Weekly SEEK job ads in August point to another modest ~2% monthly gain in the ANZ job ads series (due 8 Sept, Figure 1), lifting its y/y to almost 8%, its best since 2011 (Figure 3). Despite the recent unemployment jump, this is consistent with a pick-up in jobs growth to over 1½% by end-14, usually enough to lower the unemployment rate.
The weekly BDO retail series – after forecasting the June retail rebound (Figure 2) – points to a ‘flat’ July (due 4 Sept), and a modest ~½% m/m gain in August. This is stronger than the months leading into and around the Budget, and would hold the y/y pace near 5%, above the consistently subdued 2-3% pace through 2011-2013.
The weekly Roy Morgan/ANZ consumer confidence series – based on the data through August – suggest all of the post-budget rebound in confidence will be maintained when the September WMI monthly confidence data is released (due 10 Sept, Figure 4).
Cannex home lending data suggest owner-occupier lending (due 9 Sept, Figure 5) will only edge up further for July, albeit reaching a new cycle high. Weekly housing auction clearance rates have lifted further in Sydney over recent weeks (Figure 6), but clearly weakened in Melbourne. Daily RPData-Rismark price data (Figure 7) have lifted a further 1.3% m/m (due 1 Sept), close to the 1½% gains in June & July, with the y/y pace re-accelerated to a strong 11%.
Overall, our super-leaders have – over the past couple of weeks – continued to hold onto their post-Budget rebound, and continue to point to a recovery in the economy’s momentum into Q3, after a likely slower Q2 GDP print. Our high-frequency data suggest the jobs market should show improving jobs growth, while housing activity remains buoyant, notwithstanding there are early signs Melbourne is losing momentum. Consumer confidence and spending have lifted further into August. The jump in NAB business conditions in July (Figure 8), despite the AUD’s rise, points to 3%-plus GDP growth in 2H14, after what may be a softer print for Q2 next week.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy