Please tell me where I stated it was Capex data for WA?
Mike,
Do you never give up?
So first you try to get around your mistake by insisting I answer a load of questions. Then you come back full of it telling me that ABS says that capex is actually up seasonally adjusted and that I am wrong (except that you looked at Australia as a whole and not WA). Now you claim that you were not talking about WA in the first place.
It is a thread on Perth prices. WTF has Capex in NSW or QLD got to do with WA?
Quote:
Why is Capex data rising, why is unemployment one of the leading states in the nation despite a large fall off in mining investment
You are referring to WA in the second half of the above sentence in response to posts about Perth property. Why would you look at Australia wide capex numbers in relation to Perth property?
The fact is that you didn't. You looked at the dollar value for WA, saw it was higher than the previous quarter and jumped to the wrong conclusion. You don't understand basic business accounting practice.
Stop trying to wriggle Mike, you thought WA capex was increasing when it isn't.
Quote:
I also stated I expect Capex to decrease over the longer term but you did not quote that did you?
I'm quoting it now Mike. So what does that prove? Is this another one of your predictions? Just to let you into a little secret, Blind Freddy and his cat knows that WA capex is going to fall dramatically and they have known that fact for the last few years (at least). Plonker.
You can't read simple ABS information. Face it Mike, you are an idiot.
Keep bumping this thread up BTW. Way to get more egg on your face.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
So first you try to get around your mistake by insisting I answer a load of questions. Then you come back full of it telling me that ABS says that capex is actually up seasonally adjusted and that I am wrong (except that you looked at Australia as a whole and not WA). Now you claim that you were not talking about WA in the first place.
It is a thread on Perth prices. WTF has Capex in NSW or QLD got to do with WA?
You are referring to WA in the second half of the above sentence in response to posts about Perth property. Why would you look at Australia wide capex numbers in relation to Perth property?
The fact is that you didn't. You looked at the dollar value for WA, saw it was higher than the previous quarter and jumped to the wrong conclusion. You don't understand basic business accounting practice.
Stop trying to wriggle Mike, you thought WA capex was increasing when it isn't.
I'm quoting it now Mike. So what does that prove? Is this another one of your predictions? Just to let you into a little secret, Blind Freddy and his cat knows that WA capex is going to fall dramatically and they have known that fact for the last few years (at least). Plonker.
You can't read simple ABS information. Face it Mike, you are an idiot.
Keep bumping this thread up BTW. Way to get more egg on your face.
You do come across very desperate.
You are the one talking up a decrease in Capex in how it will affect WA.
So now backup your claims.
I am asking direct questions to you on how Capex will affect WA. You cannot answer them, you keep avoiding it.
If as you say is true and Capex has been declining since 2012, why have house prices increased by over 15% in a declining Capex environment. High paid job have also been falling, as we are so often told by bears. Yet property prices continued to grow.
In the period in which Capex was rising strongly 2011 Perth property prices decreased, why is this when the state was Booming which huge Capex?
Since you think Capex is so important, just answer those questions. Simple enough.
I never said I was talking about WA Capex, it is pointless in a national economy as much of the Capex in dollar terms is manufactured in the East of Australia or Asia. Just ask our local manufactures who were screaming for work while it all went off shore or to cheaper manufactures over East. You can keep quoting me, but the fact is I never said I was talking about WA Capex. If you want to talk about WA Capex, lets do so and answer the questions above and I will give my reply to your response.
You do like to hurl the abuse, a sure fire sign you know you cannot debate the topic on its merits.
If as you say is true and Capex has been declining since 2012, why have house prices increased by over 15% in a declining Capex environment. High paid job have also been falling, as we are so often told by bears. Yet property prices continued to grow.
I dont know what the Capex figures are for WA, except to say that they will decline because the must.
What I do know is that 20,000 ( count them) jobs have been lost in the mining sector since 2012.
What does this tell you about the capex figures Mike?
As for house prices, well, record low interest rates baby, combined with relatively robust but deteriorating fundamentals.
Mortgage rates can probably go a tad lower, but pretty much the monetary policy wad has been spunked.
The fundamentals will take it from here.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
You are the one talking up a decrease in Capex in how it will affect WA. If as you say is true and Capex has been declining since 2012, why have house prices increased by over 15% in a declining Capex environment. High paid job have also been falling, as we are so often told by bears. Yet property prices continued to grow.
In the period in which Capex was rising strongly 2011 Perth property prices decreased, why is this when the state was Booming which huge Capex?
Mike,
Some of the largest dollar values in mining capex are in the FEED stage.
Then there is component manufacture (some of which goes overseas and interstate).
Then there is the boots on the ground construction phase.
The impact on house prices is dependent on the amount of that capex expenditure going towards wages at any particular stage (because people buy houses).
So an ore crusher or conveyor being built in China with a high dollar value, does not necessarily employ many people in WA. Neither do the camp accommodation modules, ship loaders etc. etc. The employment ramps up when these items arrive and need to be installed.
So to draw a simple graph comparing capex with house prices reveals very little in the short term.
However, when capex is due to slow markedly, you can predict with great certainty that jobs in those sectors will fall and wages in general will fall (the reverse of the ramp up in capex).
Quote:
I never said I was talking about WA Capex,
I have to call bullshit on that claim. When you originally stated that capex was increasing, I pointed out that WA capex was falling seasonally adjusted. You replied triumphantly that it wasn't but quoted the whole Australia numbers from the ABS website.
It is only when you realised your mistake three or four posts later, that you changed your story to claim that you were not talking about WA capex?
Again Mike, you referred to WA unemployment figures and WA new construction but now claim that you were referring to Australia wide capex in the same sentence when you were not.
You made a mistake and you have been trying to wriggle out of it for half a day.
Instead, you are just making yourself look even more stupid.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
I dont know what the Capex figures are for WA, except to say that they will decline because the must.
What I do know is that 20,000 ( count them) jobs have been lost in the mining sector since 2012.
What does this tell you about the capex figures Mike?
As for house prices, well, record low interest rates baby, combined with relatively robust but deteriorating fundamentals.
Mortgage rates can probably go a tad lower, but pretty much the monetary policy wad has been spunked.
The fundamentals will take it from here.
Show me links to this data as I am very suspicious because a) mining construction is counted by the ABS as construction NOT mining and I doubt very much mining jobs straight up have dropped overall to any significant degree.
Quote:
NUMBER OF PEOPLE EMPLOYED IN THE MINING INDUSTRY With only 5% of the workers who usually lived in Perth in 2011 being employed in the mining industry, Perth is generally not regarded as being a mining town.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Show me links to this data as I am very suspicious because a) mining construction is counted by the ABS as construction NOT mining and I doubt very much mining jobs straight up have dropped overall.
I thought you would have your finger on the pulse of all the relevant ABS data?
Its all there, mining down 20,000 jobs in WA since August 2012.
Construction on the slide too, down 8000 jobs in the last couple of quarters
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
If your shopping for a rental I've got 1 avail in November, do pm me if you don't intend on doing the home ownership jump.
I may discount you a teeny weeny .
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
If your shopping for a rental I've got 1 avail in November, do pm me if you don't intend on doing the home ownership jump.
I may discount you a teeny weeny .
Okay, will do.
But if i change my mind, hopefully you wont be without a tenant for too long.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Some of the largest dollar values in mining capex are in the FEED stage.
Then there is component manufacture (some of which goes overseas and interstate).
Then there is the boots on the ground construction phase.
The impact on house prices is dependent on the amount of that capex expenditure going towards wages at any particular stage (because people buy houses).
So an ore crusher or conveyor being built in China with a high dollar value, does not necessarily employ many people in WA. Neither do the camp accommodation modules, ship loaders etc. etc. The employment ramps up when these items arrive and need to be installed.
So to draw a simple graph comparing capex with house prices reveals very little in the short term.
However, when capex is due to slow markedly, you can predict with great certainty that jobs in those sectors will fall and wages in general will fall (the reverse of the ramp up in capex).
I have to call bullshit on that claim. When you originally stated that capex was increasing, I pointed out that WA capex was falling seasonally adjusted. You replied triumphantly that it wasn't but quoted the whole Australia numbers from the ABS website.
It is only when you realised your mistake three or four posts later, that you changed your story to claim that you were not talking about WA capex?
Again Mike, you referred to WA unemployment figures and WA new construction but now claim that you were referring to Australia wide capex in the same sentence when you were not.
You made a mistake and you have been trying to wriggle out of it for half a day.
Instead, you are just making yourself look even more stupid.
You have a very simplistic thought process and one dimensional.
If Capex has been falling as you state since June 2012, over 2 years ago why has employment continued to grow. In those two years WA's population increased by over 150,000 people. Yet unemployment remains low.
The forums is constantly bombarded with job losses posted by bears, yet unemployment remains low.
If the mining investment boom (Capex) has such a profound affect you might have to tell the RBA as they now disagree with you're view point. It has long been over stated.
This is why you wrong in you're predictions, wrong on the influences of Capex and the broader impact on the economy.
Of course it has an impact, but a far less impact then you might think. We are seeing this play out over the past 2 years and it will continue to play out over the next 2-3 years.
I find it amusing you expect us all to believe you, when you have friends in Real Estate who have buyers lined up to buy your house for 10-15% above todays prices only a few months ago. That is some fine bullshit.
Veritas
3 Sep 2014, 01:50 AM
I thought you would have your finger on the pulse of all the relevant ABS data?
Its all there, mining down 20,000 jobs in WA since August 2012.
Construction on the slide too, down 8000 jobs in the last couple of quarters
Why then is unemployment still so low, during this same time period house prices increased. It is not just interest rate cuts.
The economy was booming in 2011, yet house prices fell. None of you can yet provide an answer.
The reason you don't know or wont type it is because it is counter to all the Bearshit you are spoon feed.
Anyway I am happy to let time prove you wrong, we will watch and see how events unfold.
The most accurate prediction I will ever make is most Bears will still be here in 1-2 years time waiting....waiting....waiting for an event that never comes. The smart Bears will listen to the Wife and buy when it best suits you're life or family situation not due to some half wits on a forum and that includes me.
You have a very simplistic thought process and one dimensional.
If Capex has been falling as you state since June 2012, over 2 years ago why has employment continued to grow. In those two years WA's population increased by over 150,000 people. Yet unemployment remains low.
Christ on a bike Mike.
Which part of not all capex results in WA jobs didn't you get?
I thought you worked in construction? Obviously not big stuff.
I am not going to spend hours trying to explain how a minesite goes from feasibility, to FEED, procurement and then construction.
If you want some free lessons, borrow a book or something.
As for my house sale, again, totally true.
Unlike your fantasy high powered construction job and your network of analysts.
FFS. Who starts their own economics blog, posts two bullshit articles on it and then links to that blog in their post footers?
"Oooh look at me, I'm an economist, I have my own blog you know." (with zero followers)
What a dickhead.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
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