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Why there will be no crash in Perth; Perth bears have their fantasy smashed
Topic Started: 21 Aug 2014, 02:38 AM (43,319 Views)
Blondie girl
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Hey skamy
Life does go for some you know don't let the Bastids get you down.

Some of them just don't get it.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Jimbo
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skamy
24 Aug 2014, 12:38 PM
I am enjoying the banter, I know some will never change it seems in their nature to hope for some black swan event to change everything they think is wrong in the world.
I am not waiting for a black swan? I am bearish on Perth property right now because all of the indicators tell me to be bearish.

Since I sold my property six weeks ago, rental vacancies in my area have increased 15%.

This area has been a magnet for new arrivals to WA due to its affordability, proximity to the railway, freeway and beach and those new arrivals have stopped coming (or slowed considerably).

Growth requires growth and I am not seeing that at the moment.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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newjez
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Jimbo
24 Aug 2014, 01:18 PM
I am not waiting for a black swan? I am bearish on Perth property right now because all of the indicators tell me to be bearish.

Since I sold my property six weeks ago, rental vacancies in my area have increased 15%.

This area has been a magnet for new arrivals to WA due to its affordability, proximity to the railway, freeway and beach and those new arrivals have stopped coming (or slowed considerably).

Growth requires growth and I am not seeing that at the moment.
I think skamy's praying for a white knight. It's not going to happen. The Chinese don't know where Perth is.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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skamy
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Jimbo
24 Aug 2014, 01:18 PM


Growth requires growth and I am not seeing that at the moment.
Last I saw WA was growing at 4% that is hardly sluggish growth. Most economies would love to see a stat like that.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Lef-tee
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skamy
1 Sep 2014, 05:07 PM
Jimbo
24 Aug 2014, 01:18 PM


Growth requires growth and I am not seeing that at the moment.
Last I saw WA was growing at 4% that is hardly sluggish growth. Most economies would love to see a stat like that.
It gets tiring pointing out that the mining investment boom is still going. It will be still going in at least a year from now, probably a couple of years, though it is very likely to have diminished sharply in size by then.
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skamy
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Lef-tee
1 Sep 2014, 05:22 PM
It gets tiring pointing out that the mining investment boom is still going. It will be still going in at least a year from now, probably a couple of years, though it is very likely to have diminished sharply in size by then.
It also gets tiring pointing out that exports have grown and so has residential construction. Long term well paid permanent mining jobs have also increased.

The things that are pertinent are that Perth is not just a mining town, however it contains the headquarters of some of the largest mining companies in the world and they are doing very well indeed right now.

WA sits on almost half this rich continent, it has a miniscule population relative to our neighbours. Its people are the richest per capita in Australia, savings rates are high, debt is low, unemployment is the lowest in all the states, wages are high etc etc.

Look at the house prices in Warnbro, loads of big detached homes on 700+ sqm for under $400k in a beach side suburb with a railway line 38 min from Perth. There are places like this all around Perth that are still being sold at 20% to 40% below 2007 prices.

IMHO these prices can only rise from here. Veritas is suggesting another drop of 25% plus, do you seriously believe this will happen.

Do you seriously believe that Veritas should put off home ownership or is it your view that if he or Perthite ever does hope to buy the lower prices on offer today should be good enough.

I would not feel right at all to encourage young people to expect a crash in Perth, it clearly is not going to happen.



Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Jimbo
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skamy
1 Sep 2014, 05:47 PM
It also gets tiring pointing out that exports have grown and so has residential construction. Long term well paid permanent mining jobs have also increased.


So if everything is so perfect in Perth, why is the rental vacancy rate rising and why is the Perth median house price falling (average over last eight weeks is 524k and last week came in at 510k)?

And if this is happening now, whilst things are so perfect, what happens when mining capex really starts to fall back?

All those other things you quote, like the size of WA and that WA has more than just mining etc. That has always been the case so things that always were, are not going to make prices suddenly go up.

Why is Perth more expensive than Brisbane (by 60k) or Adelaide (by 110k)?


Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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skamy
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Jimbo
1 Sep 2014, 06:13 PM
So if everything is so perfect in Perth, why is the rental vacancy rate rising and why is the Perth median house price falling (average over last eight weeks is 524k and last week came in at 510k)?

And if this is happening now, whilst things are so perfect, what happens when mining capex really starts to fall back?

All those other things you quote, like the size of WA and that WA has more than just mining etc. That has always been the case so things that always were, are not going to make prices suddenly go up.

Why is Perth more expensive than Brisbane (by 60k) or Adelaide (by 110k)?


The vacancy rate is not falling and prices are not falling. Rental listings are falling bring the vacancy rate back down to 3.8%. The latest RP data has 0.6% growth on the quarter. Reiwa has Warnbro running at 6% annual growth.


Perth is richer per capita and has higher wages and lower unemployment than Adelaide or Brisbane. Both of these cities are also good value for money right now IMHO. Adelaide has high yields and one day Olympic Dam will go ahead generating decades of wealth for the State.

As you already know median house prices do not really tell the whole story as the median house in Perth is much larger and closer to the city than the median house price in Sydney.

There is still a lack of confidence in Perth especially at the top end and that is holding things back a bit but there will not be any more big price drops IMHO. Most property in Perth is still selling at way below 2007 prices that cannot last forever.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Veritas
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skamy
1 Sep 2014, 05:47 PM
It also gets tiring pointing out that exports have grown and so has residential construction. Long term well paid permanent mining jobs have also increased.

Quote:
 
It also gets tiring pointing out that exports have grown and so has residential construction. Long term well paid permanent mining jobs have also increased.


No they haven't. You are very, very full of shit.

Mining jobs in WA have been trending down for two years now.

20,000 jobs gone since the peak in August 2012.

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6291.0.55.003May%202014?OpenDocument

Mining and Construction (which is, as we keep telling you, intersects heavily with Mining) employs 20% of the full time workforce.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Jimbo
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skamy
1 Sep 2014, 06:29 PM
Perth is richer per capita and has higher wages and lower unemployment than Adelaide or Brisbane.
And why is that?

It is because we are in the tail end of a mining construction boom that is due to taper down dramatically in the coming years.

We are also building a lot of houses for people who committed to buying 9 months or a year ago. Again, this mini construction boom will taper off.

So what happens when our wages fall to the levels of Brissy and Adelaide?

You can harp on all you like about new offices and stadiums and so on, but Perth isn't that old. Every big tower in the city was built in the last 40 years. Building office blocks doesn't inject anything like the capital into the state that a mining capex boom does.

I don' trust REIWA numbers. In Warnbro, rental vacancies are up 17.5% (just checked again) 20.25% in just eight weeks. That excludes the eight properties that were rented out and are now listed for sale.



Edited by Jimbo, 1 Sep 2014, 07:54 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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