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Chronic Oversupply: Landlords hit by apartment glut and falling rental yields; Without rental growth or capital growth, the prospects for many investors are bleak
Topic Started: 21 Aug 2014, 10:18 PM (10,351 Views)
Jimbo
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goldbug
22 Aug 2014, 08:03 PM
But like most bulls you are scope locked on the past. Always looking at the past 40 years and ignoring any other timeframe.
The most important time for any investment that you buy now, is the time that is yet to pass. The price of anything is the price you can get for it right now. Anything else is just pure speculation.


Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Bardon
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miw
22 Aug 2014, 08:15 PM
You, on the other hand keep spruiking a paradigm shift that so far shows no sign of happening. Like some kind of end of the world cult.
Goldbug, you should take this comment on board as you do come across like that.
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Jimbo
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Bardon
22 Aug 2014, 08:51 PM
Goldbug, you should take this comment on board as you do come across like that.
Ok, a bit of a challenge, tell me how the USA is recovering and why it will continue to recover.



Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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miw
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Jimbo
22 Aug 2014, 08:57 PM
Ok, a bit of a challenge, tell me how the USA is recovering and why it will continue to recover.


GDP up at 3.9% annual rate last quarter, 6 months in a row of >200k jobs created on NFP, new jobless claims hovering around the 300k which is as low as they ever get, industrial production up 5% on a year ago, inflation a little low at 2%, Existing home sales up 2.4% in July, manufacturing output m/m gain of 1% in July....

Not only is activity up, but there is still plenty of slack in the economy. The US has just undergone a major upgrade in competitiveness - as the hourly rate figures that b_b quoted recently show.

That's what is happening right now. As to the future, my crystal ball is as good as yours and they are both pretty useless.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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Jimbo
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miw
22 Aug 2014, 09:31 PM
GDP up at 3.9% annual rate last quarter, 6 months in a row of >200k jobs created on NFP, new jobless claims hovering around the 300k which is as low as they ever get, industrial production up 5% on a year ago, inflation a little low at 2%, Existing home sales up 2.4% in July, manufacturing output m/m gain of 1% in July....

Not only is activity up, but there is still plenty of slack in the economy. The US has just undergone a major upgrade in competitiveness - as the hourly rate figures that b_b quoted recently show.

That's what is happening right now. As to the future, my crystal ball is as good as yours and they are both pretty useless.
I can't be arsed to type a response to each of your points but suffice to say that you have told me nothing I didn't already know. I have considered (in some depth) all of the positives you raise and my opinion is that the US economy is totally fucked.

I will give one example only. NFP has increased but has done so at the expense of an increase in part time work offsetting a decrease in full time work.

I can shoot holes in every other US headline number, but the one that Janet will use to delay interest rate rises is lack of wage growth.

We will know in a few hours time.








Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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miw
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Jimbo
22 Aug 2014, 10:32 PM
I can't be arsed to type a response to each of your points but suffice to say that you have told me nothing I didn't already know. I have considered (in some depth) all of the positives you raise and my opinion is that the US economy is totally fucked.

I will give one example only. NFP has increased but has done so at the expense of an increase in part time work offsetting a decrease in full time work.

I can shoot holes in every other US headline number, but the one that Janet will use to delay interest rate rises is lack of wage growth.

We will know in a few hours time.

OK. You go ahead and make your decisions based on your view of the world and I'll make mine based on mine. BTW Yelllen doesn't set rates. It's the FOMC which she happens to chair. I'd actually be very surprised if she says anything much about IRs, but given that the fed's dual charter is to get employment as high as possible while maintaining inflation around the 2.5%, it wouldn't surprise me if, in the face of lack of inflation, they did not raise rates. It would after all be against the charter.

By the way, what metric improving would make you admit the economy was recovering? Or will you be like the doom spruiker du jour and just change the metric to the one that is most convenient at the time. If this is the case, you'd better look for something that works better than the part-time employees spiel. The number of part-time employees has been flat and dropping as a percentage of all employes since the start of 2010.
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Edited by miw, 23 Aug 2014, 12:17 AM.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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Jimbo
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miw
23 Aug 2014, 12:16 AM
By the way, what metric improving would make you admit the economy was recovering?
It is hard to tell if a patient is going to survive or recover when they are still strapped firmly to and fully dependent on a life support system.
Edited by Jimbo, 23 Aug 2014, 12:37 AM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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miw
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Jimbo
23 Aug 2014, 12:26 AM
It is hard to tell if a patient is going to survive or recover when they are still strapped firmly to and fully dependent on a life support system.
So basically there is no combination of facts that would make you change your mind.

'nuff said.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

newjez
22 Aug 2014, 05:33 AM
How many first time stock market investors spend $600000 on their favourite company?
Yes and about 2% get it right.
Peter
newjez
22 Aug 2014, 05:33 AM
How many first time stock market investors spend $600000 on their favourite company?
Yes and about 2% get it right.
Peter
Jimbo
22 Aug 2014, 08:57 PM
Ok, a bit of a challenge, tell me how the USA is recovering and why it will continue to recover.


A larger world war.
You can work it out.
Peter
Edited by Foxy, 23 Aug 2014, 12:53 AM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Jimbo
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miw
23 Aug 2014, 12:42 AM
So basically there is no combination of facts that would make you change your mind.

'nuff said.
The US labour participation rate being at a 36 year low is a fact. Does that change your mind?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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