You are either truly an idiot or just adamant in posting complete fabrications ...
Those mining construction jobs are on mining wages .. Its the mining sector old lass... When they transfer to construction sector build houses in Perth they will be back in construction sector pay bracket ...
Its highly likely those in long term mining jobs will also be on lower salaries as there will be so many queing up for the work that the mining companies can pick and choose - not the same as the " employ at whatever price we can get labor " conditions of investment boom years
I was not questioning whether mining construction workers were on big wages, I have two family members who are engineers on FIFO, I know their wages. i was questioning how your statistics were calculated. So I will ask again
For the purpose of the calculation of the average wages that you have shown, are you sure than mining construction workers are classified as miners? because it may be that the big mining construction wages are factored into the construction wage.
You are hanging your whole stagnation scenario based on this assumption that overall wages will fall AND that the uplifted FIFO salaries were used to bid up house prices, hence now they must fall.
I have shown in my OP that rising wages did not push up prices, and I also have shown you that it is not such a likely thing that wages will fall much if at all.
A few mining construction jobs may return to Perth wages but if wages for all Perth tradies rise with the residential construction (and we are seeing this already) this could easily make up for it as many more people are hired for residential construction.
Rents have fallen as the construction investment eases but wages are still rising.
If the rest of the Perth economy recovers from the GFC as it is doing at the moment, the miners will not be able to staff their operations without offering big FIFO money. Do you know what turnover is like on FIFO? Like Jimbo says no-one does this kind of work without big money. Here are the divisions used for the ABS Division E Construction Subdivision 30 Building Construction Group 301 Residential Building Construction Class 3011 House Construction Class 3019 Other Residential Building Construction Group 302 Non-Residential Building Construction Class 3020 Non-Residential Building Construction Subdivision 31 Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction Group 310 Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction Class 3101 Road and Bridge Construction Class 3109 Other Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction Subdivision 32 Construction Services Group 321 Land Development and Site Preparation Services Class 3211 Land Development and Subdivision Class 3212 Site Preparation Services Group 322 Building Structure Services Class 3221 Concreting Services Class 3222 Bricklaying Services Class 3223 Roofing Services Class 3224 Structural Steel Erection Services Group 323 Building Installation Services Class 3231 Plumbing Services Class 3232 Electrical Services Class 3233 Air Conditioning and Heating Services Class 3234 Fire and Security Alarm Installation Services Class 3239 Other Building Installation Services Group 324 Building Completion Services Class 3241 Plastering and Ceiling Services Class 3242 Carpentry Services Class 3243 Tiling and Carpeting Services Class 3244 Painting and Decorating Services Class 3245 Glazing Services Group 329 Other Construction Services Class 3291 Landscape Construction Services Class 3292 Hire of Construction Machinery with Operator Class 3299 Other Construction Services n.e.c.
Division B Mining Subdivision 06 Coal Mining Group 060 Coal Mining Class 0600 Coal Mining Subdivision 07 Oil and Gas Extraction Group 070 Oil and Gas Extraction Class 0700 Oil and Gas Extraction Subdivision 08 Metal Ore Mining Group 080 Metal Ore Mining Class 0801 Iron Ore Mining Class 0802 Bauxite Mining Class 0803 Copper Ore Mining Class 0804 Gold Ore Mining Class 0805 Mineral Sand Mining Class 0806 Nickel Ore Mining Class 0807 Silver-Lead-Zinc Ore Mining Class 0809 Other Metal Ore Mining Subdivision 09 Non-Metallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying Group 091 Construction Material Mining Class 0911 Gravel and Sand Quarrying Class 0919 Other Construction Material Mining Group 099 Other Non-Metallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying Class 0990 Other Non-Metallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying Subdivision 10 Exploration and Other Mining Support Services Group 101 Exploration Class 1011 Petroleum Exploration Class 1012 Mineral Exploration Group 109 Other Mining Support Services Class 1090 Other Mining Support Services
So it does indeed look like the mining construction boom wages are factored into Construction wages NOT Mining wages
Ned Flanders
22 Aug 2014, 12:36 AM
Comedy gold!
Sure Miles sure
SittingOnDeFence
22 Aug 2014, 01:00 AM
Can you point out where in the graph Perth was at record lows (like you say)
Can you please give me my specific quote in context so that I can help you out here.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
You are hanging your whole stagnation scenario based on this assumption that overall wages will fall AND that the uplifted FIFO salaries were used to bid up house prices, hence now they must fall.
I have shown in my OP that rising wages did not push up prices, and I also have shown you that it is not such a likely thing that wages will fall much if at all. ... So it does indeed look like the mining construction boom wages are factored into Construction wages NOT Mining wages
im saying we are likely going to enter stagnation ( as has been the case for a few years now ) because there will be no more wage growth and a real risk of real wage reduction... ( especially in global terms) .. the highest paying industry will see a reduction in its workers, and that will likely filter through the local economy for a few years....
i think you are the first person ive seen suggesting the blokes going up there building the mines are doing it on average tradie salaries .. have you bothered to even ask anyone? the whole FIFO high paid worker thing has been for the mining construction, as well as engineering, labouring etc - ie: work done in the mining sector - and its where the jobs are now being reduced.
if you actually read relevant news you may learn something...
Quote:
Australia: Report foreshadows collapse of mining construction jobs The report warns of a “highly volatile phase ahead”, as mining investment has peaked for the mining resources construction sector and predicts that the number of estimated jobs will reach 83,324 jobs in 2014 and then slump to just 7,708 in 2018—an estimated loss of over 77,000 jobs
The annual wages growth in the mining sector of 3.5 percent is also down—well below the 10-year average annual increase of 4.7 percent. This data alone testifies that the downturn has started to impact on jobs, wages and working conditions.
8 years of no real house price gains and you expect this to continue for how long?
the previous stagnant period cycle from late 80's was 14 years - and the boom before it was nowhere near as powerful .....
yes, 90's was pretty bad time, but if you look whats going on in the world outside of Australia, you will realise its actually worse than then now so prolonged stagnation is not an unreasonable assumption- WA has been pretty sheltered from it all, all things considered but likely will be a bit more exposed now have to rely on other industries to balance the way forward in the economy..
houses wont necessarily be on fire sale, but stagnation / real loss over the remainder of this decade is not an unreasonable prediction the way things are right now.
That is a seriously dodgy graph, I lived and worked through the eighties it was a time of huge growth in wages. It is just silly to say wages grew causing inflation to rise therefore real wages did not rise. Some people do not understand when real prices are useful and when they are not. Wages rose full stop and this rise showed up in the inflation figures.
These are the wages figures for Melbourne.
I cannot see one year when wages fell since 1965 can you?
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
houses have tracked wages, that went off like a rocket during the investment boom...
now it would appear those wage pressures will likely ease and with it real house prices... Western Australia cant remain one of the most expensive places in the world (for salaries ) when our new fallback plan behind the short term housing construction boom will be towards our other industries ....
the house/property speculation thing is almost over for this cycle. But i know you know that , and i suspect you are already ahead of me putting money in a very strategic position for the coming decade that some of these perth property and mining bulls havent seen as of yet
That is a seriously dodgy graph, I lived and worked through the eighties it was a time of huge growth in wages. It is just silly to say wages grew causing inflation to rise therefore real wages did not rise. Some people do not understand when real prices are useful and when they are not. Wages rose full stop and this rise showed up in the inflation figures.
These are the wages figures for Melbourne.
I cannot see one year when wages fell since 1965 can you?
and inflation was HIGH through the 80's.... you dont stop to wonder thats why home loan rates were pushing 20% ?
house prices fell in the 90's real terms following these gains, as well as the pull back in real wages...
my opinion at the moment is that house prices and wages in perth in real terms are likely to stagnate or decline in real terms for a few more years, and why im not in a rush to purchase perth residential property.... IMO there are other more enticing investment options in Western Australia outside of resi ...
i think you are the first person ive seen suggesting the blokes going up there building the mines are doing it on average tradie salaries .. have you bothered to even ask anyone? the whole FIFO high paid worker thing has been for the mining construction, as well as engineering, labouring etc - ie: work done in the mining sector - and its where the jobs are now being reduced.
You are just wiggling out of your error, by making up statements I clearly would not make and did not make, I have two engineers doing FIFO in my family.
or do you seriously still not see that what you said was incorrect?
I simply pointed out to you that construction worker wages include the mining investment construction wages. I traced the numbers you showed to source and showed you this.
You quoted two wages one for mining and one for construction and tried to infer from these two figures that wages for construction would drop from 2400 to 1400 approx. I showed you that this was an error due to the way the abs classify mining construction. The higher wage for mining was for mining only and there will be more of these positions available after the investment boom. There will be less construction wages so the average figure of $1400 approx may drop a bit depending on what percentage of total construction workers worked the big FIFO wages.
This will also depend on whether improvements in other types of construction push up the wages of the many more construction workers who do not do FIFO.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
You are just wiggling out of your error, by making up statements I clearly would not make and did not make, I have two engineers doing FIFO in my family. I simply pointed out to you that construction worker wages include the mining investment construction wages. I traced the numbers you showed to source and showed you this.
You quoted two wages one for mining and one for construction and tried to infer from these two figures that wages for construction would drop from 2400 to 1400 approx. I showed you that this was an error due to the way the abs classify mining construction. The higher wage for mining was for mining only ...
what error ?? mining constuction workers are part of the mining component of salaries.... those construction workers were employed in the mining industry at the time - building the freaking mines... its the sector about to shed around 70,000+ high paid jobs... mostly mining construction.. fair to say a number of the tradies from the mines will go back to the construction industry on construction industry salaries. why not actually read the facts rather than mine for meanings you want to see ? amazing .. no wonder your rose coloured glasses are so thick .. you simply dont understand any of it ...
but this one takes the cake:
Quote:
The higher wage for mining was for mining only and there will be more of these positions available after the investment boom.
AS many as 75,000 resource-related jobs will be lost in the next couple of years as the industry’s $450 billion investment splurge on new capacity winds down, according to research by ANZ.
The toll on job numbers in the industry, as the switch from the job-intensive construction investment moves to the job-light operational phase, means the bank’s economists think there will be little improvement in the nation’s 5.8 per cent jobless rate.
ANZ senior economist corporate and commercial Justin Fabo said he expected 50,000 to 75,000 high-paid resources-related jobs to be shed across the economy during the next couple of years, creating a headwind to overall employment growth.
The report warns of a “highly volatile phase ahead”, as mining investment has peaked for the mining resources construction sector and predicts that the number of estimated jobs will reach 83,324 jobs in 2014 and then slump to just 7,708 in 2018—an estimated loss of over 77,000 jobs
The important bit highlighted for those who insist that we are currently making a smooth transition - the transition has not actually begun yet or is just barely beginning now.
Hopefully these numbers will not turn out to be that bad but expecting this to turn out all sunshine and roses seems a tad unrealistic to me.
The important bit highlighted for those who insist that we are currently making a smooth transition - the transition has not actually begun yet or is just barely beginning now.
Hopefully these numbers will not turn out to be that bad but expecting this to turn out all sunshine and roses seems a tad unrealistic to me.
I don't reckon we will see mass unemployment in WA simply because a lot of the people who were attracted here for the mining construction boom will go back to where they came from. We will also see a reduction in newcomers as the state becomes less attractive.
Residential construction may well be a short lived boom because we are building houses now for people who decided to build a year or so ago when conditions were better.
The drop in 457 applications is pretty big at minus 41% on 2012/2013 so it looks as though our population growth rate will take a tumble.
We will see falling wages without a doubt. Every wage in just about every sector in WA has been pushed up by the mining infrastructure boom as employers have had to compete for skilled workers. The fall in 457 applications is testimony to the recent slowing of demand for labour.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
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