Why not sign in with your usual moniker? you gave yourself away as you could not resist a bit of name calling Most projects seem to have somewhat better ratios of employment than the smaller facility in Queensland where you work as an I & E engineer.
Maybe it is you who has been Lulled into some false impressions of the inability of the Gas industry to generate jobs long-term? The Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association seem to disagree with your pessimistic assessments.
The main developers of Gorgon, Chevron Australia are building a huge new headquarters in Perth. They are expecting to make a lot of money here over the next 30 years and Gorgon is only one of their projects. It is naive to believe this will not have significant long term benefits for the local economy.
I am sure that for you the money making time for your boss's project is during the operational phase. WA large gas facilities nearing completion in WA are expected to deliver billions in government revenue and billions to the local economy for the next 30 years.
My point remains that house prices in WA are still at 2007 levels and much less than that in some areas. All of these long term Gas jobs and iron ore jobs were created since then. None of the extra revenue for the government was available in 2007. Why on earth should house prices retreat below those in 2007?
It is silly logic, Saudi, UAE and Qatar did not become wealthy when they were building their oil and gas facilities, they became wealthy when they started producing and selling oil and gas.
Sorry? I don't follow. I can assure you I am who I claim. You can accept my word or not, I won't lose any sleep over it.
You also need to remember that the employment ratios change depending on the size and purpose of the facility. For example, the curtis island facilities include power generation and ports which themselves have differing ongoing requirements. QGCs field compression and gathering facilities are a different concept to Origin etc. I assure you the figures I have postulated for the plants I'm involved with are correct.
With regards to the QCLNG link you posted on CSG benefits to employment, it was released in mid 2012 at the height of the CSG frenzy. Had you made your point then I would have agreed that there would be a massive winfall. In 2011 I made a transition from what was at the time a still solid coal industry into CSG because I could see signs that the former was heading downhill and the latter poised for explosive growth. Today I unfortunately see the same signs of looming disaster (wavering demand, low cost competitors, scramble of players to cut costs, lacking commitment to further ventures/expansion).
Back to the underlying report, you will note there is a claim of 20000 jobs every year until 2035 attributable to the CSG industry in QLD. As it stands, and please correct me if I'm wrong on this, no QLD CSG producer has committed to a phase 2 project. The closest is QGC whom have signed a contract for engineering services with WorleyParsons, however that doesn't stretch to full phase 2 EPC. This was supposed to have kicked off at the start of the year and at that time their schedule was impossibly optimistic. Everything has now gone quiet.
How are 20000 jobs going to be provided per annum in CSG, if construction on current projects cease circa 2016, with zero detailed design in the pipe? No new facilities = no new jobs.
Simple fact of the matter is this. ~20:1 persons are employed for construction:operations. This will vary depending on facility, play with the ratios how you wish. Bearing this, in two years time 19 out of 20 persons working in CSG will be unemployed.
With regards to the Gorgon project, cutting through the marketing speak they usually consider the life of the project only the design and construction phases. Those 3500 construction jobs will plummet to 300 once the plant is in service. Refer here: http://www.openaustralia.org/senate/?id=2014-09-02.168.1
I'm not saying house prices will implode because of the realities of the industry, there are many other factors in the economy. I'm just saying CSG won't be the saviour.
in two years, 19 out of 20 persons working in CSG will be unemployed
Well it doesn't look likely that they'll be transferring to coal or iron ore mining.
I think skamy' argument is that the production phase of resources is every bit as job-rich as the construction phase because the broader economy will receive a huge, ongoing boost from the export dollars. And that this will as a matter of course, create a self-perpetuating boom in further investment.
What skamy is overlooking is the difference between where the dollars spent on mining investment go and where the dollars earned in mining profits end up. The investment phase requires huge numbers of boots on the ground here in Oz. It requires a further army of indirectly-related workers to service those directly involved. It is unavoidable that large volumes of wages and profits flow back into the domestic economy as a result, giving the broader economy a boost, underpinning broader demand and therefore, employment growth.
But when the investment phase ends, this army of boots on the ground locally becomes almost entirely unnecessary. Only a small fraction of the number that were required to construct it are required to run it. The profits begin to flow as more dirt or gas is churned out - but now it becomes important as to who actually owns[\i] the profits. Whereas the army of locals who built it all naturally spent their money back into the domestic economy, there is no compulsion on foreign owners to do so - and most of the resource industry operating in Australia is foreign-owned. State and federal governments will rake back some taxes and royalties of course, but unless they are of an expansionary mindset, this money will not be spent back into the economy, it will instead be locked away in the ideological pursuit of budget surpluses.
Exactly what will happen as a result I really can't say but the shift from investment to operational does not look likely to be a large positive contributer to the economy.
What skamy is overlooking is 《 insert common sense argument 》
This has been explained to Skamy so many times, and her standard rejoinder is to ignore to it, throw up a few meaningless charts, and chastise you for attempting to scare young families away from buying into a housing market that will be forever slipping away from them.
Having arguments like this seem a bit pointless now, Mustapha/Foxbat is correct - the smart money has long gone from Perth and the carpet baggers on the east coast will be sensing an economy running on the delusional whiff of an oily rag, and preparing to move in for the fire sales any day now.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Sorry? I don't follow. I can assure you I am who I claim. You can accept my word or not, I won't lose any sleep over it.
You also need to remember that the employment ratios change depending on the size and purpose of the facility. For example, the curtis island facilities include power generation and ports which themselves have differing ongoing requirements. QGCs field compression and gathering facilities are a different concept to Origin etc. I assure you the figures I have postulated for the plants I'm involved with are correct.
With regards to the QCLNG link you posted on CSG benefits to employment, it was released in mid 2012 at the height of the CSG frenzy. Had you made your point then I would have agreed that there would be a massive winfall. In 2011 I made a transition from what was at the time a still solid coal industry into CSG because I could see signs that the former was heading downhill and the latter poised for explosive growth. Today I unfortunately see the same signs of looming disaster (wavering demand, low cost competitors, scramble of players to cut costs, lacking commitment to further ventures/expansion).
Back to the underlying report, you will note there is a claim of 20000 jobs every year until 2035 attributable to the CSG industry in QLD. As it stands, and please correct me if I'm wrong on this, no QLD CSG producer has committed to a phase 2 project. The closest is QGC whom have signed a contract for engineering services with WorleyParsons, however that doesn't stretch to full phase 2 EPC. This was supposed to have kicked off at the start of the year and at that time their schedule was impossibly optimistic. Everything has now gone quiet.
How are 20000 jobs going to be provided per annum in CSG, if construction on current projects cease circa 2016, with zero detailed design in the pipe? No new facilities = no new jobs.
Simple fact of the matter is this. ~20:1 persons are employed for construction:operations. This will vary depending on facility, play with the ratios how you wish. Bearing this, in two years time 19 out of 20 persons working in CSG will be unemployed.
With regards to the Gorgon project, cutting through the marketing speak they usually consider the life of the project only the design and construction phases. Those 3500 construction jobs will plummet to 300 once the plant is in service. Refer here: http://www.openaustralia.org/senate/?id=2014-09-02.168.1
I'm not saying house prices will implode because of the realities of the industry, there are many other factors in the economy. I'm just saying CSG won't be the saviour.
Skamy, do you think this guy is lulldapull? Lulldapull can't string two sentences together.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
This has been explained to Skamy so many times, and her standard rejoinder is to ignore to it, throw up a few meaningless charts, and chastise you for attempting to scare young families away from buying into a housing market that will be forever slipping away from them.
Having arguments like this seem a bit pointless now, Mustapha/Foxbat is correct - the smart money has long gone from Perth and the carpet baggers on the east coast will be sensing an economy running on the delusional whiff of an oily rag, and preparing to move in for the fire sales any day now.
I've been thinking that maybe skamy isn't a real person - maybe she's a sophisticated real estate bot whose creator has programmed her to ensnare as many young buyers as possible while waiting for an implosion so that they can swoop down like a buzzard and pick over the remains.
I think skamy' argument is that the production phase of resources is every bit as job-rich as the construction phase because the broader economy will receive a huge, ongoing boost from the export dollars. And that this will as a matter of course, create a self-perpetuating boom in further investment... - and most of the resource industry operating in Australia is foreign-owned. State and federal governments will rake back some taxes and royalties of course, but...
For starters, the property BooM experienced over the life of the mining construction boom was fuelled more by lax banking standards, low interest rates, and speculators buying extra houses for retirement security. Holden and Ford probably got as much of the miner's paypackets as the property industry did and look at where those 2 car makers are today. Bankrupt!
As for mining taxes and royalties, well they were always there and at the lower ore prices are probably fetching the same government income as before. The export dollar profits will be doing just that, exporting themselves back to a low tax country.
The boom we had from 2001 onward was a debt based boom, all the money earned across Australia was pissed up against the wall and now we as a nation have a private debt of 1.5 Trillion dollars. A small detail the bulls seem to gloss over in their analysis of how wealthy aussies are.
It's why frank bought a scooter and not a motorbike. He tells us it is because that's what he really wanted but in truth it's probably all he could afford. The era of impressing neighbors you don't like with new cars and new decks is over I am afraid. Will Perth *crash* as the sockpuppet scammy puts it? Who cares outside of the million odd who are chained there by their housing purchases.
They think they have won in the game of life, but living all your life in concrete and asphalt jungle is not actually living in my opinion. It's little better than being a dog on a chain waiting for someone to come home and play with you.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market. What else is he wrong about?
I think skamy' argument is that the production phase of resources is every bit as job-rich as the construction phase because the broader economy will receive a huge, ongoing boost from the export dollars. And that this will as a matter of course, create a self-perpetuating boom in further investment.
Perth property boomed up until 2007 due to a unique set of circumstances.
We had a large influx of migrants from the UK who had sold property in their own boom and converted their pounds to dollars at anything between $2.50 and $3.00 per pound. They arrived to a market in tight supply for both rentals and land. Rents and prices were bid up as a result.
The GFC caused the market to cool and Perth would most likely have seen a major correction if things had run their course. However, Chinese demand for resources was ramped up by their infrastructure stimulus program so we started to build mines.
At the same time, the WA government was spending big on local infrastructure such as the freeway extension, Fiona Stanley Hospital, Perth Arena etc. Chevron and Woodside were also constructing their gas plays. Competition for skilled labour became intense and migration numbers and wages increased. This placed upward pressure on rents and encouraged further investment buying.
Over the last six months however, migration numbers have started to fall with applications for 457's (the largest migrant group) down 43% in the first half of 2014. Rental vacancies have increased, dramatically so in the Perth apartment market.
At the same time, new home construction has increased as many new developments offer opportunities to buy cheaper than renting.
We are also seeing a lot of new apartments and offices being built that were planned when the market was booming but are being constructed in a soft market.
As the large resource projects wind down, we will see a fall in the numbers of higher paid workers at the same time as we see an increase in housing stock.
On top of this we have a state government facing a budget crisis as the falling Iron Ore price puts a hole in revenues.
We are at the start of a market correction and RP data seems to support that fact with the index showing a 1.4% fall in the qtr on qtr value. Over the last twelve months, Perth has just kept pace with CPI.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Perth property boomed up until 2007 due to a unique set of circumstances.
We had a large influx of migrants from the UK who had sold property in their own boom and converted their pounds to dollars at anything between $2.50 and $3.00 per pound. They arrived to a market in tight supply for both rentals and land. Rents and prices were bid up as a result.
The GFC caused the market to cool and Perth would most likely have seen a major correction if things had run their course. However, Chinese demand for resources was ramped up by their infrastructure stimulus program so we started to build mines.
At the same time, the WA government was spending big on local infrastructure such as the freeway extension, Fiona Stanley Hospital, Perth Arena etc. Chevron and Woodside were also constructing their gas plays. Competition for skilled labour became intense and migration numbers and wages increased. This placed upward pressure on rents and encouraged further investment buying.
Over the last six months however, migration numbers have started to fall with applications for 457's (the largest migrant group) down 43% in the first half of 2014. Rental vacancies have increased, dramatically so in the Perth apartment market.
At the same time, new home construction has increased as many new developments offer opportunities to buy cheaper than renting.
We are also seeing a lot of new apartments and offices being built that were planned when the market was booming but are being constructed in a soft market.
As the large resource projects wind down, we will see a fall in the numbers of higher paid workers at the same time as we see an increase in housing stock.
On top of this we have a state government facing a budget crisis as the falling Iron Ore price puts a hole in revenues.
We are at the start of a market correction and RP data seems to support that fact with the index showing a 1.4% fall in the qtr on qtr value. Over the last twelve months, Perth has just kept pace with CPI.
That's pretty much how I see it. The only saving grace is the dollar has room to fall.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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