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The Perth Property Crash Thread; Let us enjoy the inevitable collapse as it unfolds in WA
Topic Started: 13 Aug 2014, 12:28 AM (89,605 Views)
SittingOnDeFence
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lulldapull
23 Nov 2014, 06:40 PM
Skammy, do you actually work? because your responses are disconnected from reality.

And I mean big watermelon time! :lol
This might be known to a lot of people already, but if you google Skamy's signature definition of the doom-gloomer, it's a quote "From Bust to Boom In the 1990s" by
Norman P. Poire back in the 90s

Quote:
 
Most economic forecasts fall into one of three camps: myopic, obsessive, or doom- and-gloom. The myopics are the majority of investors who project the most recent economic trend into the future. Their motto is "more of the same". Right now the myopics are calling for slow steady growth as far as the eye can see. As we approach a market top, this group will begin declaring a new era for stocks, inventing a variety of reasons why the old standards of measure no longer apply.....

In the second camp are the obsessives. Their slogan is "never say die". These people are preoccupied with the last economic calamity - they constantly fight yesterday's battle. Their bogeyman right now is inflation and, believing as they do that Bill Clinton is a Jimmy Carter clone, are stockpiling gold and silver in anticipation of hyperinflation.


What all of these forecasts have in common is that they are made through the lens of a microscope. Ignoring the longer view, these forecasts are often an extrapolation of some period of recent history into the future. The obsessives are betting on an inflation trend that began in the late 1960s. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data. Their pessimism is bolstered by researchers who have noticed parallels between the Great Depression of the 1930s and the current period and others who like to compare the U.S. to debt-ridden Third World countries. The myopics are the least complicated of the three, formulating their forecast from a moving average of the previous six months or so of economic performance




Then there's skamy's signature - followed by this gem:


Quote:
 
......The doom-and-gloomers are partly right. My research indicates that the U.S. economy has been in a depression since 1990 that will reach its low point in late 1994. But the magnitude of the slowdown will not approach that experienced during the Great Depression.



Is skamy a myopic?
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skamy
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John Frum
23 Nov 2014, 07:38 PM
Maybe if property prices weren't through the roof she wouldn't need to be a whore.
Sometimes you are slow Miles
SittingOnDeFence
23 Nov 2014, 09:18 PM
This might be known to a lot of people already, but if you google Skamy's signature definition of the doom-gloomer, it's a quote "From Bust to Boom In the 1990s" by
Norman P. Poire back in the 90s





Then there's skamy's signature - followed by this gem:






Is skamy a myopic?
What is wrong with ya? of course there was some reason for doom and gloom in the 1990s - I was merely pointing out the wild claims of the doomsters on debt etc back then - they were so far of the mark it was not funny. The doomsters of today are just rehashing the same old tales of woe people have been listening to for decades.
Edited by skamy, 24 Nov 2014, 04:30 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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lulldapull
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SittingOnDeFence
23 Nov 2014, 09:18 PM
This might be known to a lot of people already, but if you google Skamy's signature definition of the doom-gloomer, it's a quote "From Bust to Boom In the 1990s" by
Norman P. Poire back in the 90s





Then there's skamy's signature - followed by this gem:






Is skamy a myopic?
Yeah, you ain't kidding. There are many here who are just not employed, and are shysters.

It's evident from their rhetoric and the nonsense reverie. :D

Timmy the unemployed surveyor topped that list.
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John Frum
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skamy
24 Nov 2014, 04:26 PM
Sometimes you are slow Miles
Er, it was a joke. I'll arrange to have a flashing neon sign pointing to the next one so you can spot it.

BTW I don't know to which Miles you're referring skamy, but if it's the famous black jazz musician I'm very flattered.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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Drgonzo
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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-24/mining-investment-to-fall-bis-shrapnel-report/5912556

Fall in Australian mining investment to be biggest on record, says economic forecaster

BY NIKKI ROBERTS

Economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel expects a fall in Australian mining investment to be the biggest on record.

BIS Shrapnel has released the findings of its Mining in Australia 2014-2029 report which points to a 40 per cent collapse in investment in the sector over four years.

"Already we're seeing a substantial slump take place in iron ore and coal investment around the country but now with the LNG investment boom about to end we're about to see the biggest slump ever in mining investment," spokesman Adrian Hart said.

He said the current slump had barely begun.

"If anything we see investment continuing to fall right through to about 2017 before stabilising," he said.

But despite this, the mining sector overall is still expected to grow by about 33 per cent in the next five years, as a result of of a recent investment boom which peaked at $93 billion last financial year.

Mr Hart said the growth would be in absolute terms as well as in its share of the national economy.

"The value of mining production in Western Australia will exceed that of the Australian manufacturing industry over 2014/15, which is a staggering statistic and probably points to the problems we have in manufacturing in Australia... as it does to the success that we have with mining production," he said.

But Mr Hart said the benefits of the production boom are limited.

"The issue for the Australian economy is that the production phase of the mining boom is much less employment intensive than the construction phase," he said.

"As a consequence it's certainly not the biggest economic bang for the buck, like the construction phase has been."

It's ok though, because we can have a long term sustainable economy built around the real estate industry and rising house prices if some here are to believed.
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Perthite
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Tis but a flesh wound.
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TheTruth
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Where would that put investment in historical terms?
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doubleview
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Big die off of late!

That is............. all the Perth Bull trolls on here who acted like they where in vegas on a hot streak and they cant lose!
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Perthite
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TheTruth
24 Nov 2014, 08:17 PM
Where would that put investment in historical terms?
Well above the historical average.

It would have to fall around 60% to reach that.

With prices in the toilet I very much doubt that to stay above average.

It is a sickening prospect indeed.
Edited by Perthite, 24 Nov 2014, 09:21 PM.
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newjez
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doubleview
24 Nov 2014, 09:08 PM
Big die off of late!

That is............. all the Perth Bull trolls on here who acted like they where in vegas on a hot streak and they cant lose!
They are very busy. Do you know how much effort it takes to sell houses in this climate?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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