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Why there will be no crash in Perth; Perth bears have their fantasy smashed
Topic Started: 21 Aug 2014, 02:38 AM (43,308 Views)
Perthite
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Lef-tee
16 Sep 2014, 02:55 PM


Behind a Macrobusiness paywall - link to report is here
ouch.
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newjez
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Perthite
16 Sep 2014, 02:43 PM
There are quite a few projects nearing completion.

There have been warnings in the media that apartments are about to enter the market at a bad time.

You would expect the vacancies to be higher in the CBD as the office markets are contracting at around 20,000 square metres a quarter. Have been doing so for around 18 months. Obviously this would lead to less white collar jobs in the vicinity.
What has protected Perth in the past is that properties are built to order, and not mass produced by developers. Looks like perth has lost that protection. Just glad I'm not an over leveraged unit developer. But I'm sure Mike took my suggestion to heart and bought USD. He must owe me a drink now.
Lef-tee
16 Sep 2014, 02:55 PM


Behind a Macrobusiness paywall - link to report is here
There is no paywall.
Edited by newjez, 16 Sep 2014, 03:15 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Jimbo
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newjez
16 Sep 2014, 03:10 PM
What has protected Perth in the past is that properties are built to order, and not mass produced by developers. Looks like perth has lost that protection. Just glad I'm not an over leveraged unit developer.
Central Perth has always been underutilised as a residential area in the past. A true ghost city after 5pm in the evening.

That is changing now as more people opt to live closer to work and developers have been forced to go up due to lack of available land.

As you rightly say, Perth has traditionally been a build to demand market but now we are starting to create supply ahead of expected demand based on economic conditions that no longer exist.

The killer for the Perth property market is the time lag between conception and completion of apartment buildings. Most of what is going up now was planned during the height of the mining boom when rental vacancies were very tight and city rents were high.

Many will have been bought by people looking to cash in on those high rents and they will be disappointed.





Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Lef-tee
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Quote:
 
There is no paywall.


There is at Macrobusiness, that's why I linked directly to the report
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Massive
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Jimbo
16 Sep 2014, 04:00 PM
Central Perth has always been underutilised as a residential area in the past. A true ghost city after 5pm in the evening.


Many will have been bought by people looking to cash in on those high rents and they will be disappointed.




truth is, more residential in the center of the city is exactly what's needed in long term to get rid of the dull perception so many perthites cringe about - it truly is a ghost town on most nights and you do need to look down each street corner before walking down it after certain hours ..

Bit of a catch 22 - need the residents in the city center to make businesses that support them viable and justify the housing prices , but residents are not yet moving in due to lack of those lifestyle options and amenities and prices that outstrip many cosmopolitan global city centers that are FAR more livable.

give me paris, valencia, shanghai, lisbon, chicago, etc any other day of the week over a place that effectively shuts down at 5.30pm every night... perth has a couple of decades or more to go to hope to be up there and yet is priced assuming it already is..
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Jimbo
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Massive
16 Sep 2014, 04:22 PM
Bit of a catch 22 - need the residents in the city center to make businesses that support them viable and justify the housing prices , but residents are not yet moving in due to lack of those lifestyle options and amenities and prices that outstrip many cosmopolitan global city centers that are FAR more livable.

Perth was built during the age of the automobile and we have pretty much reached the limits of commuting distance urban sprawl.

I remember when Trigg was considered to be the sticks and Mandurah was a holiday town "down south".

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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PiratePete1911
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Jimbo
16 Sep 2014, 05:56 PM
Perth was built during the age of the automobile and we have pretty much reached the limits of commuting distance urban sprawl.

I remember when Trigg was considered to be the sticks and Mandurah was a holiday town "down south".
I see houses advertised in Mandurah with the sub heading "Just a quick train ride to the city."
Edited by PiratePete1911, 16 Sep 2014, 06:25 PM.
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Jimbo
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PiratePete1911
16 Sep 2014, 06:25 PM
I see houses advertised in Mandurah with the sub heading "Just a quick train ride to the city."
An hour on the train after a 15 minute drive to the station.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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PiratePete1911
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Jimbo
16 Sep 2014, 06:41 PM
An hour on the train after a 15 minute drive to the station.
Yeah, my grandparents are down there and we stay down there sometimes for holidays. I have never thought gee this sure is close to the city :lol
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newjez
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Lef-tee
16 Sep 2014, 04:08 PM


There is at Macrobusiness, that's why I linked directly to the report
Ah - sorry - I understand now.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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