My bet is on real value lost against inflation , compounded with loss in value in global terms with a reduction in value in the Australian dollar over time.
Crash or no crash , the market will be getting’ a bit funky from the stagnation when mining investment is wound up – it’s the way Perth rolls.
As someone who has been watching these REIWA figure for some time, there has been a drop of about 100 in the rental vacancies but a drop of 0.3% in the vacancy rate. Either they are fixing the figures or they have made a massive change in the way which they calculate the vacancy rate.
I get the same just by conducting realestate.com.au searches.
Of course, REIWA are an impartial, non vested interest body and there is no way they would cook the numbers.
It doesn't matter anyway. Their own numbers show vacancies up 42% in twelve months. A tiny decline (in their figures) over the last four weeks doesn't change anything.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
I get the same just by conducting realestate.com.au searches.
Of course, REIWA are an impartial, non vested interest body and there is no way they would cook the numbers.
It doesn't matter anyway. Their own numbers show vacancies up 42% in twelve months. A tiny decline (in their figures) over the last four weeks doesn't change anything.
It does because you claim vacancy rate is rising when data suggests it is falling. You claim stock on market is rising when it is decreasing. Sales this winter are up over 2013 levels which was the best winter for 7 years. Sales are up.
Everything I see in the market place supports the data,while certainly not booming it is a healthy market. So who is right. My obervations and data which also agrees with my view point. Or yours which the data does not support. It would seem your vision in impaired or at least to biased in one direction to offer a balanced view point.
My current comments on Perth would be a steady market with increasing activity. I think this is consistent with Perth having an unemployment rate of 5.2% vs the Nation having 6.4%.
Yes I agree, although there is still a lot of discounting in the high end market but under $800k is very good. As I have said I sold mine in the first week for a great price and my buyer sold theirs on the first home open and they had 3 offers.
There is just no way this is a bad market. Some people worry that too much stock might come on in spring and slow down prices. I am not too sure that will be a problem as much of the desperate sellers have cleared over the past few years. An increase in stock may herald a recovery in the upgrader market who knows.
Jimbo
21 Aug 2014, 10:36 AM
Rentals available has decreased by less than 2% in the last month. It has increased by 42% in the last twelve months.
Sales stock on market has decreased 2% in the last month but increased by 14% over the last 12 months.
Jimbo these figures are both good. When stock gets low prices get high.
The vacancy rate only rose by a few thousand properties. It was not the rising vacancy rates so much as the loss of the living away from home allowances that killed the big rental prices. It would not take too much to squeeze that vacancy rate again, but without the tax free rent from living allowances the big rents will not return IMHO.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Everything I see in the market place supports the data,while certainly not booming it is a healthy market. So who is right. My obervations and data which also agrees with my view point. Or yours which the data does not support. It would seem your vision in impaired or at least to biased in one direction to offer a balanced view point.
I am keeping my own stats based on searches that I carry out the main sites (realestate.com.au and reiwa).
I always do this when I have an interest in a market. I never rely on data provided by vested interest groups.
I break my data down into property types, areas and I also track asking and selling prices.
I like your comment about my view being biased in one direction. I am still laughing now.
What about the price of Iron Ore Mike? How did your predictions work out there?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
It does because you claim vacancy rate is rising when data suggests it is falling. You claim stock on market is rising when it is decreasing. Sales this winter are up over 2013 levels which was the best winter for 7 years. Sales are up.
Everything I see in the market place supports the data,while certainly not booming it is a healthy market. So who is right. My obervations and data which also agrees with my view point. Or yours which the data does not support. It would seem your vision in impaired or at least to biased in one direction to offer a balanced view point.
You need to be very careful about looking at the data over one or two months and thinking this is a trend. Both vacancy rates and stock on market are highly seasonal. That's Investor 101 stuff. Are you prediciting another 5-10% growth for Perth prices over the next year just the same as this time last year. I told you it'd be flat last year and for the next year you'll be lucky if it's only flat.
So should I go for a 95% mortgage in Perth now then?
No you should not go for a 95% mortgage, silly people do that these days. Why? because you have to throw money away at LMI.
If you want to buy a house that has crashed in value by 40% talk to Jimbo about Warnbro. Warnbro reminds me of the Central Coast 15 years ago. Nedlands, Dalkeith, Mindarie, Yanchep etc are also selling homes at bargain prices much less that 2007 values. It is your call. Do you think they will fall more than 40% below 2007 prices?
If WA state finances are so bad then the other States cannot continue to take WA GST revenue. The truth is that there has been loads of land sales, loads more stamp duty and loads more royalties(though the other states help themselves to WA GST which reduces this), State finances should be in better shape than they have been for a while, wait and see.
The problem with the price of iron ore is that the dollar is too high, but in terms of profits and royalties these are at really good levels due to the high volumes. BHP, Fortescue and Woodside all recently announced good results, these three companies have head quarters in Perth.
IMHO, there will be no further crashing house prices in Perth, that is an extremely long odds call.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
WA in budget trouble due to iron ore market optimism Royalties estimates in the Western Australian state budget have fallen well short of the mark due to the unexpectedly low price of iron ore this year.
Government estimates costed the budget assumed the average price of the commodity would be US$122.70 for the year, however the price has plummeted almost to US$90 per tonne.
According to the West Australian, every dollar less on the price of iron ore costs state coffers $49 million in mining royalties revenue for the year.
Premier Colin Barnett has said that larger production volumes will offset these financial shortfalls, but treasurer Mike Nahan does not share the leader’s open optimism.
“Clearly it’s an issue… I look at the price every day and it’s something that we’re going to have to address,” he said.
Nahan has refused to rule out the prospect of increased taxes or spending cuts.
and Monday:
Quote:
Lower prices may put further pressure on Western Australia’s credit rating, which was cut one level to AA+ by S&P in September. It would be “very difficult” for the government to restore its top grade if iron-ore prices remain soft, and it may require asset sales to do so, Bankwest’s Langford said in an Aug. 11 phone interview from Perth. While Moody’s Investors Service maintains a Aaa score, its outlook is negative.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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