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Why there will be no crash in Perth; Perth bears have their fantasy smashed
Topic Started: 21 Aug 2014, 02:38 AM (43,305 Views)
szokolay
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The problem the property bulls seem to face is that they are a prey to anyone in a business suit who has a story with a happy ending. Everything they hold dear in life is composed of positive sound bites off the news which they post up here for the purpose of countering the actual real news behind the news and vested interests.

They don't seem to consider any of the headwinds facing the nation or the world as a whole to be a concern. In fact, they often see these as buying opportunities? A very gullible way to live ones life I would suggest.
Bardon
19 Sep 2014, 07:19 AM
The Kondratiev wave is only in half cycle,
Rubbish. It's a full cycle, boom and bust. Typically divided into 4 'seasons' You are obviously tryng to make a hypothetical 18 year property cycle conform to the Kondratiev business cycle. You will fail.
"No results found for "Kondratiev half cycle"."
http://www.bing.com/search?q=%22Kondratiev+half+cycle%22&go=Submit+Query&qs=ds&form=QBRE
Edited by szokolay, 19 Sep 2014, 07:21 PM.
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newjez
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Perthite
19 Sep 2014, 05:30 PM
I'm starting to wonder if gold is the next domino.
I think it's been supported between putin's tanks and isis machetes. Without those, I can see it dropping.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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newjez
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Interesting figures on REIWA. Surprised Mike hasn't commented on them.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Garden Variety
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Bardon
18 Sep 2014, 08:38 PM
I thought this was tight gas.
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Blondie girl
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Garden Variety
20 Sep 2014, 11:06 AM
I thought this was tight gas.
Better contribute with garden variety methane ..
Skamy..

No potential boom stuff on the horizon generally but there's no crash excitement. The only ones crashing is those who have put their hearts into some apartments & not getting the returns it should.
Edited by Blondie girl, 20 Sep 2014, 02:14 PM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Perthite
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Blondie girl
20 Sep 2014, 02:11 PM
Better contribute with garden variety methane ..
Skamy..

No potential boom stuff on the horizon generally but there's no crash excitement. The only ones crashing is those who have put their hearts into some apartments & not getting the returns it should.
Blondie there are already sectors of Perth RE that are mid bust. Granted it is not Residential but it is an interesting time.

The argument is essentially about sub sectors now. Which will and which won't roll over in Perth.
Edited by Perthite, 20 Sep 2014, 02:47 PM.
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Blondie girl
20 Sep 2014, 02:11 PM
Better contribute with garden variety methane ..
Skamy..

No potential boom stuff on the horizon generally but there's no crash excitement. The only ones crashing is those who have put their hearts into some apartments & not getting the returns it should.
Your delusional if you think its only units returns dropping Blondie.

House price rentals would have seen larger declines.

Look on oldlisings.com. google suburb name , rentals oldlistings.

Some are still holding up OK, but others are being slammed, the contagion is spreading pretty fast now.

Ultimately, unit returns dropping would have a follow on effect towards houses anyway.

With units rents dropping, and massive overbuilding in play, a brand new unit for $400 a week might be more enticing that $800 for that old shitbox house, specially if your have lost your job or had your income reduced. So this would reduce house rents aswell as more steer into these cheaper unit rentals.

If interest rates are not reduced soon and this overbuilding continues along with the collapse in the iron ore prices, rental declines will be at least 25% from peak by the end of next year, more likely closer to 30%, some perth areas are already seeing 20% declines from peak. And from there I expect the declines to continue for many years to come.

Rents have now peaked in all capitals blondie, and are set to decline for years, an historical first for our country. When do you ever remember US rates being jammed at zero for six years in your lifetime, does that sound like a balanced economy to you. Its shows just how completely screwed up things are blondie
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Garden Variety
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Blondie girl
20 Sep 2014, 02:11 PM
Better contribute with garden variety methane ..
you could do your part fer global warming by keeping yer trap shut too.
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Blondie girl
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Perthite
20 Sep 2014, 02:45 PM
Blondie there are already sectors of Perth RE that are mid bust. Granted it is not Residential but it is an interesting time.

The argument is essentially about sub sectors now. Which will and which won't roll over in Perth.
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Guest
20 Sep 2014, 03:06 PM
Your delusional if you think its only units returns dropping Blondie.

House price rentals would have seen larger declines.

Look on oldlisings.com. google suburb name , rentals oldlistings.

Some are still holding up OK, but others are being slammed, the contagion is spreading pretty fast now.

Ultimately, unit returns dropping would have a follow on effect towards houses anyway.

With units rents dropping, and massive overbuilding in play, a brand new unit for $400 a week might be more enticing that $800 for that old shitbox house, specially if your have lost your job or had your income reduced. So this would reduce house rents aswell as more steer into these cheaper unit rentals.

If interest rates are not reduced soon and this overbuilding continues along with the collapse in the iron ore prices, rental declines will be at least 25% from peak by the end of next year, more likely closer to 30%, some perth areas are already seeing 20% declines from peak. And from there I expect the declines to continue for many years to come.

Rents have now peaked in all capitals blondie, and are set to decline for years, an historical first for our country. When do you ever remember US rates being jammed at zero for six years in your lifetime, does that sound like a balanced economy to you. Its shows just how completely screwed up things are blondie
Hey mmmm master Teddy bear...

Do I need to be totally specific in my responses?

Despite the RBA's best motivations , we are indeed a cooling economy . The decreased IR were designed to try & stimulate things. Now rather than "crash " which is a term that gets casually abused is what you morons want.

Glenn Stevens correctly describes that returns on asset classes generally can be expected to be much lower in the way it's progressing...the low IR do make life easier on people's commitments to mortgages ..but does little to allevitate SOME declines in property prices . Butt..
Realize the fact that markets vary in differing areas.

Low IR does not reflect a healthy economy.

The "value " of rental is its returns it attracts , anyone going on just the CG ride is going to be in the poo poo. What you call some as crappy old houses will eventually make room for nice apartments in the future. I do wonder if you understand the significance of that ?
Especially if the props have been not flipped for ages..

Now, what do you think also hAppens to construction costs ! DO they go up or down?

There's 2 markets
1.owner occupier
2. investor
In both cases the smart people buy & hold in the long term & you will see positive results.

Like shares property is not a quick rich scheme.

There's cowboys & those who do know what they are doing. (I need those dummies so I can check their "urgent" sale)

Do you honestly think I'm scared shitless by what's going on .

Housing going sideways? Depends on whom?

No skin off my nose since we've got no more bank chains.
Market distortions exist for varying periods according to underlying reasons.
Edited by Blondie girl, 21 Sep 2014, 12:46 AM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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newjez
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Garden Variety
20 Sep 2014, 07:09 PM
you could do your part fer global warming by keeping yer trap shut too.
She's number 1 on my ignore list.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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