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The Perth Property Crash Thread; Let us enjoy the inevitable collapse as it unfolds in WA
Topic Started: 13 Aug 2014, 12:28 AM (89,599 Views)
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Perth is headed for a prolonged slump: Simon Pressley
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Perthite
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https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/26472724/perth-house-prices-fell-2-3pc-in-feb/

down 2.9% in 2015 so far.
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Trollie
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Perthite
2 Mar 2015, 02:28 PM
you will watch it all the way down i'm sure, like a cat watching a laser pointer.
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newjez
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Perthite
2 Mar 2015, 02:28 PM
To be fair I think that has been happening over the past twelve months. I don't think it's a sudden slump. It's just the index catching up. I think I pointed out the likely hood of this back in December. Sometimes rp data can lag quite badly.
Alex Barton
2 Mar 2015, 12:44 PM
I would be interested in peter frazers response to this. For some time he has accepted the headwinds of Perth but been critical that there has been no corresponding falls. I say it is just a timing issue. The pressure is mounting, and we are starting to see that effect. But how will it manifest? Crash or dead of a thousands cuts?
Edited by newjez, 2 Mar 2015, 03:34 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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dave
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newjez
2 Mar 2015, 03:30 PM
To be fair I think that has been happening over the past twelve months. I don't think it's a sudden slump. It's just the index catching up. I think I pointed out the likely hood of this back in December. Sometimes rp data can lag quite badly.
lag quite badly... sometimes we can can get away with fudging the numbers, other times, like now, when there are for lease/sale signs everywhere, we can't.
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Jimbo
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newjez
2 Mar 2015, 03:30 PM
To be fair I think that has been happening over the past twelve months. I don't think it's a sudden slump. It's just the index catching up. I think I pointed out the likely hood of this back in December. Sometimes rp data can lag quite badly.

I would be interested in peter frazers response to this. For some time he has accepted the headwinds of Perth but been critical that there has been no corresponding falls. I say it is just a timing issue. The pressure is mounting, and we are starting to see that effect. But how will it manifest? Crash or dead of a thousands cuts?
There is a definite lag. RP get their WA info from Landgate who only get involved at the completion stage. The actual selling price is decided at the offer and acceptance stage which is typically six to eight weeks before completion.

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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doubleview
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Lets just call it 4 what it is:

Big trouble in the most remote City on the planet!

Or the politically non corect one...big trouble in the desert shit hole in never never!

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Blondie girl
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14 Jan 2015, 10:22 PM
Over the past 5 years or so, I personally know of around 16 FHB’s in Perth that have taken what ever government-developer grants they can get their hands on, then buy it, live in it for 3 months to qualify for the grants (or what have you).

These FHB’s then become “investment” buyers when they rent it out, (after the required 3 months of living in it) move back home to live with mum and dad and reap the rewards of negative gearing (especially on new homes that have higher rates of depreciation)

Sometime thereafter depending on bank rates moving between various lenders, they re-finance their home to a new lender at a better rate and as an “Investment loan” to ensure they scoop up the interest payments as tax deductions for Negative Gearing.

So they gain the double whammy effect:
1. They get the FHB grants from the government-Developer (AKA tax payer)
2. They get the tax write offs from the government (AKA tax payer) via NG.

Plus they also get a home cooked meal every night and mum still does their washing and Dad does the BBQ on the weekends. Sweet deal huh?
Are you jealous!!!


What a brilliant idea... ... Oh hang on "it's not fair"...

Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Alex Barton
2 Mar 2015, 12:44 PM
I sold out 2 years ago.

Peter

So many empty properties.


Sales volumes peaked two years ago and the numbers since have steadily declined. REIWA has reported the latest vacancy rate for Greater Perth at 4.2%, making it easily the highest of all Australian capital cities. Put simply, neither property values nor rents have any pressure currently being applied
Edited by Foxy, 3 Mar 2015, 12:20 AM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Blondie girl
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15 Jan 2015, 10:01 PM
My anecdotal findings in Western Australia is that its getting harder to find work in general. I think a lot of people are a little dazed at the moment as to why they cant find a job and are relying on partners/savings/credit to pull them through for now.

I’m surprised participation rate increased, jobs increased but was also able to lower unemployment? Sounds like major number wang to me. Double positive and way over the top.

All I can say is that the eastern states must be having a major boom currently because there’s only been job loses in WA.

I’m familiar with a rather large recruitment company that specifically fills jobs for the mining sector and well they are having a terrible year or so that predates commodity crash.

And they are in bed with many big mining companies. There just aren’t as many jobs to be filled and its weighing on their group heavily now.

Maybe jobs haven’t been lost but it’s not expanding. And further more indirect jobs are tanking.

I list another company, owned by relatives who own a big machinery and construction company in northwest. They are hitting the rails hard. They haven’t fired anyone but several hundred staff aren’t returning to work. Only the needy and loyal remain.

And they use to buy a lot of equipment and construction items from perth. Another friend a carpenter has lost a lot of business in the northwest from the decline in my relatives business.

The only thing that remains are government construction and abundant apartments / housing which has oddly boomed all over Perth metro area. When that ends its going to hit hard here.

Received quotes to redo a large driveway at our warehouse south of Perth. About 1600m2.

3 out of the 4 people quoting would slash the price considerably if they could start work immediately (next week) as they simply have no other work currently.

This is very strange conditions compared to 2010 when we would have to beg to get work down or splash cash to retain workers for more than a month.

FMG is doing rather large cuts to their food service ( the industry I’m involved in).

They are calling for 10%-20% cuts from suppliers and are due to sack majority of food prep personal in the northwest and are opting for processed food from just about anywhere in Australia.

Basically they will be buying cheaper foods and sacking high priced on site cooks etc. It’s just that desperate for FMG.

Jobs and wages are being slashed everywhere.

Let the good times roll.
Really spends on the qualifications on what's demanded ... You may know of your experiences within your family associations in the NorthWest, depends on who one is associated with ... Things are not total crap for some.
Veritas
15 Jan 2015, 02:46 AM
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No not everything is positive but at least there's people who don't sit on their arses hoping for a crash......

I think you've been waiting for many many yrs, it's not just recent few yrs....
Doesn't matter just eep paying that rent..same as your chum bum Perthite.
doubleview
2 Mar 2015, 07:58 PM
Lets just call it 4 what it is:

Big trouble in the most remote City on the planet!

Or the politically non corect one...big trouble in the desert shit hole in never never!

Better stay in your QLD & don't come back to Perth

There there....

The anal boring usual number crunchers can do whatever but the fact remains.. People with highly demanded props will always do well.
Lmao.

At least there's no chance of any bogan beach paradises that a certain forums bogan boomer sold off and think they're hot poo poo......
:lol :lol

Whoever fears the flatness of prices shouldn't be investing.

Simpe as that.
Edited by Blondie girl, 3 Mar 2015, 12:40 AM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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