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The Perth Property Crash Thread; Let us enjoy the inevitable collapse as it unfolds in WA
Topic Started: 13 Aug 2014, 12:28 AM (89,612 Views)
KaiserSauzee
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TheTruth
9 Nov 2014, 12:12 PM
All you did was prove me right.

all major cities boomed in the early to mid 2000's, then had a minor drop off with the GFC but no crash.

So i'll ask you again very clearly - If a major down turn in mining is going to wipe out Perth, why hasn't Adelaide been wiped out?

There are a lot of parallels there you can't deny. A quick search through the forum shows a lot of posts from the time OD was canned doing it.
The reason I think Perth is different to Adelaide is that the mining boom attracted a lot of overseas/interstate labour which is now starting to flood out of the state, which will affect the local economy with less spending and of course push house vacancies up

I'm not sure that Adelaide ever had the same mass movement of people in and out that Perth did?

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lulldapull
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Had the bhp billiton Roxby downs project materialized in SA, Adelaide would have had a tremendous property boost like Perth did with property or what not. Thousands of workers would have moved there for resident and FIFO jobs.

Fuck all happened, and bhp killed it off finally in 2012. That was also the trigger for overall mining contraction back in July 2012!

Mining hasn't recovered since then and it has been downhill ever since.
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TheTruth
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KaiserSauzee
9 Nov 2014, 01:57 PM
The reason I think Perth is different to Adelaide is that the mining boom attracted a lot of overseas/interstate labour which is now starting to flood out of the state,
This is incorrect.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0

WA's population is still the fastest growing in Australia.
lulldapull
9 Nov 2014, 02:09 PM
Had the bhp billiton Roxby downs project materialized in SA, Adelaide would have had a tremendous property boost like Perth did with property or what not. Thousands of workers would have moved there for resident and FIFO jobs.

Fuck all happened, and bhp killed it off finally in 2012. That was also the trigger for overall mining contraction back in July 2012!

Mining hasn't recovered since then and it has been downhill ever since.
This brings us back to the point about house prices. If house prices are inflated due to the mining boom, why hasn't Adelaide been the canary in the coal mine?

Same deal with Brisbane and the coal mines.
Edited by TheTruth, 9 Nov 2014, 02:55 PM.
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lulldapull
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"Truth"........... be told..........Adelaide property is as an average......apples to apples, at least 20% to 30% lower than Perth or Brisi, the two towns which saw a massive uptick in property prices due to the mining boom.

Adelaide only saw modest growth during the mining boom. Had Roxby Downs/ Olympic dam happened, it would have been a different story.

And yes outside of a few better parts of Adelaide, everything else is in decline.

And we don't understand why are you getting a hard on already? there's still a full year to go before the car industry fucks off. Wait and see what happens to Adelaide or SA as a whole when ship building and car industry get gutted. It won't be pretty. ;)

P.S. Jobs in Adelaide pay fuck all!..........FYI.
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Jimbo
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TheTruth
9 Nov 2014, 12:12 PM
So i'll ask you again very clearly - If a major down turn in mining is going to wipe out Perth, why hasn't Adelaide been wiped out?

I will repeat.

Adelaide median 430k, Perth median 545k

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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doubleview
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I'm starting to think that ''the truth'' may be ''pig iron'' a.k.a ''Timmy''!
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KaiserSauzee
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I am not sure then what the dynamics are with it, as I don't really know too much about adelaide

I am guessing that Adelaide never had the influx and outflux of people on big wages that Perth has had

No matter what is causing it, the simple facts are that house prices are on the way down

The house I used as an example has dropped $75k in a matter of months

I have no doubt that if someone offered $25k less at this time the owner would have to seriously consider accepting

So, in less than 8 months, a standard 4x2 in a decent area could well have seen $100k slashed off the price
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newjez
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Petes
9 Nov 2014, 11:36 AM
I really really never understand australia.

So I've been working 7 years now.

I never bought a house

Instead I put all my savings into managed funds with 80% in high growth and 20% in core. With a 50% 50 split on international v australian.

So far ive made back almost 15% yoy

I have 750k... 750 fkn K

And I'm not 30.

I'm on 90k a year now. I was putting away 40-50k a year.

I mean. Why would ANYONE buy property in Australia. Let alone Perth!

I'll be a millionaire by the time I'm 32.

And that's clear. Not 'I have a million in loans and property' BS

I see Perth rents falling vacancy rising heaps of people losing jobs house and unit prics falling 20-30% and I think fk that... a negative yielding property and negative capital growth.

Perth is such a stupid investment only morons think it's good. Why would anyone want to buy a place that 'breaks even' lol or 'just pays for itself'

I mean seriously 750k. I can buy a house outright. I don't even need to work anymore.

I'm in the process of moving to 75% international 25% australian because I believe without government intervention and stimulus australia has had its run. It's peaked right off. I'm moving to Asian investment :D

I'd suggest you all do the same.

Anyhow just my 2 cents to anyone who thinks perth property is the way to riches. Lol
Well done. You certainly picked the right strategy so far. I also think you are right to change. But I'm not 100% sure your changes are right. It's pretty hard to beat the law of averages. You may be coming to the moment where you want to think about being careful and diversifying. Don't set yourself a target for doing this such as a million. Judge each day as it comes.
doubleview
9 Nov 2014, 04:26 PM
I'm starting to think that ''the truth'' may be ''pig iron'' a.k.a ''Timmy''!
Might explain why he has nothing to say. He seems to avoid mining with a barge pole. Should we mention iron ore and see if he cries?
Edited by newjez, 9 Nov 2014, 07:13 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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lulldapull
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boy, if he's timmy, I'm a bust him up right in his fun-hole........... :mad:

Som bitch needs to get fucked by me publicly for being proven dead wrong, on just about everything! :mad:
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doubleview
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lulldapull
9 Nov 2014, 08:31 PM
boy, if he's timmy, I'm a bust him up right in his fun-hole........... :mad:

Som bitch needs to get fucked by me publicly for being proven dead wrong, on just about everything! :mad:
haha, he trolled u the most so yes u have first dibs!
newjez
9 Nov 2014, 07:10 PM
Might explain why he has nothing to say. He seems to avoid mining with a barge pole. Should we mention iron ore and see if he cries?
Looks like it's prob him whole persona has changed this week end !

Hid it well for a few weeks!
Edited by doubleview, 9 Nov 2014, 08:37 PM.
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