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Why there will be no crash in Perth; Perth bears have their fantasy smashed
Topic Started: 21 Aug 2014, 02:38 AM (43,301 Views)
skamy
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Jimbo
23 Sep 2014, 11:59 PM


So how do you reason that an operational plant creates more work than a plant in construction?

Simple - one provides jobs for 20 years whereas one provides jobs for 3-4 years. Plus the fact remains that much of Perth is still priced at 2007 levels when there was less capex boom construction work AND less mining jobs. How can prices fall further? It is just not logical.

You are overestimating the effect that the construction boom had on property prices and underestimating the effect of the new long term jobs and earnings that these mines produce. You are also completely disregarding the very positive effects of the recovery in the local economy eg home construction and retail.

Now if that was not enough you are now having to assume that massive energy finds will not improve the local economy.

The case for a crash in Perth is just not there, the economic fundamentals are just too good.

Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Blondie girl
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Jimbo
23 Sep 2014, 11:59 PM
Blah blah blah
You are special.

Do we need to kiss your bum?

LMFO.
skamy
24 Sep 2014, 01:22 AM
Simple - one provides jobs for 20 years whereas one provides jobs for 3-4 years. Plus the fact remains that much of Perth is still priced at 2007 levels when there was less capex boom construction work AND less mining jobs. How can prices fall further? It is just not logical.

You are overestimating the effect that the construction boom had on property prices and underestimating the effect of the new long term jobs and earnings that these mines produce. You are also completely disregarding the very positive effects of the recovery in the local economy eg home construction and retail.

Now if that was not enough you are now having to assume that massive energy finds will not improve the local economy.

The case for a crash in Perth is just not there, the economic fundamentals are just too good.
Estimates of complete costings of any construction project is formulated from site establishment to completion is undertaken all costing which include Stuff like material, labour etc is accounted for.
Edited by Blondie girl, 24 Sep 2014, 01:30 AM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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skamy
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lulldapull
24 Sep 2014, 12:41 AM
you're talking to uneducated people Jim.......... :lol

These are just your common everyday buffoons. They know what's up, but won't admit it. Just disappear like the few who already have.
Lulldapull you have been consistently wrong on your silly predictions for mass unemployment in Perth and if you still seriously hold that view then I know for sure you know nothing about the state of things in WA.

I have been consistently right yet you accuse me of not being informed.

This is not a competition with sides to be taken, it is an analysis of the world as we see it. You are still stuck on the news.com GFC newsreel, you can wake up any time you choose.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Blondie girl
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Never mind...
Great to know 1 developer, 1 commercial builder, 1 residential builder(all big boys as they are the bossy ones), 1 chemical engineer , 4 civil engineers, an architect I pick his brains all the time really.

Night night.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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newjez
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Jimbo
23 Sep 2014, 11:09 PM
And those reductions happened when there was just a hint that things might turn bad. But they didn't. The Chinese rescued us and prices took off again.

But what will happen when we realise that the Chinese only gave us just enough momentum for a dead cat bounce?

What happens when things really go bad (like they are starting to right now)?
The first explorers to Australia found green and pleasant lands, but when the settlers followed, they found deserts.

You arrived at the perfect time. But that was luck. But you're looking at a desert from here on in.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Lef-tee
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Sitting here on the Gold Coast wishing I could control the weather. Supposed to be taking the family to Dreamworld today but it's cold, dreary and raining. I'm wishing, wishing, wishing with all my might but the rain just keeps on coming.

I need some of skamy's Magic wishing potion because as we all know, enough wishful thinking can alter the course of world events :)

Alternatively, I might decide that the weather is bigger than me and I can't control what is does so it's a good thing I made contingency plans so that the impact on us is not devastating.

House price movements are a bit different though - they aren't really attached strongly to economic fundamentals so they could do anything. Though I would tend to think there are some pretty strong headwinds beginning, especially in WA.
Whoa! The rain has slowed to a drizzle and I can even see a few dull rays of sunlight peeking through the clouds. My wishful thinking DID deflect a massive weather front! Thanks skamy. I'll be wishing for a winning first division lottery ticket all the way to the newsagent :)
Edited by Lef-tee, 24 Sep 2014, 07:27 AM.
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donno
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skamy
23 Sep 2014, 11:12 PM
When the gas projects complete there will be income from them and jobs. You pretend that the economic benefits were from building only this is just silly. It is not as if they are not planning on new Capex spending there is still plenty about and again you should know that.

You also claim that there will be less jobs when the opposite is true. there will be more jobs today in 2014/15 than there was in 2007 when house prices in Perth peaked.
Hi Skammy.

I'm currently the owner's E&I Engineer for two gas processing facilities in QLD (5 trains). At the peak of construction we had 400 people on the books. The permenant operations team is about 25.

Gas plants are completely different to coal or iron ore washplants. They are very clean requiring minimal maintenance, and do not require the handling of bulk materials, stockpiling, continual washdown, clearing blocked chutes etc.

Gas field gathering is very similar. It takes a lot of labour to build pipelines, drill wells and install electrical reticulation, but from there maintenace is minimal and everything is automated.

There will be no jobs boom from CSG post construction phase. As a matter of fact all our operations positions were filled before we started bulk earthworks on site.

Cheers,
John
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Jimbo
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skamy
24 Sep 2014, 01:22 AM
Simple - one provides jobs for 20 years whereas one provides jobs for 3-4 years. Plus the fact remains that much of Perth is still priced at 2007 levels when there was less capex boom construction work AND less mining jobs. How can prices fall further? It is just not logical.

Again, you are totally missing the point.

I am not going to go over and over the same things again.

You obviously have little understanding of how the resources sector works or how Perth works for that matter.

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Lef-tee
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Tsk, tsk donno - you aren't supposed to mention any truth that isn't all sunshine, roses and never-ending boom times for property speculators :)
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skamy
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Lef-tee
24 Sep 2014, 07:15 AM
Sitting here on the Gold Coast wishing I could control the weather. Supposed to be taking the family to Dreamworld today but it's cold, dreary and raining. I'm wishing, wishing, wishing with all my might but the rain just keeps on coming.

I need some of skamy's Magic wishing potion because as we all know, enough wishful thinking can alter the course of world events :)

Alternatively, I might decide that the weather is bigger than me and I can't control what is does so it's a good thing I made contingency plans so that the impact on us is not devastating.

House price movements are a bit different though - they aren't really attached strongly to economic fundamentals so they could do anything. Though I would tend to think there are some pretty strong headwinds beginning, especially in WA.
Whoa! The rain has slowed to a drizzle and I can even see a few dull rays of sunlight peeking through the clouds. My wishful thinking DID deflect a massive weather front! Thanks skamy. I'll be wishing for a winning first division lottery ticket all the way to the newsagent :)
Yeah I wished for oil and hey presto - then I wished for gas and hey presto - then I wished for jobs and hey presto.

I have always had a good bit of luck - I am an optimistic type but you give me too much credit.

:dry: Maybe I just go out and about in the Perth property market and maybe I just go to the right dinner parties. Maybe I am just a bit longer in the teeth than most on here and have been around this cycle a few times. Maybe I see through the MSN a lot better than many on here. :dry:


Anyway if I do have these magical abilities I am sending you lots of magical wishes for a fabulous day out with your littlies :)
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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