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WA Credit Rating Downgraded Again - Moody's
Topic Started: 25 Aug 2014, 04:29 PM (5,442 Views)
Jimbo
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Mike
26 Aug 2014, 04:26 PM
I have no doubt construction is increasing, it is very welcome. However the statements by Jimbo in recent about FHB buying more new constructions then established houses is plain false as the data shows. Despite his claims of mates in construction told him so.


Mike,

You are doing what you do and arguing for the sake of argument.

I sold in June to take advantage of a an increase in activity in the local established home market by FHO's wanting to avoid having to pay additional stamp duty on properties above 430k which kicked in on July 1st. I could also see an increase in rental vacancies plus a lot of high end property languishing on the market doing nothing.

I said that FHO's were now favouring new build over established due to both the grant changes last year and the stamp duty changes this year.

It may have appeared that I said "more FHO's buy more new houses than buy established houses" but that is not what I said or what I meant.

I sold my house based on data I have studied plus things I was seeing happening in the wider economy. I didn't decide to sell and rent on a whim.

I could see a clear trend towards FHO's favouring new build over established and a 25% or so sustained swing in less than twelve months is pretty convincing.

Mike
 
Why are you talking about 457 Visas? They are not part of Australia's permanent residents or citizens.

457 Visas are a temporary working Visa and once the contract is completed those people return home. They can apply for permanent residency but the conditions are very strict.


Why have you gone quiet on the 457 thing Mike? Your statement above is pure hogshit? Why no attempt to justify it?

I know it must be hard seeing your little empire on the verge of collapse but shit happens Mike. Learn to deal with it.
Edited by Jimbo, 26 Aug 2014, 05:23 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Jimbo
26 Aug 2014, 04:56 PM
Mike,

You are doing what you do and arguing for the sake of argument.

I sold in June to take advantage of a an increase in activity the local established home market by FHO's wanting to avoid having to pay additional stamp duty on properties above 430k which kicked in on July 1st. I could also see an increase in rental vacancies plus a lot of high end property languishing on the market doing nothing.

I said that FHO's were now favouring new build over established due to both the grant changes last year and the stamp duty changes this year.

It may have appeared that I said "more FHO's buy more new houses than buy established houses" but that is not what I said or what I meant.

I sold my house based on data I have studied plus things I was seeing happening in the wider economy. I didn't decide to sell and rent on a whim.

I could see a clear trend towards FHO's favouring new build over established and a 25% or so sustained swing in less than twelve months is pretty convincing.




Why have you gone quiet on the 457 thing Mike? Your statement above is pure hogshit? Why no attempt to justify it?

I know it must be hard seeing your little empire on the verge of collapse but shit happens Mike. Learn to deal with it.
You have a clear history of making statements as if they are Gospel, then back tracking to give yourself wiggle room. Nice back tracking.

I will take your back tracking, flip flopping as you have now conceding more established homes are selling then FHB are buying new builds. Thankyou.

You have changed your tune from new home buyers are building more house NOW then buying established NOW to its a trend and it may continue into the future. You also now want to talk about Historical data when a week ago you did not want a bar of it. Well done.

After a few weeks and countless posts you are now at the position I had all along and stated as such.


Veritas
26 Aug 2014, 04:39 PM


Yes, as it has always been FTBs buy more established than new.

My point is that there is a noticeable and sustained rise in the number of FTBS buying new in the last year or so.

That is new and a result, it seems to me, of government policy.

Note also that fact that total FTB numbers are now beginning to trend down.

Another sign of deteriorating fundamentals.
Then why did you say this?

Quote:
 
Mike,

I'm not sure what the argument is here.

The fact is that FTBs are favouring new builds over established as the reorientation of the grants and stamp duty regime intended them to do.


I know home construction has been increasing as I talked about this over a year ago when you all said I was wrong. New home construction is welcome and a good sign. Thats not the issue.

FHB numbers have been increasing since the start of the year, what planet you on. http://australianpropertyforum.com/post/?mode=2&type=2&f=3210735&t=10158305&p=8503214&qhash=d69fc30b3492b1e847df43accec529ab

FHB sales just recorded the 3rd highest monthly rate in 2 years. They are the highest for all of 2014 to date. FHB sales are increasing. Are you blind?

So I take it you think if FHB are decreasing that is a sign the WA economy is slowing. So clearly as FHB are increasing this is a sign the WA fundementals are now improving. Cant have it both ways so which is?

Quote:
 
FHB Grants paid.

Established New Total
Aug-12 1,170 398 1,568
Sep-12 1,069 390 1,459
Oct-12 1,153 437 1,590
Nov-12 1,250 460 1,710
Dec-12 1,094 396 1,490
Jan-13 1,163 328 1,491
Feb-13 1,041 475 1,516
Mar-13 1,206 460 1,666
Apr-13 1,273 458 1,731
May-13 1,435 537 1,972
Jun-13 1,198 483 1,681
Jul-13 1,320 533 1,853
Aug-13 1,188 541 1,729
Sep-13 1,169 485 1,654
Oct-13 1,339 630 1,969
Nov-13 1,103 618 1,721
Dec-13 991 467 1,458
Jan-14 1,040 471 1,511
Feb-14 858 577 1,435
Mar-14 935 580 1,515
Apr-14 998 551 1,549
May-14 1,056 692 1,748
Jun-14 1,007 657 1,664
Jul-14 1,148 707 1,855


http://www.treasury.wa.gov.au/cms/TwoColumns_Content.aspx?pageid=13730&id=641

Jimbo
26 Aug 2014, 04:56 PM
Why have you gone quiet on the 457 thing Mike? Your statement above is pure hogshit? Why no attempt to justify it?

I know it must be hard seeing your little empire on the verge of collapse but shit happens Mike. Learn to deal with it.
There is not much to talk about.

You are trying to claim population is in decline when growth has slowed from all time highs. WA population has been booming and as only slowed slightly from these all time highs.

Lets talk population growth, we have already debated it here many times but just for you lets do it all over again. Tell me what is the % difference in population growth now over WA long term population growth. Tell me that rather then cherry picking one small part of overall population growth.

Lets debate population growth in its entirety not just one segement.
Edited by Mike, 26 Aug 2014, 05:32 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Mike, 7 Aug 2014
11:27 AM
At present I think the Perth market is well balanced. First home buyers are back in force with close to record sales volumes with FHBG over the last 2 months. This will feed into upgraders markets in the coming months as FHB have bought 75% established houses.
You sure you are being consistent Mike?
Edited by Jimbo, 26 Aug 2014, 05:44 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Perthite
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Jimbo
26 Aug 2014, 05:40 PM
You sure you are being consistent Mike?
You might hurt his feelings....

Austerity here we come.
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Mike
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Jimbo
26 Aug 2014, 05:40 PM
You sure you are being consistent Mike?
Yes. I was much closer then you, The exact figure is 62%.

Can you provide a link to me to show FHB construction sales are higher then established?
Can you show us a link as to where we can get negative equity loans as you describe them from an Australian Bank?
Can you provide a link to show the house you watched so closely for 7 years was adervertised for $1.2 million rather then $975,000 in 2007/8 and again in 2011 at $800,000 instead of $595,000.

You are great at making sensationalist stories but very poor with providing proof of your claims, when other prove you wrong with data you claim the data is wrong and attack the source. Classic example of a some one telling unsubstantiated stories.

Edited by Mike, 26 Aug 2014, 06:49 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Mike, I am sure I saw you say somewhere yesterday that the GFC was not caused by debt.

I would like to point out that if this was your claim, then you are horribly wrong.

The debt is the exact cause of the GFC.

Just wondering, if you dont think debt caused the gfc, what do you think did ?
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Mike
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Jimbo
26 Aug 2014, 04:56 PM
Why have you gone quiet on the 457 thing Mike? Your statement above is pure hogshit? Why no attempt to justify it?

I know it must be hard seeing your little empire on the verge of collapse but shit happens Mike. Learn to deal with it.
Lets talk population growth.

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/second+level+view?ReadForm&prodno=3101.0&viewtitle=Australian%20Demographic%20Statistics~Dec%202013~Latest~19/06/2014&&tabname=Past%20Future%20Issues&prodno=3101.0&issue=Dec%202013&num=&view=&

Population growth each year since 2001 for WA

Dec 2001 - 25,300
No data for 2002
Dec 2003 - 32,100
Dec 2004 - 32,000
Dec 2005 - 34,700
Dec 2006 - 42,800
Dec 2007 - 49,000
Dec 2008 - 66,000
Dec 2009 - 58,700
Dec 2010 - 47,400
Dec 2011 - 67,400
Dec 2012 - 83,000
Dec 2013 - 71,300

Now looking at this data from the ABS and being so knowledgeable about the property market as you claim to be, what stands out.

I will tell you. From 2004-2006 when prices in Perth almost doubled population growth was subdued only taking off in 2006 well after prices had already started to boom.

Again in 2010 when prices in Perth had a mini boom population growth was at it lowest in the past 7 years, yet prices took off.

Population growth would need to halve to return as to a more long term trend of around 1.5% growth. Population growth of 40-45,000 per year would be about right. At present we are along way north of this.

Can you explain why prices increased the most in the past 14 years when population growth was at its lowest and declining in trend terms in the 4 years prices took off (2004,05,06, 10)

Since you seem to suggest falling population or falling trend population growth will be negative for the property market, explain how prices could more then double during years of population growth falling.

This is all documented data. So explain as you are trying to tell us all population growth will be negative for the property market, explain as historical data says differently. I know why but lets see if you do.
Guest
26 Aug 2014, 06:59 PM
Mike, I am sure I saw you say somewhere yesterday that the GFC was not caused by debt.

I would like to point out that if this was your claim, then you are horribly wrong.

The debt is the exact cause of the GFC.

Just wondering, if you dont think debt caused the gfc, what do you think did ?
If your statement is correct, debt caused the GFC. Why are we not in a new GFC now or have been in one since debt was first used.

Explain how Debt caused the GFC?

Are you refering to Debt as a whole.
Debt to Banks.
Debt to Nations.
Debt to private sector.
Credit Card Debt.
Margin Call Debt.

What kind of debt are you talking about.
Edited by Mike, 26 Aug 2014, 07:13 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Mike
26 Aug 2014, 06:49 PM
Can you show us a link as to where we can get negative equity loans as you describe them from an Australian Bank?
Can you provide a link to show the house you watched so closely for 7 years was adervertised for $1.2 million rather then $975,000 in 2007/8 and again in 2011 at $800,000 instead of $595,000.

Why are you talking about 457 Visas? They are not part of Australia's permanent residents or citizens.

457 Visas are a temporary working Visa and once the contract is completed those people return home. They can apply for permanent residency but the conditions are very strict.
No and No.

I never said it was an Australian bank. I was in the UK at the time and it really did happen.

As for the 1.2 million house. I have provided a link to the listings history for the (now 599k) house. It doesn't go back as far as 2007. That doesn't make me a liar. However, I can show you my copy of the offer made on the 1.2 million house as explained before.

As for discussing population, I think I would rather have a conversation with someone who actually knows what he is talking about.

You don't even understand the basics of the largest visa subclass (457) that contributes to Australian population growth.


Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Jimbo
26 Aug 2014, 07:14 PM
No and No.

I never said it was an Australian bank. I was in the UK at the time and it really did happen.

As for the 1.2 million house. I have provided a link to the listings history for the (now 599k) house. It doesn't go back as far as 2007. That doesn't make me a liar. However, I can show you my copy of the offer made on the 1.2 million house as explained before.

As for discussing population, I think I would rather have a conversation with someone who actually knows what he is talking about.

You don't even understand the basics of the largest visa subclass (457) that contributes to Australian population growth.

If you want to post the offer the is up to you.

Despite other properties showing a history prior to 2007 the property you like does not show a listing for $1.2 million. RP data does not show it and I have a full subscription, None of the internet realestate websites show it, no real estate agency shows it. Nothing, nadda.

What about 2011, you claimed it was on the market for $800,000. I can find many different sources that shows this property was on the market in 2008 for $595,000. How did you get that wrong as well.

I can easily find prices going back alot further for other properties just not the one you claim was on the market for $1.2 million.

As for Negative Equity, you were trying to convince us all it could be done now and in Australia, do I need to roll out the quotes for that as well.

Tell us all how any 457 Visa holders in total contributed to over all migration levels, can you provide some acutal data
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Mike
26 Aug 2014, 07:08 PM


Explain how Debt caused the GFC?

Are you refering to Debt as a whole.
Debt to Banks.
Debt to Nations.
Debt to private sector.
Credit Card Debt.
Margin Call Debt.

What kind of debt are you talking about.
OK Mike, just before I go on, I would like to say you did not acknowledge that you said it, but did not deny it.

Where is your confidence Mike ?

I then asked you , if you dont think debt caused the gfc, what do you think did ?

Again no answer, no confidence or no idea or both, do you have an answer for this Mike ? You did say it was not debt, well what isit Mike, come on ?


You then ask me to explain how debt caused the GFC....

All explained below Mike.



https://www.google.com/search?client=ms-android-vf-au&source=android-home&site=webhp&source=hp&ei=lUj8U-LOOsns8AWL0IHwCg&q=how+debt+caused+the+gfc&oq=how+debt+caused+the+gfc&gs_l=mobile-gws-hp.3...2939.28751.0.29190.70.45.25.4.5.0.1031.13645.2j0j30j8j2j1j1j1.45.0....0...1c.1.52.mobile-gws-hp..10.60.10643.3.-ct68kxA5JU
Feel free to answer my prior question too.....

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