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Major dip in China’s property market; It's finally happening.
Topic Started: 20 Aug 2014, 08:46 PM (1,463 Views)
goldbug
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New home prices dropped in 64 of 70 cities, the highest proportion seen since records began in July 2005, according to the National Bureau of Statistics
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11041222/China-property-slump-where-house-prices-are-falling-fastest.html
The news dovetails well with this analysis from back in March, 5 months ago

Looming property default in China raises fears of broader crisis

Nomura said the number of ghost towns has spread beyond the well-known disaster stories of Ordos and Wenzhou to at least eight other sites

China faces the biggest property default on record as credit curbs threaten to break the housing boom, leaving a string of “ghost towns” across the country.
The Chinese newspaper Economic Daily News said Xingrun Properties, in the coastal city of Ningbo, is on the brink of collapse with debts of $570m, mostly owed to banks. The local government has set up a working group to contain the crisis. “As far as we know, this is the largest property developer in recent years at risk of bankruptcy,” said Zhiwei Zhang, from Nomura.

“We believe that a sharp property market correction could lead to a systemic crisis in China, and is the biggest risk China faces in 2014. The risk is particularly high in third and fourth-tier cities, which accounted for 67pc of housing under construction in 2013,” he said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/10703990/Looming-property-default-in-China-raises-fears-of-broader-crisis.html
Edited by goldbug, 21 Aug 2014, 07:39 AM.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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miw
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goldbug
21 Aug 2014, 07:30 AM
The news dovetails well with this analysis from back in March, 5 months ago
Which matches what the China bear press was saying 12 months before that. And 6 months before that.

Quote an anecdote or two (out of date is OK), interview a bear or two, predict imminent disaster.

If the disaster does not eventuate, then repeat in another few months when you have column inches to spare.

If there was going to be a big credit crunch it would have happened in May because that was when the big credit rollovers were going to happen. But it didn't. Meantime the China Real Estate Index (shares of the big developers) bottomed out in April and is up 30% since then. Whom do you believe?

I don't profess to know what is going to happen to Chinese Real estate from here on. But I sure wouldn't be betting my hard-earned on the article in the OP being correct.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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