not supporting the moderate rebels earlier, as such many of them have no joined ISIS as they want to win. Hard to see moderate rebels playing a role in Syria now.

If ISIS can take a major Syrian air base, execute hundreds of captured Syrian soldiers it can defeat Assad.

It was reported yesterday ISIS was battling Iranian Revolutionary Guards in 7 Iranian towns in the North Western Iran. ISIS is spreading like wild fire. It is almost as if every militant group is now rallying to its cause.

I do wonder if Russia and Putin should be more concerned with its south then the Ukraine, Russia has a large Muslim population to the south and even larger Muslim neighbours.

It was also reported that ISIS is attempting to push into Lebanon and took a few towns on the border and Israeli forces have seen ISIS flags in a few villages near the Golan Heights on the Israeli border.

ISIS is also pushing south in Iraq along the Iraq/Jordan border nearing the Saudi Border. If ISIS can take areas of Saudi Arab even small towns this will mean the US will have no choice but to deploy large forces to the region and combat ISIS across the entire region. If Saudi Arabia can be attacked by ISIS it is a direct threat to the world economy and to the US.

The problem with Obama is by the time he acts the moment has often past. It is time for him to lead from the front and confront ISIS head on with massive and sustained air campaign to allow Iraqi & Kurds to keep rolling ISIS back. Begin a large aerial camping against them in Syria.
DragonGM
31 Aug 2014, 07:21 PM
Putin is a leader. Obama is not. Obama will bluff and Putin will call his bluff. Putin will win.
Obama is playing a different game. His focus is on the US and its economy. Ukraine whether most like it or not including myself is not a CORE US interest. If Russia takes part of Ukraine it does not harm the US much at all. However getting into a war over what are mostly Russian speaking people on Russia's border is not a high priority. The issue is, does this signal to Putin he can keep going, if I was Putin I would go for broke and take as much as I could as the next US president might not be so inward looking.

The long game here is Russia is in a weak position, Putin's only option is to play the military card take as much as he can over the next few years. He does not need Eastern Ukraine, he needs all of it which will go along way to restoring Russia's power or at least a strong base to build apon.

Then he should switch to bringing the caucuses and central Asia back under Russia's direct control prior to China gaining to much influence which it is at a rapid rate. Then Russia will be in a position to challenge the other leading powers. China, US, EU.
Edited by Mike, 31 Aug 2014, 08:29 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Mike
31 Aug 2014, 08:23 PM
The reason Obama did not bomb Syria after it crossed Obamas red line is Syria agreed to eliminate all Chemical wepaons in a Russian sponsored peace deal.

Or maybe it was because Europe decided not to back him and left him with runny egg all over his face?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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doubleview
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Mike
31 Aug 2014, 08:23 PM
The main strategic gold of the US in Syria was the destruction of the chemical weapons program. This is the only aspect of the Syrian civil war which could threaten the US if it fell into the wrong hands.

The reason Obama did not bomb Syria after it crossed Obamas red line is Syria agreed to eliminate all Chemical wepaons in a Russian sponsored peace deal.

The US could achieve its main aim of destroying the chemical weapons without firing a shot, Russia kept its client states, what left of it. It was a win win deal.

Where Obama went wrong is not supporting the moderate rebels earlier, as such many of them have no joined ISIS as they want to win. Hard to see moderate rebels playing a role in Syria now.

If ISIS can take a major Syrian air base, execute hundreds of captured Syrian soldiers it can defeat Assad.

It was reported yesterday ISIS was battling Iranian Revolutionary Guards in 7 Iranian towns in the North Western Iran. ISIS is spreading like wild fire. It is almost as if every militant group is now rallying to its cause.

I do wonder if Russia and Putin should be more concerned with its south then the Ukraine, Russia has a large Muslim population to the south and even larger Muslim neighbours.

It was also reported that ISIS is attempting to push into Lebanon and took a few towns on the border and Israeli forces have seen ISIS flags in a few villages near the Golan Heights on the Israeli border.

ISIS is also pushing south in Iraq along the Iraq/Jordan border nearing the Saudi Border. If ISIS can take areas of Saudi Arab even small towns this will mean the US will have no choice but to deploy large forces to the region and combat ISIS across the entire region. If Saudi Arabia can be attacked by ISIS it is a direct threat to the world economy and to the US.

The problem with Obama is by the time he acts the moment has often past. It is time for him to lead from the front and confront ISIS head on with massive and sustained air campaign to allow Iraqi & Kurds to keep rolling ISIS back. Begin a large aerial camping against them in Syria.

Obama is playing a different game. His focus is on the US and its economy. Ukraine whether most like it or not including myself is not a CORE US interest. If Russia takes part of Ukraine it does not harm the US much at all. However getting into a war over what are mostly Russian speaking people on Russia's border is not a high priority. The issue is, does this signal to Putin he can keep going, if I was Putin I would go for broke and take as much as I could as the next US president might not be so inward looking.

The long game here is Russia is in a weak position, Putin's only option is to play the military card take as much as he can over the next few years. He does not need Eastern Ukraine, he needs all of it which will go along way to restoring Russia's power or at least a strong base to build apon.

Then he should switch to bringing the caucuses and central Asia back under Russia's direct control prior to China gaining to much influence which it is at a rapid rate. Then Russia will be in a position to challenge the other leading powers. China, US, EU.
Holy fuck!! Your delusional disorder is way more advance=d than I thought!
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Mike
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Jimbo
31 Aug 2014, 08:33 PM
Or maybe it was because Europe decided not to back him and left him with runny egg all over his face?
Why Bomb when the main aim was to destroy the Chemical weapons was taken care of.

I also recall the US congress would not authorise military force just as the UK parliament also voted against it. Democracy at work.

The US gains nothing by getting involved in Syria now other then dead soldiers and wasted resources. Let those who live in the region fight for there own homes.


doubleview
31 Aug 2014, 08:34 PM
Holy fuck!! Your delusional disorder is way more advance=d than I thought!
Its called realism, you should try it one day.

Offer another point of view instead if childish one liners.

Edited by Mike, 31 Aug 2014, 09:02 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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