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Population Peak
Topic Started: 24 Aug 2014, 10:13 AM (664 Views)
ThePauk
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Note, global population growth has been slowing since 1965 and the demographic momentum, more people living longer is 30% of our current global growth.

"A somewhat more arcane milestone, meanwhile, generated no media coverage at all: It took humankind 13 years to add its 7 billionth. That’s longer than the 12 years it took to add the 6 billionth—the first time in human history that interval had grown. (The 2 billionth, 3 billionth, 4 billionth, and 5 billionth took 123, 33, 14, and 13 years, respectively.) In other words, the rate of global population growth has slowed. And it’s expected to keep slowing. Indeed, according to experts’ best estimates, the total population of Earth will stop growing within the lifespan of people alive today.

And then it will fall.

This is a counterintuitive notion in the United States, where we’ve heard often and loudly that world population growth is a perilous and perhaps unavoidable threat to our future as a species. But population decline is a very familiar concept in the rest of the developed world, where fertility has long since fallen far below the 2.1 live births per woman required to maintain population equilibrium. In Germany, the birthrate has sunk to just 1.36, worse even than its low-fertility neighbors Spain (1.48) and Italy (1.4). The way things are going, Western Europe as a whole will most likely shrink from 460 million to just 350 million by the end of the century. That’s not so bad compared with Russia and China, each of whose populations could fall by half. As you may not be surprised to learn, the Germans have coined a polysyllabic word for this quandary: Schrumpf-Gesellschaft, or “shrinking society.”

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2013/01/world_population_may_actually_start_declining_not_exploding.html

So in the face of slowing global population growth and perhaps a peak and the decline, what effects will this have on our NOM as we 'compete' for skilled workers?
Edited by ThePauk, 24 Aug 2014, 10:53 AM.
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peter fraser
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ThePauk
24 Aug 2014, 10:13 AM
Note, global population growth has been slowing since 1965 and the demographic momentum, more people living longer is 30% of our current global growth.

"A somewhat more arcane milestone, meanwhile, generated no media coverage at all: It took humankind 13 years to add its 7 billionth. That’s longer than the 12 years it took to add the 6 billionth—the first time in human history that interval had grown. (The 2 billionth, 3 billionth, 4 billionth, and 5 billionth took 123, 33, 14, and 13 years, respectively.) In other words, the rate of global population growth has slowed. And it’s expected to keep slowing. Indeed, according to experts’ best estimates, the total population of Earth will stop growing within the lifespan of people alive today.

And then it will fall.

This is a counterintuitive notion in the United States, where we’ve heard often and loudly that world population growth is a perilous and perhaps unavoidable threat to our future as a species. But population decline is a very familiar concept in the rest of the developed world, where fertility has long since fallen far below the 2.1 live births per woman required to maintain population equilibrium. In Germany, the birthrate has sunk to just 1.36, worse even than its low-fertility neighbors Spain (1.48) and Italy (1.4). The way things are going, Western Europe as a whole will most likely shrink from 460 million to just 350 million by the end of the century. That’s not so bad compared with Russia and China, each of whose populations could fall by half. As you may not be surprised to learn, the Germans have coined a polysyllabic word for this quandary: Schrumpf-Gesellschaft, or “shrinking society.”

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2013/01/world_population_may_actually_start_declining_not_exploding.html

So in the face of slowing global population growth and perhaps a peak and the decline, what effects will this have on our NOM as we 'compete' for skilled workers?
From the article linked -

Quote:
 
researchers at Austria’s International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis foresee the global population maxing out at 9 billion some time around 2070.

Most of us will be dead then.

Quote:
 
According to a 2008 IIASA report, if the world stabilizes at a total fertility rate of 1.5—where Europe is today—then by 2200 the global population will fall to half of what it is today. By 2300, it’ll barely scratch 1 billion.

And how should we prepare for an event where all of us will be dead and forgotten about. What should my strategy be?
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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A Lurker
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ThePauk
24 Aug 2014, 10:13 AM
Note, global population growth has been slowing since 1965 and the demographic momentum, more people living longer is 30% of our current global growth.

"A somewhat more arcane milestone, meanwhile, generated no media coverage at all: It took humankind 13 years to add its 7 billionth. That’s longer than the 12 years it took to add the 6 billionth—the first time in human history that interval had grown. (The 2 billionth, 3 billionth, 4 billionth, and 5 billionth took 123, 33, 14, and 13 years, respectively.) In other words, the rate of global population growth has slowed. And it’s expected to keep slowing. Indeed, according to experts’ best estimates, the total population of Earth will stop growing within the lifespan of people alive today.

And then it will fall.

This is a counterintuitive notion in the United States, where we’ve heard often and loudly that world population growth is a perilous and perhaps unavoidable threat to our future as a species. But population decline is a very familiar concept in the rest of the developed world, where fertility has long since fallen far below the 2.1 live births per woman required to maintain population equilibrium. In Germany, the birthrate has sunk to just 1.36, worse even than its low-fertility neighbors Spain (1.48) and Italy (1.4). The way things are going, Western Europe as a whole will most likely shrink from 460 million to just 350 million by the end of the century. That’s not so bad compared with Russia and China, each of whose populations could fall by half. As you may not be surprised to learn, the Germans have coined a polysyllabic word for this quandary: Schrumpf-Gesellschaft, or “shrinking society.”

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2013/01/world_population_may_actually_start_declining_not_exploding.html

So in the face of slowing global population growth and perhaps a peak and the decline, what effects will this have on our NOM as we 'compete' for skilled workers?
Wow big turnaround from you. Some of this have been saying this for years.

Australia's population will continue to rise after the world's population peaks if we choose. We will send boats to poor countries to pick up working age people that want to come to Australia. Quite a turn around from current policies. We will be competing against other counties when we go there but there will be plenty of re-distribution available for the first multiple decades after the population peaks.
Edited by A Lurker, 24 Aug 2014, 03:29 PM.
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Bardon
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peter fraser
24 Aug 2014, 03:06 PM

Most of us will be dead then.



And how should we prepare for an event where all of us will be dead and forgotten about. What should my strategy be?
Take out options on burial plots?
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ThePauk
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A Lurker
24 Aug 2014, 03:25 PM
Wow big turnaround from you. Some of this have been saying this for years.

Australia's population will continue to rise after the world's population peaks if we choose. We will send boats to poor countries to pick up working age people that want to come to Australia. Quite a turn around from current policies. We will be competing against other counties when we go there but there will be plenty of re-distribution available for the first multiple decades after the population peaks.
Big turnaround? Not sure what you mean. I have always said global population would peak this century and then decline. A good thung IMO.
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herbie
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"researchers at Austria’s International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis foresee the global population maxing out at 9 billion some time around 2070."

2070 is also about the time Oz is predicted to run out of iron ore apparently? ... :)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Bob the Road Maker
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peter fraser
24 Aug 2014, 03:06 PM
From the article linked -



Most of us will be dead then.



And how should we prepare for an event where all of us will be dead and forgotten about. What should my strategy be?
Like climate change, most of you will be dead when the real effects are felt, so do you just a stuff at all about the next generations or are you to busy looking after your own arse today and do not give a stuff.

What roads and infrastructure will we need? These decisions we make today will last into this period.

I think we should be starting to plan now for a stabilized population.
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I live in a future petri dish with many pre boomers probably similar to Caloundra except more isolated from cities.

There’s the whole range from wealthy, to comfortable, to poor – I see much more of the latter & some in the middle. Once they’re set up they need for little. They tend to hoard whatever money they’ve got left! Except for the little luxuries like pokies, golf carts & pets. Most know they’ve got to keep social & move those creaky joints, but they do it by visiting each other moreso than spending on pointless trinkets or short lived highs. Bingo & a 7 of shandy might be a day out!

If I were to try & set up a business here, the only theme’s I’d consider would be car repairs, medical centres, pharmacy, aged care homes or a funeral business.

A lot of youngun’s leave. They need to for work, or further educ.

Seasonal tourism certainly gives the local economy a shot in the arm, enough to tide them over till the next hols – mostly. Pubs are getting quieter by the year, a few empty shops & a few rather anxious ones It’d be safe to wager…………!

It seems like the towns in stasis, waiting to see if the boomers will start coming here en masse – there are some ‘renewing’ this area, but overall this place isn’t getting any younger & there’s nothing to draw young people in unless they’re trying to escape the city – & they’ll end up paupers if they do so on local wages!

I hesitate to say it’s dying, but I don’t see a lot of the vibrancy I’ve seen in cities either……….

We’re lucky it’s got a mild climate & manner, & picturesque vista’s.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

ThePauk
24 Aug 2014, 10:13 AM
Note, global population growth has been slowing since 1965 and the demographic momentum, more people living longer is 30% of our current global growth.

"A somewhat more arcane milestone, meanwhile, generated no media coverage at all: It took humankind 13 years to add its 7 billionth. That’s longer than the 12 years it took to add the 6 billionth—the first time in human history that interval had grown. (The 2 billionth, 3 billionth, 4 billionth, and 5 billionth took 123, 33, 14, and 13 years, respectively.) In other words, the rate of global population growth has slowed. And it’s expected to keep slowing. Indeed, according to experts’ best estimates, the total population of Earth will stop growing within the lifespan of people alive today.

And then it will fall.

This is a counterintuitive notion in the United States, where we’ve heard often and loudly that world population growth is a perilous and perhaps unavoidable threat to our future as a species. But population decline is a very familiar concept in the rest of the developed world, where fertility has long since fallen far below the 2.1 live births per woman required to maintain population equilibrium. In Germany, the birthrate has sunk to just 1.36, worse even than its low-fertility neighbors Spain (1.48) and Italy (1.4). The way things are going, Western Europe as a whole will most likely shrink from 460 million to just 350 million by the end of the century. That’s not so bad compared with Russia and China, each of whose populations could fall by half. As you may not be surprised to learn, the Germans have coined a polysyllabic word for this quandary: Schrumpf-Gesellschaft, or “shrinking society.”

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2013/01/world_population_may_actually_start_declining_not_exploding.html

So in the face of slowing global population growth and perhaps a peak and the decline, what effects will this have on our NOM as we 'compete' for skilled workers?
would a nice little flue go among our older infirm population?
Population could crash in a very short space of time.
The night is always the darkest just before the dawn, conversely the sun is the brightest just before afternoon.
Peter
Edited by Foxy, 25 Aug 2014, 02:14 AM.
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