Why are we holding onto our houses for a lot longer? What does that mean? Are we holding on longer because they didn't double in price in a nano second, and we'll just hold till they double then sell? GFC? Employment? Pubic hair????
This is very interesting data. Many of the bears here (eg Veritas) often tell me that the systemic increase in investor purchases of property over the last decade or two would result in a "rush for the exits" someday, as investors are more likely to sell than OOs. This data would seem to suggest that the opposite may the case? Ie perhaps the average hold time is going up because there are more investors, and most of them are in it for the long term?
The rapid increase in prices since 2004 has meant that upgraders can not get the finance they need. They just do not have the wages to support the new debt.
Many people can not afford to move or get the finance to move.
Sydneyite
14 Aug 2014, 11:08 AM
This is very interesting data. Many of the bears here (eg Veritas) often tell me that the systemic increase in investor purchases of property over the last decade or two would result in a "rush for the exits" someday, as investors are more likely to sell that OOs. This data would seem to suggest that the opposite may the case? Ie perhaps the average hold time is going up because there are more investors, and most of them are in it for the long term?
Overlay investors finance numbers onto the chart and let's see?
It is. I stumbled across it while searching for something else. I'd like to see it over a longer time frame, and by city.
Quote:
Many of the bears here (eg Veritas) often tell me that the systemic increase in investor purchases of property over the last decade or two would result in a "rush for the exits" someday, as investors are more likely to sell that OOs.
I haven't seen any evidence that there has been a systemic increase in investor purchases over the last decade or two. All the data shows a fairly consistent rate of rental/OO homes. Perhaps the 'investor' profile has changed from few owning many IPs to many owning few IPs?
Quote:
This data would seem to suggest that the opposite may the case? Ie perhaps the average hold time is going up because there are more investors, and most of them are in it for the long term?
How so? Why?
Other data I've seen (sorry, no reference) indicates that most investors are really pretty crap at it and hold for only a short time.
It's interesting watching stats showing increasing numbers (or at least proportion) of investors buying yet home ownership rates are pretty stable. This leads me to think there are possibly other things happening behind the scenes which we can't see eg. Investors are purchasing off other investors (like off the plan) or homeowners are purchasing from investors. If this is the case, then this will match up with these stats which shows home owners might not be out there buying in large numbers but they are also not selling in large numbers either.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
The red line showing units hold time would probably be representative of investor hold time, since most units in the major cities are owned by investors. So it appears both investors and OOs are holding for longer. Not sure why, but you could possibly argue that the ageing population is resulting in OOs holding for longer. Maybe investors are becoming more focused on long term rental gains rather than capital gains? I do know that the bottom in 2003 coincided with a peak in investor activity and a peak in Sydney house prices.
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