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The Perth Property Crash Thread; Let us enjoy the inevitable collapse as it unfolds in WA
Topic Started: 13 Aug 2014, 12:28 AM (89,584 Views)
Terry
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skamy
10 Aug 2015, 10:56 AM
The last figure in the REIWA chart is not reliable - some property club they are- eejits

Even Perthite knows the last figure is just bunkum.
Don't be such a gloomster. The whole article is a protest of investor victimization caused by greater credit constraint. Property Club is fighting for you and the preservation of what you believe in.
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The Whole Truth
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Shadow
14 Jul 2015, 05:29 PM

Sydney had a similar decade-long decline in its price/income ratio immediately prior to the current boom kicking off in 2012.

Posted Image
Well that chart looks very similar to the gold chart over the same period but the Perth downturn is worse. By your reasoning shadow Gold is set for a big boom like Sydney.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

The Whole Truth
10 Aug 2015, 01:15 PM
Well that chart looks very similar to the gold chart over the same period but the Perth downturn is worse. By your reasoning shadow Gold is set for a big boom like Sydney.
Maybe in a few years, not that it will do you any good.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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newjez
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Alex Barton
10 Aug 2015, 10:34 AM
Posted Image


Skamy is quite right. The dip should be ironed out at least partially.
Edited by newjez, 10 Aug 2015, 01:33 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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The Whole Truth
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Shadow
10 Aug 2015, 01:29 PM
The Whole Truth
10 Aug 2015, 01:15 PM
Well that chart looks very similar to the gold chart over the same period but the Perth downturn is worse. By your reasoning shadow Gold is set for a big boom like Sydney.
Maybe in a few years, not that it will do you any good.
Why because I don't own any gold and if I did wouldn't be prepared to sit on it for 20 years until I retired? I'm not a gambler like you, I didn't leverage my ppor to speculate on city real estate. I paid my home off and am hunkered down financially for what I see as a repeat of the 1930's. For the last 7 years that strategy has proved very fruitful. I made money on the gfc, my last gamble, and am now sitting back with a big box of popcorn to watch the end of the debt supercycle.

I know people who leveraged their homes to by re and businesses, and they did quite well. But that was last century shadow, back when the global economy was still growing on cheap oil. You're trying to follow in their footsteps and think nothing can go wrong. But even they back then had a healthy respect for the dangers of debt. You will lose it all. I am quite confident of that. The next leg down, the next GFC will be the tombstone for all the over leveraged speculators.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Shadow
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The Whole Truth
13 Aug 2015, 09:06 AM
You will lose it all. I am quite confident of that. The next leg down, the next GFC will be the tombstone for all the over leveraged speculators.
LOL, so now it's the 'next GFC' that's going to wipe me out. I think that one is already on the list...

Things silly bears thought would cause a property crash, but didn't

00 - Interest rates will rise
01 - Banks won't pass on interest rate cuts
02 - Banks will tighten credit
03 - Unemployment will rise
04 - US subprime will spread to Australia
05 - GFC
06 - AUD will fall
07 - AUD will rise
08 - Peak oil
09 - Money supply will crash
10 - Housing stock levels will go up
11 - Auction clearance rate will drop
12 - Immigration will be cut
13 - Shortage myth will be revealed
14 - Iceland volcano
15 - GFC II
16 - Iranian oil bourse
17 - Baby boomers will all sell on the same day
18 - Land tax will be introduced
19 - Hyper inflation
20 - Deflation
21 - Stagflation
22 - Greek default
23 - Spanish default
24 - (insert European country) default
25 - Israel will nuke Iran
26 - Climate change
27 - Bird Flu
28 - Mad Cow disease
29 - European sovereign debt buy up
30 - Iron ore price falling
31 - Government will stop bailing out housing sector
32 - End of Mining Boom
33 - Capital Gains Tax
34 - End of Negative Gearing
35 - Banks will make mass illegal margin calls on housing loans
36 - North Korea Missile Crisis
37 - Irrational Exuberance
38 - US Fiscal Cliff / default
39 - Negative feedback loop
40 - Reach some kind of tipping point
41 - SMSF will reduce tax concessions
42 - Slight variation on value will cause panic selling among investors
43 - The Taper
44 - Removal of FHB grants in NSW, VIC and QLD
45 - First Home Buyer Strike
46 - Abolition of the First Home Saver Account
47 - Ponzi scheme will 'collapse under its own weight'
48 - Renters will go on strike
49 - Wulfie's kiss of death
50 - Chinese shadow banks
51 - Ebola outbreak
52 - Prolonged period of low interest rates encouraging marginal buyers
53 - Housing construction boom slows
54 - Government enforces law against foreign purchases and Chinese depart the market
55 - APRA will enforce macroprudential regulations
Edited by Shadow, 13 Aug 2015, 09:50 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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The Whole Truth
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Did you make that list yourself? Fuck you must be terrified to bother researching all that shit. I just buy depreciated assets that have obvious potential and forget about them for a decade or 2 as they go up. I have never bought into the top of a bubble like you, certainly have your work cut out.

Don't forget the sell rule!
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

The Whole Truth
14 Aug 2015, 09:36 AM
I just buy depreciated assets that have obvious potential and forget about them for a decade or 2 as they go up. I have never bought into the top of a bubble
When you posted as FrankRider and Goldbug, you told us you were buying gold in in 2011 and 2012 when it was between $1500 and $1800. At that time, you told us gold was going to the moon. And then it crashed. So you did buy at the top of the bubble, and now prices are lower then when you bought. No wonder you ditched those socks.

But yeah, if you keep holding for another couple of decades then you might get to die with your shoebox being worth a bit more than it is today. That will be a massive win. You've just confirmed what I always said... goldbugs never sell. They die with their little hoard still intact, it having provided them with zero income and zero benefit during their lives.
Edited by Shadow, 14 Aug 2015, 09:53 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Matthew
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The Whole Truth
14 Aug 2015, 09:36 AM
Did you make that list yourself? Fuck you must be terrified to bother researching all that shit. I just buy depreciated assets that have obvious potential and forget about them for a decade or 2 as they go up. I have never bought into the top of a bubble like you, certainly have your work cut out.

Don't forget the sell rule!
So you buy old cars and let them rust on the front lawn of your bogan rental palace waiting for scrap prices to rise? Got it.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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The Whole Truth
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Shadow
14 Aug 2015, 09:50 AM
Blah blah blah
you're waffling again old man.
Matthew
14 Aug 2015, 10:25 AM
Off topic nonsense as usual
Perth is only going one way mattie, in the direction of your retirement wealth. Down Down Down.

Quote:
 

Property Council of Australia executive director Joe Lenzo said the inner-city office vacancy rate was now about 16 per cent and would be about 20 per cent by year's end.

"Right now it's a tenant's market, no question about it," Mr Lenzo said.

"It's not going to get any better any time soon."

http://www.afr.com/real-estate/perth-property-market-feels-just-like-a-recession-20150626-ghywoi

commercial is always the canary in the mining state.
No work = no pay = falling property prices

Quote:
 

Residential rents are also falling. Perth residential vacancy rates have risen to 4.9 per cent, according to the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia (REIWA), just three years after an emerging rental crisis occurred in Perth where vacancy rates dipped below 0.7 per cent.

The number of houses, units and blocks of land for sale in metropolitan Perth has now surpassed 14,000.

Craig Kelson, of Kelson Real Estate in Carlisle, south of Perth, said many sellers were pricing their $500,000 to $600,000 homes about 5 per cent too high.

"You have to price a home spot on or people won't even turn up to the home open," Mr Kelson said.


People aren't even turning up to open houses anymore. Love it :lol
Edited by The Whole Truth, 19 Aug 2015, 01:19 AM.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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