Chronic Oversupply: Landlords hit by apartment glut and falling rental yields; Without rental growth or capital growth, the prospects for many investors are bleak
Tweet Topic Started: 21 Aug 2014, 10:18 PM (10,347 Views)
Try to find one source that backs your claim that the property market is dominated by stupid investors. There is no evidence at all except your own opinion of a few workmates that you think are stupid.
I am not saying it is dominated by stupid investors, just that it has more than its fair share of stupid investors.
I can't give you stats, but I have made calls before based on what I see and hear around me and I have been right.
When we left the UK to come back here in 2007, my wife wanted to hang on for a year or two. I told her that UK house prices were in bubble territory and that the UK economic miracle was based on nothing but rising house prices. I could see that in my work. I was working with people earning 20k a year who were driving 20k cars because their houses had doubled in price in ten years so they had released some equity.
I also knew the pound to AUD was heavily overvalued at $2.50 because Australia had some fundamental advantages that the UK didn't have.
We sold at the UK peak (June 2007) exchanged our pounds for AUD at a brilliant rate and came here as prices were coming off the boil.
I keep my own stats, but the biggest influence on the price of anything is human behaviour and the best way to gauge that is by talking to people and observing what they are doing. I have met so many people here who have bought investment property in the belief that it is a win win forever, no risk investment. There is no such thing as a fail safe investment. If there was, we would all be doing it.
Another thing to consider, charts and numbers didn't predict the GFC.
Bardon
24 Aug 2014, 01:12 PM
It didn't do the miners any good did it.
"the poor shall inherit the earth, but not its mineral rights" J Paul Getty.
Chalk and Cheese. The destruction of Arthur Scargills mining union came during a time of general anti unionism in the UK. Remember, Thatcher gained power after the 1979 winter of discontent when public service unions went on general strike. Trade unions were as popular as a fart in a spacesuit. She had a mandate to reduce union power and she went straight to work on the biggest of them all.
I don't know if you have ever been to the UK but wherever you go, you will never be far away from a town or village. These people are very protective of their way of life and will fight tooth and nail to protect it. They will attract sympathy and that is reflected in the number of people in favour of fracking falling.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Chalk and Cheese. The destruction of Arthur Scargills mining union came during a time of general anti unionism in the UK. Remember, Thatcher gained power after the 1979 winter of discontent when public service unions went on general strike. Trade unions were as popular as a fart in a spacesuit. She had a mandate to reduce union power and she went straight to work on the biggest of them all.
I don't know if you have ever been to the UK but wherever you go, you will never be far away from a town or village. These people are very protective of their way of life and will fight tooth and nail to protect it. They will attract sympathy and that is reflected in the number of people in favour of fracking falling.
No its not Chalk and Cheese. The point is that the decision was made to stop mining coal in the UK so it happened despite one of the biggest public backlashes in modern history and the polarisation of vast swathes of middle Englanders.
As I said before the boat has sailed, the decision has been taken, it must happen. There is nothing that a bunch of powerless village activists can do to stop this now. Big ears wants his rent.
No its not Chalk and Cheese. The point is that the decision was made to stop mining coal in the UK so it happened despite one of the biggest public backlashes in modern history and the polarisation of vast swathes of middle Englanders.
As I said before the boat has sailed, the decision has been taken, it must happen. There is nothing that a bunch of powerless village activists can do to stop this now. Big ears wants his rent.
You are both right.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Hello kennyjaiz, I saw you looking at the thread and it prompted me to comment.
So while my drops on Melbourne have not materialised, as yet, and it has in fact performed rather well to an extent with prices coming up and rents still holding to an extent dispite the rather low returns, you can see the rather sharp decline in the economy overall and in general. Down your way , we now have our decades long car industry closing down, so something that no other GFC effected country has faced so far, despite them entering the GFC before we did as we where still heavily supported by mining at the 2008 decline.
So you have been rather lucky kenny, but I would like to know your thoughts on what you can see now with the overall economy moving forward. And do you think it has declined and looks further to decline to an extent you did not see possible in some of our prior discussions over the years. And for that matter, do you think the economic decline was as I said it would be despite prices still holding up remarkebly well so far.
No its not Chalk and Cheese. The point is that the decision was made to stop mining coal in the UK so it happened despite one of the biggest public backlashes in modern history and the polarisation of vast swathes of middle Englanders.
The miners strike was not a public backlash. It was a mining and union community backlash that garnered little sympathy from the wider public.
The English are very protective of their England. There are English villages that have not even been allowed to be street viewed by google. Like I say, you underestimate the power of middle England.
Chris
24 Aug 2014, 02:35 PM
What has English villagers got to do with any potential oversupply here in Oz???
Stick to the topic people.............
Everything has something to do with everything else. English villagers sold in droves in the 2000's and came here with big wads of cash to outbid everyone else for big houses. Chinese air pollution is creating demand for apartments in Sydney.
This is a thread on an web forum. Show me a thread that ended on the same topic it started with?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
What has English villagers got to do with any potential oversupply here in Oz???
Stick to the topic people.............
I had my say on inner city Melbourne development before, what is your say?
Jimbo
24 Aug 2014, 02:53 PM
The miners strike was not a public backlash. It was a mining and union community backlash that garnered little sympathy from the wider public.
The English are very protective of their England. There are English villages that have not even been allowed to be street viewed by google. Like I say, you underestimate the power of middle England.
You must have been south of Watford junction when the miners strike was on then.
Big Ears gets what Big Ears wants and no amount of organised Miss Marple reactionaries will change this.
peter fraser
24 Aug 2014, 02:42 PM
They may emigrate?
And many ozzie companies will do well out of the pommy shale gas sector.
You must have been south of Watford junction when the miners strike was on then.
I was on a working visa in London at the time and I came back to WA just as the Falklands shit was kicking off.
However, I spent 2000 to 2007 in a Devon village and worked in construction project management. It is the hardest place on earth to get planning permission to even fart let alone build anything.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
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