Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2
  • 8
Big four major bank economists deny the obvious housing bubble; It's not true until it's been officially denied, and now it has
Topic Started: 27 Aug 2014, 12:10 AM (7,477 Views)
Dr Watson
Member Avatar


John Frum
27 Aug 2014, 10:13 AM
For me they're mutually exclusive. That's why I consider my position a hedge.
I'm not sure your "position" can be described as a hedge. Sure, you're earning good money — but so what? Meanwhile, the property indices continue marching higher. Your "position" could be described as a hedge if you were — for example — shorting property-related companies on the ASX. You ideally need to be long something while the liquor is flowing ... and short something when the faeces hits the fan. It's not enough to say, "I work for a bank so my position is sound." Indeed, if a downturn should come, you might find yourself being shown the door very quickly. Contractors are often the first to be fired when there's turbulence.

Edited by Dr Watson, 27 Aug 2014, 10:31 AM.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
John Frum
Member Avatar


peter fraser
27 Aug 2014, 08:35 AM
I think that most economists are slightly left leaning, and that's probably because they can see the downside of unfettered capitalism. There are not many far right wingers amongst them, none that I can think of.
Agree, which is why their no bubble call is evidence that the narrative is fucked up now. If these economists came out and said
to middle class salary earners like myself, saving for a house but getting thumped by bracket creep and shitty savings returns that yes, maybe we should move our housing market to a rental model like Germany with better tennancy terms for renters then I would respect them more.

But they're still out peddling this 'spent to much money on ipads and coffee line' which is complete and utter rubbish.
Dr Watson
27 Aug 2014, 10:29 AM
I'm not sure your "position" can be described as a hedge. Sure, you're earning good money — but so what? Meanwhile, the property indices continue marching higher. Your "position" could be described as a hedge if you were — for example — shorting property-related companies on the ASX. You ideally need to be long something while the liquor is flowing ... and short something when the faeces hits the fan. It's not enough to say, "I work for a bank so my position is sound." Indeed, if a downturn should come, you might find yourself being shown the door very quickly. Contractors are often the first to be fired when there's turbulence.
I'm short Genworth and QBE for the timeframes we previously discussed.

Also I'm long banking contact rates and short housing medium term. How is that not a hedge? Do I need to hold an exchange traded instrument to have a position?
Edited by John Frum, 27 Aug 2014, 10:47 AM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Guest
Unregistered

Guest
27 Aug 2014, 09:13 AM
I have seen it described on wikileaks, as the biggest bubble of any asset kind ever.
I don't think wikileaks has anything to say about Oz house prices.
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
noopsy05
Default APF Avatar


If there was a housing crash all of you bears would still be wrong because you called it 10 years ago, and price would only drop to around 2009 price...
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Dr Watson
Member Avatar


John Frum
27 Aug 2014, 10:29 AM
I'm short Genworth and QBE for the timeframes we previously discussed.

Also I'm long banking contact rates and short housing medium term. How is that not a hedge? Do I need to hold am exchange traded instrument to have a position?
You're not "long banking contract rates". You're receiving compensation from your employer for work performed. The contract rate you're being paid is a function of supply and demand in the I.T. contracting market. It's got little to nothing to do with house prices.
Edited by Dr Watson, 27 Aug 2014, 10:50 AM.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Guest
Unregistered

John Frum
27 Aug 2014, 10:13 AM
For me they're mutually exclusive. That's why I consider my position a
Could you provide a link to wikileaks so we could see it described like that too?
Morning frumpy, the link is below for you below.There is plenty of reality there for you.

Its in the time frame subsection at the bottom. You would be very interested in the timecrame amugnst other things there. Look over the timeframe and compare it to the US one on the wikisite on there one.



2014: Data released by RP Data, APM, Residex and ABS in 2014 showed that Australian house prices continued to rise strongly throughout 2013 and 2014. This means the great Australian housing bubble has been expanding unsustainably for well over two decades, since the early-nineties, making it the largest, longest lasting and most dangerous bubble (of any type) that has ever existed anywhere in the world in known history.



http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_property_bubble

"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Dr Watson
Member Avatar


Guest
27 Aug 2014, 10:51 AM
That's Wikipedia, not wikileaks, you dumb f--k.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


Dr Watson
27 Aug 2014, 10:49 AM
You're not "long banking contract rates". You're receiving compensation from your employer for work performed. The contract rate you're being paid is a function of supply and demand in the I.T. contracting market. It's got little to nothing to do with house prices.
The banks pay well because they need the very best in IT, and the work is more challenging than the run of the mill IT work, and the combination of the extra challenge and the pay rates attracts the best.

I can't blame John for staying in Sydney, nothing like that in the other cities.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Dr Watson
Member Avatar


peter fraser
27 Aug 2014, 10:58 AM
The banks pay well because they need the very best in IT, and the work is more challenging than the run of the mill IT work, and the combination of the extra challenge and the pay rates attracts the best.

I can't blame John for staying in Sydney, nothing like that in the other cities.
I'd put it this way: The banks don't pay their contractors good money because house prices are rising. The thought process is not, "Let's give all our I.T. contractors an extra $10 / hour because Sydney house prices are doing well." The banks pay the going rate for contractors who have the requisite skills.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


Dr Watson
27 Aug 2014, 11:08 AM
I'd put it this way: The banks don't pay their contractors good money because house prices are rising. The thought process is not, "Let's give all our I.T. contractors an extra $10 / hour because Sydney house prices are doing well." The banks pay the going rate for contractors who have the requisite skills.
I agree with that. Banks and large financial institutions can't afford to have their clients lose confidence in their portals or trading platforms. Good times or bad they would quickly lose market share and create a lot of PR headaches for themselves if they scrimped a few dollars on their software development and stress testing.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Join the millions that use us for their forum communities. Create your own forum today.
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2
  • 8



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy