Chronic Oversupply: Landlords hit by apartment glut and falling rental yields; Without rental growth or capital growth, the prospects for many investors are bleak
Tweet Topic Started: 21 Aug 2014, 10:18 PM (10,350 Views)
You, on the other hand keep spruiking a paradigm shift that so far shows no sign of happening. Like some kind of end of the world cult.
The paradigm has already shifted. Happening in Japan for 20 years, Europe and US for 10. It's not binary, it's a process.
I love it when the status quo don't realise they have become reactionaries.
------------------------------ " ... which is that all-too-familiar dynamic in Irish life where people tell lies, cover them up and create all sorts of collateral damage, sometimes spread out over decades, and never take responsibility." - Alan Glynn
The US labour participation rate being at a 36 year low is a fact. Does that change your mind?
Not really. It will continue to track lower. The male participation rate has been declining since the 1950s. The only thing that kept the overall participation rate from going down with it is the rise in the female participation rate. Now female participation rate has peaked and is declining like the male participation rate.
It is a secular trend and in the longer term is pretty much independent of the health of the labour market. People are staying at school longer and they are living longer after they retire. It's not rocket surgery.
Ned Flanders
23 Aug 2014, 01:05 AM
The paradigm has already shifted. Happening in Japan for 20 years, Europe and US for 10. It's not binary, it's a process.
I love it when the status quo don't realise they have become reactionaries.
Go join Black Panther in the nutter corner with his transmutation. :-)
Not really. It will continue to track lower. The male participation rate has been declining since the 1950s. The only thing that kept the overall participation rate from going down with it is the rise in the female participation rate. Now female participation rate has peaked and is declining like the male participation rate.
It is a secular trend and in the longer term is pretty much independent of the health of the labour market. People are staying at school longer and they are living longer after they retire. It's not rocket surgery.
Go join Black Panther in the nutter corner with his transmutation. :-)
Your graph shows the shift you speak of began around the year 2000, where everything has been on a clear defending path like has never happened before throughout history. Thank you for pointing this out to us, theshift is as clear as day and began with the rise of chinese labour making everything we all used to make.
The decent sees no end in sight whatsoever and has never happened before like it is now, clearly shown in the graph.
The shift is very clear and very obvious, even for those normally unable to see it or understand the shift.
Ok, a bit of a challenge, tell me how the USA is recovering and why it will continue to recover.<br /><br /><br />
That's easy, same as it always was.
Despite all the doomsters banging on about debt levels and property problems over recent years, the stock market rose exactly as it did following all previous cycle low points in the fifties, the seventies and the nineties. The stock market has just completed its four year recovery phase exactly as it did during the start of the previous new cycles. We know what happens next with the land price cycle and we can see it already happening in Miami.
Despite all the doomsters banging on about debt levels and property problems over recent years, the stock market rose exactly as it did following all previous cycle low points in the fifties, the seventies and the nineties. The stock market has just completed its four year recovery phase exactly as it did during the start of the previous new cycles. We know what happens next with the land price cycle and we can see it already happening in Miami.
So the stock market rises have nothing to do with zirp forcing investors to chase yield?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Despite all the doomsters banging on about debt levels and property problems over recent years, the stock market rose exactly as it did following all previous cycle low points in the fifties, the seventies and the nineties. The stock market has just completed its four year recovery phase exactly as it did during the start of the previous new cycles. We know what happens next with the land price cycle and we can see it already happening in Miami.
You forgot to mention that they have pumped 10 trillion in stimulus since 2008 and jammed rates at zero over the last six years to create the illusion of an economic improvement through the stock market while the real economy has been declining, shown clearly in the debt going from 8 trillion in 2008 to 18 trillion now. And shown from the amount of people on food stamps rising from 17 million people to 50 million people over the last six years.
After six years, people are still too stupid to see the blatant obviuos
The paradigm has already shifted. Happening in Japan for 20 years, Europe and US for 10. It's not binary, it's a process.
I love it when the status quo don't realise they have become reactionaries.
Hi Ned would you please expand your idea. Peter
Guest
23 Aug 2014, 10:53 AM
You forgot to mention that they have pumped 10 trillion in stimulus since 2008 and jammed rates at zero over the last six years to create the illusion of an economic improvement through the stock market while the real economy has been declining, shown clearly in the debt going from 8 trillion in 2008 to 18 trillion now. And shown from the amount of people on food stamps rising from 17 million people to 50 million people over the last six years.
After six years, people are still too stupid to see the blatant obviuos
I do not agree with the action, BUT would you paint the picture of what would have happened if the $10t did not appear out of thin air?? Peter What would the world look like??
So the stock market rises have nothing to do with zirp forcing investors to chase yield?
Just saying that the stock market rise being the lead indicator tells us that we are in a new cycle and judging by the size of the rises this one will be the mother of all cycles. Yes credit has expanded which is also typical but we haven't seen anything yet, there will be many brand new banks and creative credit products coming to us. You seen that post I made last week about the estimate of 30 new banks in the UK.
The main indicator going on under our noses right now is the phenomenal rise in rents being experienced in the US this is typical of the recovery with US rental gains outstripping all other gains since the gfc. That's what is driving the Miami land rush, rising rents.
The rises shown below have been going on now for over four years with no end in sight.
"Rental income of persons increased $3.5 billion in June, compared with an increase of $3.6 billion in May. Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) increased $11.9 billion, compared with increased of $8.9 billion."
Your graph shows the shift you speak of began around the year 2000, where everything has been on a clear defending path like has never happened before throughout history. Thank you for pointing this out to us, theshift is as clear as day and began with the rise of chinese labour making everything we all used to make.
The decent sees no end in sight whatsoever and has never happened before like it is now, clearly shown in the graph.
The shift is very clear and very obvious, even for those normally unable to see it or understand the shift.
Great work
Yup. Total participation rate peaked in 2000, and will probably head down from here on in, regardless of the state of the economy.
How would you fix it? Make people start work younger or retire older or die younger?
Personally I think the current situation is an improvement on the days when you went to work at 15 and died a couple of years after retirement, and it is continuing to improve.
But like most bulls you are scope locked on the past. Always looking at the past 40 years and ignoring any other timeframe.
You, on the other hand keep spruiking a paradigm shift that so far shows no sign of happening. Like some kind of end of the world cult.
It's happening all around you, from the last 7 years of turbulent property prices worldwide to the massive unemployment and rampant inflation worldwide. All of which is happening here too if you open your eyes.
I see 5 or 10 years into the future based on current trends, trends that began 7 years ago with the GFC. You remember the GFC don't you? How the whole financial world went into a bunker and hid for 6 months, only the emerge with a lot of bullshit promises and a supposed recovery plan that 7 years later still has no legs yet has seen the world amass unimaginable debts.
You deserve a lobotomy for your inability to put these facts together and act appropriately, and that's the truth.
Bardon
22 Aug 2014, 08:51 PM
miw
22 Aug 2014, 08:15 PM
You, on the other hand keep spruiking a paradigm shift that so far shows no sign of happening. Like some kind of end of the world cult.
Goldbug, you should take this comment on board as you do come across like that.
The world won't end bardon, it will just seem like it has for millions of people who have borrowed the next decade's earnings to gamble on property prices doubling and to spend on new cars and overseas holidays. I myself will continue to live within my means with no debt and a substantial amount of diverse savings. Some of which will no doubt be wiped out by bank bailouts and the like.
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