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Europe in Depression. Worse than the 1930s.; Another kick in guts for the property bulls.
Topic Started: 17 Aug 2014, 11:03 PM (3,423 Views)
Jimbo
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cokatoo56
19 Aug 2014, 08:24 PM
what could the US do to re boost their economy for real ? (as past stimulus, like their $700 billion injected by the gov, didn't prove to be working)
(hint : it worked tremendously well in the 20th century)
It worked for the USA because they didn't join until until the end. Prior to that, they supplied arms and food for the combatants in exchange for Gold.

They were also nicely positioned so that their infrastructure didn't get destroyed in the melee and when it was all over, they were able to sell even more stuff for everybody else to rebuild with.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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cokatoo56
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I don't see what would prevent them from doing it again.
A tricky exercise though. They have to cause a conflict serious enough so that it can grow global, while showing proofs they are not responsible for the conflict, and far enough from them so that they are not directly involved in the global conflict, and can just watch while they sell weapons and cash in. hmm :dry: ... ukraine looks like a good place
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Jimbo
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cokatoo56
19 Aug 2014, 09:31 PM
I don't see what would prevent them from doing it again.
A tricky exercise though. They have to cause a conflict serious enough so that it can grow global, while showing proofs they are not responsible for the conflict, and far enough from them so that they are not directly involved in the global conflict, and can just watch while they sell weapons and cash in. hmm :dry: ... ukraine looks like a good place
Very true.

But the yanks have evolved to believe that they can sort every problem with a strategically placed bomb.

I saw a film on Syfy the other day where they saved the world by planting a bomb in a fissure in California which prevented the pacific ring of fire from erupting and killing innocent Asian people.

So I don't believe that they will sit back and watch and earn for four years before they get involved. They will bomb the conflict until it is over without realising that they have only created a power vacuum and stoked the next war.

We are not talking about a rational thinking nation anymore.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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lulldapull
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Jim, if you talk to the adults now about the U.S. and it's worn out economic model, the overwhelming opinion is by and large that their time is up!

It's a downhill battle now buddy...........increasingly nations like Russia, China, Brazil, India, Iran etc...... are eclipsing the U.S. set up spiels and bypassing the entire system. It's all falling apart.

These failed conflicts in the Ukraine, middle east and desperate attempts at stoking others are signs of a permanent decline.

This change is irreversible mate. The U.S. economic apparatus and military is in terminal decline.

Other rapidly rising powers are waiting in the wings. The descent of the U.S won't happen overnight, but it is painfully and gradually apparent now for the last good decade.
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Jimbo
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lulldapull
19 Aug 2014, 09:55 PM
Jim, if you talk to the adults now about the U.S. and it's worn out economic model, the overwhelming opinion is by and large that their time is up!

The USA will be fine. It has God and Jesus on its side. :lol
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Bardon
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Meanwhile the US smart money continue to buy up bad loans from European banks right under the chattering classes noses. Major progress continues to be made with all European banks shedding their poor loan books and improving their balance sheets. Whilst the US buyers will no doubt be giving each other high fives when they onsell these loans later on in the cycle, they will be classed as financial genius with visionary foresight.


http://efnmail.com/story/2014-07-17/spain-oaktree-blackstone-loan-portfolio-catalunya-banc-private-equity-debt-distressed

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/record-deal-as-us-firm-snaps-up-anglos-uk-loan-book-for-42bn-30045801.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10740411/Irish-bad-bank-dumps-toxic-loan-porfolio.html
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Bardon
20 Aug 2014, 07:09 AM
Meanwhile the US smart money continue to buy up bad loans from European banks right under the chattering classes noses. Major progress continues to be made with all European banks shedding their poor loan books and improving their balance sheets. Whilst the US buyers will no doubt be giving each other high fives when they onsell these loans later on in the cycle, they will be classed as financial genius with visionary foresight.


http://efnmail.com/story/2014-07-17/spain-oaktree-blackstone-loan-portfolio-catalunya-banc-private-equity-debt-distressed

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/record-deal-as-us-firm-snaps-up-anglos-uk-loan-book-for-42bn-30045801.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10740411/Irish-bad-bank-dumps-toxic-loan-porfolio.html
So buying loans from people who cannot pay them is a good move eh ?

Meanwhile....back at the ranch......europe and most other western economies continue on with the greatest depression in living memory six years on, witj the extent of the damage only being covered up and delayed by jamming rates at zero for six years while still pumping billions in stimulus each month six years on.

The only thing increasing is the size of the money they owe for which they can NEVER repay.

These are the alternatives...... :)

Put rates at 7%, and let the economy correct itself, stop pumping stimulus. What would this mean or do. It would mean the economy would collapse along with house prices and job losses. It would be severe in the extreme, and would be exactly what would be going on now had they not of jammed rates at zero for six years and pumped trillions of stimulus in over the same period . Wages would need to correct much closer to cheap asain labour for the economy to work at all. And their quality of life would be nothing at all like it was or has been for many many decades. And this is the exact reason they do not want to let the economy correct to a realistic point , as it means an extreme decline on living standards and what they have been used to for many decades. What or where that point of correction would be is anyones guess, but the fed knows it will be far from pretty. Thats the reality there boys and girls.


The ONLY other alternative, put rates at zero , keep pumping in trillions of stimulus year after year and watch the economy die a slow death over decades and ending up with even more debt for which they can never repay. And this is the exact reason the GFC is here and surfaced in the first place. Because we had reached a point of debt exhaustion at a mum and dad level with asian labour taking our jobs at the same time, a double whammy, a debt brick wall from which we could not go much further , a point where the obvious madness had started to catch up that the fuckwits could no longer cover up with lies. And now there only answer is to take on more debt, the exact reason they are in this mess in the first place.

So we can either, rip and band aid of fast and get it over and done with and move on, or we can rip the band aid off slowly, over decades...... You decide......

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Bardon
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Guest
20 Aug 2014, 09:47 AM
So buying loans from people who cannot pay them is a good move eh ?

The property bulls bought them of the banks for a discount, they didn't buy them of the borrowers.

Whether you like it or not the European banks are making massive progress in cleaning up their balance sheets, shedding their bad loans, yes for a tax deductible loss, not long to go before they are all sorted. Super Mario has vowed to do what it takes to fix the banks, he is doing it and the rest just don't count.

As for is it a good move, yes I think the buyers of this discounted debt know very well that the new cycle has started and that these investments will pay big returns in the future, so yes I am with them there.

There is an unprecedented amount of US funds piling into Europe since it crashed, equities, debt you name it they are buying it and these are the buyers that get the real big discounts.

The US property bulls are the front end and they know what is coming, look at this land rush below for an indicator of what has already started.

http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/10154024/1/#new
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zaph
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Bardon
20 Aug 2014, 10:54 AM
The property bulls bought them of the banks for a discount, they didn't buy them of the borrowers.

Whether you like it or not the European banks are making massive progress in cleaning up their balance sheets, shedding their bad loans, yes for a tax deductible loss, not long to go before they are all sorted. Super Mario has vowed to do what it takes to fix the banks, he is doing it and the rest just don't count.

As for is it a good move, yes I think the buyers of this discounted debt know very well that the new cycle has started and that these investments will pay big returns in the future, so yes I am with them there.

There is an unprecedented amount of US funds piling into Europe since it crashed, equities, debt you name it they are buying it and these are the buyers that get the real big discounts.

The US property bulls are the front end and they know what is coming, look at this land rush below for an indicator of what has already started.

http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/10154024/1/#new
+1

There can be good money to be made in buying doubtful debt at deep discounts.
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goldbug
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Bardon
20 Aug 2014, 07:09 AM
Meanwhile the US smart money continue to buy up bad loans from European banks right under the chattering classes noses.
Wrong! Utter crap. Smart money buys Good assets, not bad loans destined to default.
No doubt the central banks are funding these purchases from behind the scenes via one of their "member" banks. It's called" Extend and Pretend" where everyone buys everyone else's debt to postpone the ultimate collapse. It's been going on for years, the US fed buys British sovereign debt and the BOE buys US treasuries. This deal is just a little further down the food chain.

You need to take of the rose colored glasses and stop hunting across the internet for bullshit.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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