Remember the net effect on the economy though. People swapping highly paid construction jobs for less paid jobs elsewhere means less disposable income.
She wont remember it because she doesn't understand this very basic principle in the first place.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Yes newjez .. Easy for the new arrivals to say how affordable Perth is in boom time .. When salaries more than doubled and value of dollar skyrocketed making things like cars not rise in price for 10 years ( not even counting inflation )
But those of us who have been here longer know the other side when dollar falls and wages stagnate . gotta make most of boom years
without quoting 'plop cycle' ..................listen here ya buttcheek;
you are a new migrant. You have absolutely no fucking idea about your job prospects here.
You can claim this and that about coming here from a third world country, and how nice and easy it is......... ........ but the reality is and what I am seeing now more frequently is the number of 'foreigners' being let go. They are all either long term jobless or having waited out the 'plop cycle'..............gone back!!!! including many Malay's.
Perth is very cyclic................Don't say I never told you nothing!
I would have personally thought their collective understanding of boom/bust would be even higher/more recent than ours - What with them having got whacked in the late 90s Asian Financial Crisis - But maybe it was only the youngies who came 'n their daddies omitted to tell them how things work?
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer:"negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
without quoting 'plop cycle' ..................listen here ya buttcheek;
you are a new migrant. You have absolutely no fucking idea about your job prospects here.
You can claim this and that about coming here from a third world country, and how nice and easy it is......... ........ but the reality is and what I am seeing now more frequently is the number of 'foreigners' being let go. They are all either long term jobless or having waited out the 'plop cycle'..............gone back!!!! including many Malay's.
Perth is very cyclic................Don't say I never told you nothing!
When I graduated our class was majority Malays .. This was tail end of 90's slowdown .. I would say 90% went back home as there were no jobs and the ones that were available paid like shit compared to what they could live on back home....
All part of the cycle .... Bust time is crap in Perth .. U may be employed but if ur company ddoesn't pay u as they've run out of business or u have to sign a part time contract and work full time hours just to get some cash it doesn't do u much good ...
without quoting 'plop cycle' ..................listen here ya buttcheek;
you are a new migrant. You have absolutely no fucking idea about your job prospects here.
You can claim this and that about coming here from a third world country, and how nice and easy it is......... ........ but the reality is and what I am seeing now more frequently is the number of 'foreigners' being let go. They are all either long term jobless or having waited out the 'plop cycle'..............gone back!!!! including many Malay's.
Perth is very cyclic................Don't say I never told you nothing!
New migrant probably means he is not a Bogan pisshead. Yeh he will get a job, but hell if it's supervising hungover ignorant Bogans it may be to much to take.
Actually, my uncle is Malay (well, Chinese-Malay). Never worked in mining though. He's a doctor, now part-retired and raising barramundi in his fish farm.
Completely irrelevant to this discussion I know, just thought I'd throw it in there
Prop Cycle
25 Sep 2014, 03:27 PM
From what I can see it is fairly certain that there will be a softening / correction in the market - especially when the approved buildings come into the market next year and early 2016.
I don't think there will be a crash, however it may be a long grilling 24 months before the market bottoms out after the peak.
Those who have bought in late 2007 would have paid interest for two years for no capital growth.
Then those who have bought in 2010 would have paid interest for two years for no capital growth.
Maybe those who have bought this year would be paying interest for the next two years for no capital growth.
Being a first gen migrant, I don't see how the Perth market will crash. It will soften from time to time no doubt, but not crash. Simple reason being that migrants like us had to pay heaps more for a home in our country (relative to our income). Not only that, vehicles, education, food etc all cost more relative to the income over there. Life's much tougher over there.
Trust me, life is very affordable here. Talking to ALL my friends who are first gen migrants, we come to a clear conclusion that we no longer need to work as hard as we used to, the missus can now stay home, vehicles are cheap and can be paid with cash (a $25k car here would cost over $100k over there), there's no need to save up a couple of hundred grand to send our kids overseas for better education, and now we can comfortably pay for a home mortgage plus an IP.
For some friends who have came over and decided to work as hard as they used to, good on them, they are now doing very very well.
The government will continue to take migrants to improve productivity and spur growth. As long as there is a big gap in living standards between here and where the migrants come from, they will continue to support property prices. To them, life is much easier, not harder.
I can fully understand how the locals would definitely feel a fall in affordability and living standards. It is the same as for my kids who grow up here - I continue to tell them that this is a free market. Like it or not, people movement around the globe will not cease, migrants will keep coming in. If you are not competitive, life will be tough for you.
Prop cycle - I'm not sure you understand the mining cycle.
The level of need for either locals or migrants to fill jobs that exist either directly or indirectly owing to the enormous mining investment boom will fall dramatically over the next few years, just as a large surge of new housing supply is coming on line in Perth.
Given that house price movements are only loosely attached to economic fundamentals in this country, I can't be sure of exactly what will happen but any free-marketeer will tell you what happens when falling demand crashes into surging supply.
The point remains how on earth can bears expect a crash with that particular freight train coming down the line.
OK, so can you explain how with all of this wealth, low unemployment and record low interest rates, price increases are below CPI in the 12 months to date and negative 1.2% in the quarter to date?
If everything is so great then prices should be increasing?
Also, why is immigration to WA falling?
Why have vacancy rates increased so much on a year ago?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
1st of all, Malay is a race, not a nationality. I'm a Chinese Malaysian, I'm not a Malay.
2nd, if you know enough, you should know that Chinese people in Malaysia are 2nd class citizens. Meaning we have to compete a lot harder to get a proper spot. For eg, you could get straight 10A's in your exam and still not get the course you want to do at Uni. A Malay on the other hand, could get 7A's and get to do medicine at Uni. We do not get equal access to a lot of public benefits. That's why our parents worked very hard to send us overseas.
3rd. Why migration is falling? One very good reason is because of the tight migration rules. It used to be very easy to apply for PR but it is much much harder now. Many uni students who want to stay back cannot do so, simply because of the tighter rule. Trust me if you did a survey on how many final year international students who would love to stay back, I bet you 80% would say they want to. Out of the 80%, maybe 60% will not be able to stay back. Many are happy to do any job to stay back, simply because living standards are higher here. When I first came here i had to work as a kitchen hand, and guess what, I was saving more money every month than I was back in Malaysia as an engineer. =) I can confidently say that a low-skilled job here can still give me a better living standard than working as an engineer over there. (Unless you run a business. Due to the low tax and very loose business environment, businesses usually brings you significant wealth) The problem is, many cant stay back without getting sponsorship from an employer. To be honest, if i went back to that job now, I could still afford both my personal home and IP mortgage. The earning power is huge in Australia. This is probably something you wont understand because you have not experience life in a developing country where the rich poor gap is huge. Relax the migration rule again, I guarantee you, migration rate will shoot up. Obviously the government won't do this because that will cause wages to go down significantly and the locals are not ready to accept that. If you think migration is purely tied to jobs, then I dare the government to loosen the migration rules and let any tertiary educated international student to stay back.
4th. Yes I fully agree with investment cycles. I've gone through the 98 financial crisis where you read in the news about people jumping off buildings almost every day. There will be ups and downs, but as long as there is a good prospect for high population growth, and good finance regulations in place, a crash would be unlikely. No doubt a slowdown / correction is inevitable. 80% LVR is required in Australia to avoid LMI. In Malaysia, 100% LVR, 40year loan is common. No LMI =) What I am trying to point out is, given the opportunity, many migrants are happy to pay to live in Australia because relatively speaking, life is much easier over here. The middle income people would like to work here, live here, because life is easier, life is better. The highly wealthy people would also like to live here, because with their health they can but a very good life in a 1st class country.
So yes I fully agree that there will be a slowdown, probably over the next two or three years. But a crash? I doubt.
I realise there are many extremists in this space. People who either cry "crash" or "boom".
Let me put it this way. In this world, there are not too many of the super-wealthy, not too many of the super-poor. But there's certainly many of the middle class people. There is always more of the "average". Not too many geniuses, not too many super-dumbs, but many of the normal you and me.
It goes the same with the economy, don't keep yelling "CRASH" or "BOOM". Most of the time it is the average normal ups and downs. Don't be an extremist.
Yes, my uncle told me that they were more or less second-class citizens. Pretty shit deal. He actually faced a bit of that when he came to Australia - my grandfather was NOT pleased that my aunt was going to marry an Asian. He had not long been involved in fighting a war against the Japanese and as far as he was concerned, all Asians were the same. Meanwhile, as a youth my uncle and his family actually spent time hiding from Japanese troops in Malaya. But he was ultimately accepted by my family (all of this before I was born of course) and he and my aunt moved to a rural town where he became respected as a doctor and a member of the community.
Nothing to do with mining or housing I know, just thought I'd share
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