------------------------------ " ... which is that all-too-familiar dynamic in Irish life where people tell lies, cover them up and create all sorts of collateral damage, sometimes spread out over decades, and never take responsibility." - Alan Glynn
They were a suckin for the little investor on a whole different scale peter. I remember back to ostrich farms and deer farms myself. I knew a dear farmer from Albany who bought a property that had been planted out with pine trees. lol, he couldn't see the similarities, spent tens of thousands on hitech fences and fed them lupins or some boutique food. I left before the inevitable but I remember him saying they were worth $1000 on the hoof. Now they're a feral pest.
A bit like property investors when you think on it. Back in 2004 it all looked rosey, big capital gains, 100% every 7 to 10 years, and YIELDS going up and up to match inflation. Everyone rushed in and then the rug was pulled out. Property prices in most capitals began to fall and stagnate and YIELDS failed to keep pace. Now instead of the property investor being the star at the cocktail party they are the ferals, the losers, the hangers on.
I hear a lot of bluster posted here but I know quite a few property investors and none of them are doing well. Some have been forced to sell at a loss and others are just making ends meet and praying they don't lose their day jobs. The ones who got in well before 2000 and actually have a decent part on the mortgage paid down aren't happy either. Agents fees, maintenance, taxes, voids. It's all grinding them down and the rents are going nowhere.
But what do you expect when people get their investment wisdoms off the television and in the back rooms of hotels
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market. What else is he wrong about?
Just in case you weren't aware there is currently no commercial production of shale gas in Australia.
I know. Not sure if the Stuart Oil program has closed down yet, but it was just a demonstration project anyway.
I posted it for those who think the US is going to be 'energy independent' some time soon. Before shale oil, the US was consuming around 18M bbpd, and producing around 6-7M bbpd. Bakken well production has already peaked and total production is only 11M bbpd, plus Canadian tar sand production of around 2M bppd, still leaves the US a long way from energy independence.
On top of which, because shale production is so construction intensive, that is, you have to keep drilling wells just to keep production rising, the heavy equipment trucks have been tearing up state and county roads, leaving them with an infrastructure bill greater than revenues from oil and gas production to repair the roads. Watch for stress in Muni bonds in North Dakota, Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
And just as shale oil and gas production are peaking, the Ukraine decides that now is the time for a change in government. Nah, just a coincidence.
------------------------------ " ... which is that all-too-familiar dynamic in Irish life where people tell lies, cover them up and create all sorts of collateral damage, sometimes spread out over decades, and never take responsibility." - Alan Glynn
I am with you on the huge infrastructure needed for shale gas, its similar to coal seam gas here and the Ukraine situation although there may be an additional Us encirclement military strategy going on there as well.
Commercial shale gas production is coming to Australia and Chevron have made a large investment into Beach Energy to this end, so it will come its just a matter of time.
I don't believe in peak production though, our technological extraction methods continue to reach further and we also find new sources of hydrocarbon such as methyl hydrates. I also believe that hydrocarbons are a renewable resource.
I am with you on the huge infrastructure needed for shale gas, its similar to coal seam gas here and the Ukraine situation although there may be an additional Us encirclement military strategy going on there as well.
Part of the containment strategy of the cold war was controlling the Soviet Union's revenues by controlling the price of oil. Hence the support of the House of Saud and the petrodollar system. But Ghawar has probably already peaked, and gas is the new oil. Iran (large gas producer) is already on the US shit list, Qatar is a vassal state, so how to control Russia without control of the the price of gas? Go after the distribution network!
Quote:
Commercial shale gas production is coming to Australia and Chevron have made a large investment into Beach Energy to this end, so it will come its just a matter of time.
Maybe. Most of the money made in shale gas in the past 12 months has been made by Wall Street in M&A activity as the industry consolidates in an attempt to get economies of scale. Unfortunately, the nature of shale gas is that there is not much economy of scale. I don't think shale gas is profitable at less than $4/mcf, but above $5/mcf you are making the evil empire rich.
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I don't believe in peak production though, our technological extraction methods continue to reach further and we also find new sources of hydrocarbon such as methyl hydrates.
Already horizontal drilling and pretty much every every other technique in Bakken. You can increase production in volume, but there is not much point if the ROEI goes negative.
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I also believe that hydrocarbons are a renewable resource.
------------------------------ " ... which is that all-too-familiar dynamic in Irish life where people tell lies, cover them up and create all sorts of collateral damage, sometimes spread out over decades, and never take responsibility." - Alan Glynn
Part of the containment strategy of the cold war was controlling the Soviet Union's revenues by controlling the price of oil. Hence the support of the House of Saud and the petrodollar system. But Ghawar has probably already peaked, and gas is the new oil. Iran (large gas producer) is already on the US shit list, Qatar is a vassal state, so how to control Russia without control of the the price of gas? Go after the distribution network!
Maybe. Most of the money made in shale gas in the past 12 months has been made by Wall Street in M&A activity as the industry consolidates in an attempt to get economies of scale. Unfortunately, the nature of shale gas is that there is not much economy of scale. I don't think shale gas is profitable at less than $4/mcf, but above $5/mcf you are making the evil empire rich.
Already horizontal drilling and pretty much every every other technique in Bakken. You can increase production in volume, but there is not much point if the ROEI goes negative.
Abiotic oil, or biofuels?
I quite often visit Qatar and have met some members of their royal family, they are pro-British and US. The Doha US airforce was a major staging post for the Gulf War. The US defence biggest overseas current peacetime budget is in Doha.
Yep, fully aware of the pipeline corridors we are currently pricing some work for the Trans Anatolian Pipeline Project and hope to get on the bid list for some Russian lines as well.
Underground Coal Gasification once it resolves its environmental issues will be huge, that will be the big one in my books.
I quite often visit Qatar and have met some members of their royal family, they are pro-British and US. The Doha US airforce was a major staging post for the Gulf War. The US defence biggest overseas current peacetime budget is in Doha.
Yep, fully aware of the pipeline corridors we are currently pricing some work for the Trans Anatolian Pipeline Project and hope to get on the bid list for some Russian lines as well.
Underground Coal Gasification once it resolves its environmental issues will be huge, that will be the big one in my books.
Abiotic.
Interesting. Are you bidding on South Stream also?
I am guessing that the Trans Anatolian will need to go through Georgia, given the ongoing conflict with Armenia.
Haven't seen any good EROI numbers for UCG. The advantage of UCG over shale is that there is a LOT more coal than shale gas, but I haven't seen any syngas conversions better than 30%, and then there is the 17-25% of carbon monoxide in the syngas. We have been producing syngas from coal above ground for a long time. Not very efficient, but easy to do, just have to take a wait and see approach on UCG. Could be good, could be another low energy, high cost bubble to make investment bankers rich like shale.
As for abiotic oil, well, I did a lot of research on that about 8 years ago, both pro and con, and came to the conclusion that it is probably a crock. Modern spectral analysis on crude oil indicates it is mostly likely Jurasic algae.
------------------------------ " ... which is that all-too-familiar dynamic in Irish life where people tell lies, cover them up and create all sorts of collateral damage, sometimes spread out over decades, and never take responsibility." - Alan Glynn
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