Cottesloe, City Beach, and in the Northern Beaches homes which sold for $5m plus were selling at less than $2m at one stage. Then there is Mandura, Lancelin, and Warnbro, Jimbo actually posted some examples of Warnbro homes on the market for 40% less than they were selling for in 2007.
When we arrived in Perth in 2011/12 we bought a house that was reduced from $800k to $600k and the market had started to turn at that stage. I remember you calling me an old fool and the forum idiot at that time. But I was right back then we have made a tidy profit on that purchase.
Places like Padbury, Duncraig, Warrick, Craigie were all highly discounted at that time. However they are now back to 2007 prices.
The upper market like City Beach is still slow and there are still heavily discounted properties how long will that last is anyone's guess. 2007 is a long time ago and it would be very very unusual if these prices did not start picking up again soon.
The truth is that the doomers sold lemons to young people, it got them headlines, fees for blogs etc etc. The crash came and now it is recovering and they have cost young people an opportunity, you do not owe them your loyalty Veritas.
Lef-tee
23 Sep 2014, 09:58 PM
Skamy - what goes up must sooner or later come down. There's nothing inherently bearish in pointing out a simple fact of life.
Leftee prices are down and they must at one stage go up. You have it back to front.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
When we arrived in Perth in 2011/12 we bought a house that was reduced from $800k to $600k and the market had started to turn at that stage. I remember you calling me an old fool and the forum idiot at that time. But I was right back then we have made a tidy profit on that purchase.
And those reductions happened when there was just a hint that things might turn bad. But they didn't. The Chinese rescued us and prices took off again.
But what will happen when we realise that the Chinese only gave us just enough momentum for a dead cat bounce?
What happens when things really go bad (like they are starting to right now)?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Skamy is grabbing onto something I said a couple of months ago. During the mental phase in 2007, some idiot near me put their house on the market for 1.2 million (it didn't sell). Now it is on for 599k.
There were many other examples of heavy discounting and you know this.
Quote:
I know WA is rich in resources. Everybody knows that.
I know that the rest of the world will need this stuff.
But we have just spent the last 10 years ramping up our ability to supply these resources and in effect we have already met the demand.
All we have to do now is dig the stuff up and that doesn't put anything like the amount of capital into the state.
How hard is that to figure out?
They have only just begun exporting the massive volumes that they are now capable of producing and even though the price of ore is down this is more to do with getting market share than anything else, and if you were anyone in this business you would know that.
When the gas projects complete there will be income from them and jobs. You pretend that the economic benefits were from building only this is just silly. It is not as if they are not planning on new Capex spending there is still plenty about and again you should know that.
You also claim that there will be less jobs when the opposite is true. there will be more jobs today in 2014/15 than there was in 2007 when house prices in Perth peaked.
I have also previously pointed out the Roy Hill project as an example and posted the fact that it is currently employing about 2000 staff and will peak at 4000 for a short time yet the mine will employ 2000 for 20 years on the same type of fifo wages. You are totally overestimating the impact of these construction phases completing on jobs and wages.
Now we have two major energy finds in a couple of months, yet you still believe that the economy will see house prices fall below these already discounted prices.
I have recently visited Ireland and people cannot believe that some Australians wished for a crash, they know of the suicides and trauma that followed the bad times and is still continue as people struggle after surviving the worst of the downturn there. Oil or gas finds are a pipe dream for people in the UK or Ireland.
Really Jimbo do you seriously think WA will not see positives from all this?
Perthite
23 Sep 2014, 10:42 PM
Time for the popcorn.
While you sit back and watch the world pass you by yet again.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
At least Mike got one thing right. Perth is fucked. 2015/2016 are not looking good.
I did not put it like that. Slow growth or flat.
Jimbo
23 Sep 2014, 11:09 PM
And those reductions happened when there was just a hint that things might turn bad. But they didn't. The Chinese rescued us and prices took off again.
But what will happen when we realise that the Chinese only gave us just enough momentum for a dead cat bounce?
What happens when things really go bad (like they are starting to right now)?
What is so bad?
The economy is growing at trend pace, unemployment is hovering around 6%.
The economy is growing at an average pace and unemployment is at a level most countries would be happy with. I except the unemployment rate in Australia to continue to trend down over the next few years, it has peaked.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
These are just your common everyday buffoons. They know what's up, but won't admit it. Just disappear like the few who already have.
What lullaby?
That Jim the Boy from Brentwood is special coz he's an Engineer like you?
An ERCM company for the mining industry! so what? You think you are the only ones?
Edit not ERCM , should be EPCM .
skamy
22 Sep 2014, 10:32 PM
Perthite Dont be daft residential is not any where near rolling over. Sure there is still some bargain buying in the upper market but even that is improving from 2011/2012 levels.
How may time have you believed the doomer fairy tales? How many times are they proved wrong? How on earth can you believe that a State with such huge sources of wealth and such an already discounted property market will crash is beyond me.
Perthite is an expert house sitter, I'm sure he will continue to have a promising future.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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