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Why there will be no crash in Perth; Perth bears have their fantasy smashed
Topic Started: 21 Aug 2014, 02:38 AM (43,312 Views)
newjez
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SittingOnDeFence
9 Sep 2014, 09:56 AM
That's it in a nutshell I think
I think they are called govt projects aren't they?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Jimbo
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https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/wa/a/24934385/geologists-out-of-work/

Director of exploration and geology Chris Banasik said the Mt Monger gold miner received more than 50 applications for an exploration manager's role advertised last month.

"I was astounded at the quality of people in the market," Mr Banasik said. "We would never have had that many applications two or three years ago.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Veritas
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Jimbo
9 Sep 2014, 11:56 AM
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/wa/a/24934385/geologists-out-of-work/

Director of exploration and geology Chris Banasik said the Mt Monger gold miner received more than 50 applications for an exploration manager's role advertised last month.

"I was astounded at the quality of people in the market," Mr Banasik said. "We would never have had that many applications two or three years ago.
Just another silly gloomer.

He should go an cheer himself up by buying some investment properties.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Lef-tee
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Quote:
 
Have you any idea of the amount of natural gas about to be produced here?


I have a very good idea of the amount of natural hot air being produced here :)

There really isn't much to say in response because Perthite, Newjez, Jimbo and others have already said it to you more times than I can count. Denial is not just a river in Africa.
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Jimbo
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skamy
7 Sep 2014, 07:07 AM
Have you any idea of the amount of natural gas about to be produced here? How can you even think that WA will not continue to be very very wealthy for decades to come?

The shareholders of Woodside and Chevron will be well pleased.

Same as with the mining construction boom, once these sites are finished, they need far fewer people to operate.

Also, O&G has created a lot of manufacturing jobs in WA due to the regulatory need for intense inspection and certification of anything carrying gas. The local Engineering sector is starting to slow down as packages complete.

But don't take my word for it that the capex slowdown will impact the WA economy.

Ask any politician, economist or the next bloke you see in the street (unless it is Mike).

There are only two people in WA who don't understand what we have just experienced and what is coming.

Even the RE sector knows we are facing a slowdown. The best picture they can paint is of flat to minimal price growth (RE talk for slump).

Edited by Jimbo, 9 Sep 2014, 03:36 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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newjez
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Jimbo
9 Sep 2014, 03:23 PM
The shareholders of Woodside and Chevron will be well pleased.

Same as with the mining construction boom, once these sites are finished, they need far fewer people to operate.

Also, O&G has created a lot of manufacturing jobs in WA due to the regulatory need for intense inspection and certification of anything carrying gas. The local Engineering sector is starting to slow down as packages complete.

But don't take my word for it that the capex slowdown will impact the WA economy.

Ask any politician, economist or the next bloke you see in the street (unless it is Mike).

There are only two people in WA who don't understand what we have just experienced and what is coming.

Even the RE sector knows we are facing a slowdown. The best picture they can paint is of flat to minimal price growth (RE talk for slump).
Maybe skamy should stay off the onions?
Jimbo
9 Sep 2014, 03:23 PM
The shareholders of Woodside and Chevron will be well pleased.<br /><br />Same as with the mining construction boom, once these sites are finished, they need far fewer people to operate.<br /><br />Also, O&G has created a lot of manufacturing jobs in WA due to the regulatory need for intense inspection and certification of anything carrying gas. The local Engineering sector is starting to slow down as packages complete.<br /><br />But don't take my word for it that the capex slowdown will impact the WA economy.<br /><br />Ask any politician, economist or the next bloke you see in the street (unless it is Mike). <br /><br />There are only two people in WA who don't understand what we have just experienced and what is coming.<br /><br />Even the RE sector knows we are facing a slowdown. The best picture they can paint is of flat to minimal price growth (RE talk for slump).<br />
Maybe skamy should stay off the onions?
Edited by newjez, 9 Sep 2014, 10:27 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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skamy
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SittingOnDeFence
9 Sep 2014, 09:56 AM
That's it in a nutshell I think
Of course it is not true. WA has built mines that are extracting ore at a ridiculously low price,these mines will provide thousands of jobs for decades. Jobs that did not exist in 2007 when Perth saw higher house prices that it does today.

Jimbo you are wrong when you talk about people buying and building houses during the boom, this is just not true during the peak of the mining investment boom house prices were stagnant and dropped markedly. In your are houses are discounted by about 40% from 2007 prices how can you seriously believe they will fall more than that?


Veritas
9 Sep 2014, 12:02 PM
Just another silly gloomer.

He should go an cheer himself up by buying some investment properties.
We all know the exploration phase is past for the near term. This is the production /export stage and that is where jobs are being created. Plus construction jobs are growing in every state as residential construction is growing very strongly.

You will not see much decline in employment Veritas, wait and see.

Edited by skamy, 10 Sep 2014, 06:19 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Lef-tee
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Quote:
 
We all know the exploration phase is past for the near term.


Yes but much more importantly, the construction boom phase is drawing to a close. This is where the great majority of the jobs are generated, both directly and indirectly.

Quote:
 
This is the production /export stage and that is where jobs are being created.


I am going to assume that you clearly understand that what you have said above has no basis in factual reality (except perhaps through some murderous torturing of context) and are simply hoping against hope for a remarkable turnaround. They do happen though so you might be lucky! But I wouldn't be betting the house on it.
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skamy
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Lef-tee
10 Sep 2014, 06:50 AM


Yes but much more importantly, the construction boom phase is drawing to a close. This is where the great majority of the jobs are generated, both directly and indirectly.




I am going to assume that you clearly understand that what you have said above has no basis in factual reality (except perhaps through some murderous torturing of context) and are simply hoping against hope for a remarkable turnaround. They do happen though so you might be lucky! But I wouldn't be betting the house on it.
Take Roy Hill for example, at peak it will employ 4000 construction workers but less that that for most of the project. This project will create 2000 jobs and will operate for 20 years.

There will be no major downturn as the investment stage tails off, why? because Australia has had billions invested in its future.

Don't believe the hype of the news.com media, there will not be a major effect as we move from the construction phase to the money making phase.

Read this
http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2014/jun/26/rba-member-argues-its-far-from-doom-and-gloom-after-mining-boom
Quote:
 
Far from suggesting the mining boom is over, and with it our economic prosperity, Edwards suggests “in some important respects, [the mining boom] has barely begun”.

He notes, though, that it will be a different boom, one that shifts from being “about investment in mines, and high prices for iron ore and coal” to, “within another year or two”, being about liquid natural gas. And, in this boom, he argues that “Japan and South Korea will be as important as China”.


Edwards argues that Australian incomes and productivity grew faster in the decade prior to the mining boom. He is basically stating the obvious that there were serious headwinds from the GFC that impacted negatively during the mining investment boom.

These parts of the economy are recovering strongly. Some of the less informed bears only see the falling Capex and they ignore the huge positives of a return to decent levels of home building and some recovery in retail.

If the major players really thought the Australian economy was going south, why is the dollar so stubbornly high?
Edited by skamy, 10 Sep 2014, 05:30 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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John Frum
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skamy
10 Sep 2014, 07:59 AM

If the major players really thought the Australian economy was going south, why is the dollar so stubbornly high?
Hint: it's something to do with interest rates and security, and nothing to do with our ability to invest in our future.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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