Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
Car industry job losses will be worse than forecast - its a national disgrace!
Topic Started: 27 Aug 2014, 03:13 PM (402 Views)
Research Time
Unregistered

Car industry job losses will be worse than forecast. Of course they will be, that part was obvious – it's a national disgrace… the story is actually worse than that. We also appear to include within these manufacturing statistics metal fabrication and one-off projects (granted very large and complex, running several years) highly related to the on-going health of the mining and LNG industries. This is factually incorrect – making our manufacturing industry appear far healthier than it really is.

One of the biggest porkies strongly pushed (by the previous Grange swilling Premier) on this front is the resurgence of Newcastle (NSW) as a template of structural renewal and high-tech manufacturing prowess. Which incidentally is complete and utter load of BS – Newcastle is (or at least one off) the largest coal terminal globally, having an enormous service industry built around maintaining numerous large-scale local coal operations.

IMHO, we take taken economic liberalism too far, to the point that we are actually endangering national sustainability – as well as social harmony, and national defence. We are taking an entirely different economic route to that of the rest of the G20.

That implies that (a) we know something they don’t; or (b) we have been led by clowns over the past decade toward economic oblivion… as for me, I tend to lean toward the latter. The problem is, it will be my children that will suffer the consequences.

The Productivity Commission released a report on the closure of the car industry which concludes.....
Quote:
 
Australia’s automotive manufacturing industry is undergoing significant change. Motor vehicle producers in Australia have not been able to survive in the highly competitive global and domestic automotive markets — Ford, Holden and Toyota have announced they will cease local manufacturing before the end of 2017.
Component manufacturers face ongoing adjustment pressure and rationalisation.
It is estimated that up to 40 000 people may lose their jobs as a result of the closure of the motor vehicle manufacturing plants and the rationalisation of firms in the supply chain. It is likely that job losses will be staggered over several years.
Decades of transitional assistance to automotive manufacturing firms ($30 billion between 1997 and 2012) has forestalled, but not prevented, the significant structural adjustment now facing the industry.
The policy rationales for industry-specific assistance to automotive manufacturing firms are weak and the economywide costs of such assistance outweigh the benefits.The Automotive Transformation Scheme should be closed after Ford, Holden and Toyota have ceased manufacturing motor vehicles in Australia.
Component manufacturing firms are currently set to receive over $300 million in industry-specific assistance between 2014 and 2017. There are both efficiency and industry equity arguments against extending assistance beyond that already committed, or introducing new assistance programs that would advantage component manufacturers ahead of other firms that face adjustment pressures.
The labour market in Australia is dynamic — many employees lose their jobs in any one year and many people who are jobless are hired. In the year ending February 2013, about 355 000 people were involuntarily retrenched across Australia.
Retrenched employees face costs associated with job search and training, and some will have lower paid or less secure jobs once re-employed. Loss of employment is particularly challenging for older people, or those with poor English proficiency or lower skill levels. While retrenched manufacturing employees may take longer on average to find re-employment than employees retrenched from other industries, within a year about two-thirds are likely to be re-employed on a full, part-time or casual basis.
Adjustment pressures are likely to be concentrated within particular regions, such as North Adelaide, parts of Melbourne and Geelong. Some affected regions already have relatively high rates of unemployment and social disadvantage.
Governments should ensure the appropriate resourcing of the delivery of generally available welfare, training and employment services for all clients in regions placed under pressure by automotive manufacturing retrenchments.
Providing adjustment assistance to retrenched automotive manufacturing employees at a level that exceeds the assistance generally available to other jobseekers raises efficiency and equity issues.
Governments should consider ways to better target assistance to retrenched employees who are likely to encounter the greatest difficulties finding re-employment.
Regional adjustment funds, infrastructure and defence spending and industry support programs are costly and ineffective ways to facilitate workforce adjustment.
The Australian Industry Group (AIG) has warned that the Productivity Commission’s (PC) is being overly optimistic in forecasting that 40,000 jobs would be lost when the Australian automotive assembly industry ceases operations in 2017.
The Australian Industry Group responds.....
Quote:
 
“The Productivity Commission’s final report into Australia’s Automotive Manufacturing Industry released today seriously underplays the impact of the end to car making in Australia and should be treated with caution,” Australian Industry Group Chief Executive Innes Willoxsaid today.

“The report fails to acknowledge that the situation facing the auto sector is not just another minor ‘adjustment’ in the economy; it represents the virtual closure of an entire industry. This will happen within a relatively short span of time and it will affect a large number of businesses, employees and communities.

“In this context, the PC Report displays a disappointing and disturbing absence of practical recommendations to help facilitate an orderly transition of businesses and people seeking to move out of the local auto supply chains, beyond the existing set policies that were devised well before the current situation emerged. This absence of practical policy advice or new recommendations seriously undermines the value of the report. As a result, the Report misses the opportunity for Australia to make the most of the considerable capabilities, skills and experiences in Australia’s auto supply chains and to avoid the wasteful destruction of those capabilities.

“The Commission predicts that 40,000 people will lose their jobs. They assume that 80% of workers in the direct auto assembly workforce plus 40% of workers in the automotive components supply chain (including components for vehicles other than passenger cars) will be retrenched. This is considerably more optimistic than other estimates of future job losses. The FCAI, for example, estimates that up to 90% of the industry will close or move offshore. The PC assumes that “firms that manufacture components for the aftermarket, export markets and buses and trucks will be largely unaffected by the closure of the motor vehicle producers”. Given the close supply relationships in this industry, however, this is a brave assumption. In the current situation of looming industry closure, it is possibly a dangerous assumption.

In the absence of active supporting measures (as recommended by the Commission), it is difficult to see how 60% of Australia’s automotive components industry will be able to survive, unaffected by the demise of local passenger car assembly, or be able to successfully transition into other opportunities. The PC’s assumption that they will be able to move into exports and/or the after-sales parts market with no additional assistance or support seems fanciful at best. These markets are already crowded and are extremely competitive, with many auto components suppliers already operating in them.

Ai Group is also very concerned about the Commission’s assumption that two thirds of the expected 40,000 retrenched auto workers will find another job. This seems to be based primarily on the experience of the 700 Mitsubishi workers who were retrenched a decade ago (2004) with the assumption that it can be replicated for the 40,000+ auto workers who are about to be retrenched. This is despite strong evidence that the national jobs market is already considerably weaker than it was a decade ago and is set to weaken further, with both Treasury and the RBA forecasting a rising national unemployment rate from here. This time around, there will be far more displaced auto workers in a very concentrated geography and with far fewer local alternative employment options, compared to when Mitsubishi closed. Among the Mitsubishi workers for example, about 10% found a new job with other auto manufacturing businesses and another 20% found work elsewhere in manufacturing. This demise of the auto assembly sector means those results simply cannot be replicated again, and certainly not for 40,000 workers.

“The Australian Industry Group strongly encourages the Government to continue talking directly to impacted businesses up and down auto supply chains in assessing the steps that can be taken to actively build opportunities both for employees and businesses over the next couple of years as the auto assemblers wind down their operations,” Mr Willox said.
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Guest
Unregistered

Its different here alright, we were the only moronic nation to lose our motor Industry, yet the US, euro still have theirs.

Instead of pull in the reigns and slow housing to focus on the economy and jobs moving forward. The government thought, fuck that, who needs jobs or an economy, lets go on a debt spruiking ponzi binge.

Another temporary measure to ensure the end result is a guaranteed disaster, theze morons should be taken out the back and shot.
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Tony
Unregistered

My labour market experience was as a Chief Analyst reporting on the labour market in the days when the NZ Labour Dept included Employment Services – sort of equivalent to Centre Link. The labour market is a lot more segregated than people realise. Those at the top with full-time salaried jobs at little risk have no understanding of those at the bottom – the day labourers who get paid if they turn up and work a full day. They do the unwanted jobs at places where there is no public transport.

Manufacturing, light industry workers and their ilk are a step up from the day labourers. Their pay is essentially the same no matter which factory and they work there because they like the boss, get treated well and all their mates are there. In NZ such people typically had 5 jobs a year – usually moving for different sets of mates.

The useful model is an airport waiting lounge. Planes arrive, unemployed get off and wait, while some may get on by being employed. The problem is that many of them do not have the right ticket to get on – 50% plus in the UK experience cited above. Moreover, the economy is slowing down, less planes are taking on staff, so the waiting room is getting bigger.

My estimate for Melbourne is that between 200,000 and 400,000 people will be laid off over the next 3 years. Most of these will not get a job. HR people in manufacturing are telling me that they are getting hundreds of applications for low level operator jobs. They are handling phone call from desperate people with engineering degrees (mining refugees) who have had no work for months, children and a mortgage.

Consequential effects will be mortgage stress, homelessness and social breakdown. Retraining is a must and assistance to help business evolve.

That won’t happen in Victoria as, for example, Port Melbourne is now the most major expensive port in Australia. The cause is significant government levies. Any state that can score such an impressive own goal is certainly not the place to establish a business.
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Create your own social network with a free forum.
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy