Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
Why there will be no crash in Perth; Perth bears have their fantasy smashed
Topic Started: 21 Aug 2014, 02:38 AM (43,321 Views)
Massive
Default APF Avatar


miw
22 Aug 2014, 04:23 PM
Who knows, but a coffee in Beijing is $6 and the average income and barista wages are much lower. Never underestimate the power of the populace to spend.
As long as they have the disposable income to spend it ...

Cost of living is Perth is considerably higher that makes up for the difference in salaries and enables the purchasing power of that $6 luxury item (coffee) in China.. Its not a big issue for Beijingers who pretty much spend less on almost everything else. ( That coffee probably cost more or less the same as the combined total spent on meals for the day for example )

http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Australia&city1=Perth&country2=China&city2=Beijing
Edited by Massive, 22 Aug 2014, 04:35 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jimbo
Member Avatar


miw
22 Aug 2014, 04:23 PM
Who knows, but a coffee in Beijing is $6 and the average income and barista wages are much lower. Never underestimate the power of the populace to spend.
Twisting the point there a little bit mate.

Beijing people wouldn't buy $6 coffee if their wages fell 20%. The coffee price would follow and so would the Baristas wages.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
miw
Member Avatar


Jimbo
22 Aug 2014, 07:19 PM
Beijing people wouldn't buy $6 coffee if their wages fell 20%. The coffee price would follow and so would the Baristas wages.
On the contrary, I think they would still buy their coffees. $6 is outrageous already. What's a bit more outrageous among friends?
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jimbo
Member Avatar


Massive
22 Aug 2014, 04:32 PM
As long as they have the disposable income to spend it ...

Cost of living is Perth is considerably higher that makes up for the difference in salaries and enables the purchasing power of that $6 luxury item (coffee) in China.. Its not a big issue for Beijingers who pretty much spend less on almost everything else. ( That coffee probably cost more or less the same as the combined total spent on meals for the day for example )

http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Australia&city1=Perth&country2=China&city2=Beijing
Actually true. If you go to Maccas or KFC in China, you don't join a mile long queue of fat tattooed bogans. You walk up to a very overstaffed counter and stare around in amazement at the beautiful people in their fine clothes dining out with their only child in a spotlessly clean restaurant.

The Chinese bogans will be crouching on the street corner eating noodles cooked by a street vendor.
miw
22 Aug 2014, 07:32 PM
On the contrary, I think they would still buy their coffees. $6 is outrageous already. What's a bit more outrageous among friends?
But does the average Chinese worker drink coffee at $6 a pop?
Edited by Jimbo, 22 Aug 2014, 07:36 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Massive
Default APF Avatar


miw
22 Aug 2014, 07:32 PM
On the contrary, I think they would still buy their coffees. $6 is outrageous already. What's a bit more outrageous among friends?
its not a great example - coffee in china is more of a show/lifestyle choice for higher income earners anyway... your average fruit vendor doesnt walk into starbucks for a grande latte or whatever when on break, but your aspiring office worker on a fairly decent wage will...

pull away any of their disposable incomes ( to the tune of 30-40% like some of the mining workers are looking at) and they would stop drinking as much, there would be no other choice...

edit: you beat me to it jimbo.. i esentially double-posted for you.. sorry.


Edited by Massive, 22 Aug 2014, 07:40 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
miw
Member Avatar


Jimbo
22 Aug 2014, 07:32 PM
But does the average Chinese worker drink coffee at $6 a pop?
Who cares? Enough people do it so any number of chains are making a mozza from it.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Massive
22 Aug 2014, 02:35 PM
But at the same time, its not unwarranted to approach with a bit of caution..

with salaries the highest they have been in global terms, interest rates at record lows, population growth at record highs and house price ratio up at near record highs how much REAL capital growth do you think anyone purchasing a house in WA could expect to achieve moving forward? Especially now most of these aforementioned indicators are starting to turn ?

id argue from an investment point of view there is far more risk buying now than waiting out... there are other areas of WA economy and property outside of resi that have been given far less attention in recent years with much better growth potential, IMO.
I am definitely not contradicting your viewpoint, IMHO it is valid, Perth prices in the upper markets are not doing much at all just now. I will pop on here in a flash and let you know if there are signs of any speedy recovery in homes above $1m (which is I presume your market). Mike too is up on the market in Perth and neither of us is calling boom at the moment and we are both seeing a steady market.


House price to income is down in WA as I showed that in a chart previously and this data was direct from the ABS website. They are not at record highs at all, these is so much misinformation around.

Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jimbo
Member Avatar


miw
22 Aug 2014, 07:39 PM
Who cares? Enough people do it so any number of chains are making a mozza from it.
Great, then everything is just great. Marvelous. Fantastic.
skamy
22 Aug 2014, 08:38 PM
House price to income is down in WA as I showed that in a chart previously and this data was direct from the ABS website. They are not at record highs at all, these is so much misinformation around.
Between markets rising and falling, the charts get a bit muddied. They don't go up much and they don't go down much. You can stare harder at various other indicators that would suggest a direction but even they become hard to bring into focus.

Much better to look at the big picture. The bigger the picture, the less fuzzy the lines become.
Edited by Jimbo, 22 Aug 2014, 08:53 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Guest
Unregistered

skamy
22 Aug 2014, 08:38 PM
I am definitely not contradicting your viewpoint, IMHO it is valid, Perth prices in the upper markets are not doing much at all just now. I will pop on here in a flash and let you know if there are signs of any speedy recovery in homes above $1m (which is I presume your market). Mike too is up on the market in Perth and neither of us is calling boom at the moment and we are both seeing a steady market.


House price to income is down in WA as I showed that in a chart previously and this data was direct from the ABS website. They are not at record highs at all, these is so much misinformation around.
Meanwhile, the economy , jobs and rents decline on a level never seen before while interest rates are at record lows.

The crash is only just beginning there skamy, strap yourself in tight and hang on, then give yourself a good slap in the face

I now your intensions are good but the timing , well, you could not have picked a worse year ever to purchase property in perth. Years of falling rents and prices and then see how it goes when interest rates start to rise
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Guest
22 Aug 2014, 10:58 PM
Meanwhile, the economy , jobs and rents decline on a level never seen before while interest rates are at record lows.

The crash is only just beginning there skamy, strap yourself in tight and hang on, then give yourself a good slap in the face

I now your intensions are good but the timing , well, you could not have picked a worse year ever to purchase property in perth. Years of falling rents and prices and then see how it goes when interest rates start to rise
That you Ted, how ya doing? why not sign in?


Perth aint gonna crash sorry, everything's looking good.

The Chamber of Commerce and Industry WA are predicting the WA economy will double in 20 years, that is 3.5% annual growth ie the sweet spot for growth.
There were excellent results from IInet today and a big spending Chinese investor is putting $100m on a South Perth project.

A few east coast bears are clambering for a bit of drama and they hoped to find it in Perth now that they know they won't find it at home.
Massive
22 Aug 2014, 04:32 PM
As long as they have the disposable income to spend it ...

Cost of living is Perth is considerably higher that makes up for the difference in salaries and enables the purchasing power of that $6 luxury item (coffee) in China.. Its not a big issue for Beijingers who pretty much spend less on almost everything else. ( That coffee probably cost more or less the same as the combined total spent on meals for the day for example )

http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Australia&city1=Perth&country2=China&city2=Beijing
The cost of living is very high. How do they get away with charging so much more for utilities here?



Edited by skamy, 23 Aug 2014, 01:34 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
3 users reading this topic (3 Guests and 0 Anonymous)
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy