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The Perth Property Crash Thread; Let us enjoy the inevitable collapse as it unfolds in WA
Topic Started: 13 Aug 2014, 12:28 AM (89,617 Views)
lulldapull
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It'll get a lot worse next year herbie.

Mining and this CSG gimmick are both in serious trouble, and there ain't no way out.

Prices of commodities and energy are now lower than back in the GFC. The economy has become a joke.

Skammy the grandma, and this blondie don't work (have real jobs), so are clueless about the gravity of the current economic situation.

To be honest, we're headed toward a type of situation like in the U.S. or Japan. Lotsa fuckin $20/ hr jobs in service, fast food and retail. That's our shitty future.
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TheTruth
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lulldapull
5 Nov 2014, 11:01 PM
Prices of commodities and energy are now lower than back in the GFC. The economy has become a joke.
The truth is commodities are still higher priced than the GFC.

Posted Image

Nickel, Iron Ore, Gold,Tin,LNG, Aluminium... all still higher priced than the GFC.
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Elastic
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Well that may be the truth but while a sinking boat remains above the water level it is technically still floating.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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TheTruth
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Elastic
5 Nov 2014, 11:14 PM
Well that may be the truth but while a sinking boat remains above the water level it is technically still floating.
By making statements which are untrue like Lulldapull has done, you will fail to see what's really happening and take advantage of it.
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herbie
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TheTruth
5 Nov 2014, 11:09 PM
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I know squat about trading squat - But if I did, reckon I'd be starting ta think "head and shoulders" in a couple of/few years and look out below??? (But maybe some more QE can just make it 'all better'? ... :) )
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Veritas
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skamy
5 Nov 2014, 08:24 PM
It is greedy IMHO to expect too much. I think that this kind of speculative greed, whether it is buying too much property to make money or waiting too long to get a bargain, does not serve the speculator well.

You are speculating that Perth will undergo price falls, the risk you run is that the market moves in the same way as Sydney and Melbourne.

No-one could deny that todays market in Perth is already deflated, most homes are not back to 2007 prices and some are very much lower.

You are just a property speculator Veritas.
Yes, I am a property speculator.

I am not in a hurry to buy because I think by waiting I will get a better deal for my hard earned cash.

Similarly, I saw a really nice suit in Myer the other day. I think If I wait until the Christmas sales I might get it for less so I have elected to defer purchasing the suit.

If the suit has sold out by Christmas, I lose out. If not, I get the suit.

In this way, I am behaving like consumers all over the world. Every single day.

There is precisely no difference when it comes to property.

To argue otherwise is illogical nonsense.

Greed does not come into it.

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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newjez
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TheTruth
5 Nov 2014, 11:09 PM
The truth is commodities are still higher priced than the GFC.

Posted Image

Nickel, Iron Ore, Gold,Tin,LNG, Aluminium... all still higher priced than the GFC.
I think that graph would look very different if you factored inflation in.
Veritas
6 Nov 2014, 01:59 AM
Yes, I am a property speculator.

I am not in a hurry to buy because I think by waiting I will get a better deal for my hard earned cash.

Similarly, I saw a really nice suit in Myer the other day. I think If I wait until the Christmas sales I might get it for less so I have elected to defer purchasing the suit.

If the suit has sold out by Christmas, I lose out. If not, I get the suit.

In this way, I am behaving like consumers all over the world. Every single day.

There is precisely no difference when it comes to property.

To argue otherwise is illogical nonsense.

Greed does not come into it.
I only buy coffee every three months. I pay half price or better.
Edited by newjez, 6 Nov 2014, 07:00 AM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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John Frum
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b_b
5 Nov 2014, 09:07 PM
Only one of those "debt ridden" countries issues its own currency (like Australia). Japan. Does not look that bad to me.
Good pickup on the currency there. So I guess you could then infer that Japan was in a better position to leverage off its falling currency post-bubble, as its manufacturing base wasn't completely hollowed out by a once-in-a-lifetime commodity boom.

So as a result it only took around 20 years to recover. :lol
Edited by John Frum, 6 Nov 2014, 07:52 AM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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skamy
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Veritas
6 Nov 2014, 01:59 AM
Yes, I am a property speculator.

I am not in a hurry to buy because I think by waiting I will get a better deal for my hard earned cash.

Similarly, I saw a really nice suit in Myer the other day. I think If I wait until the Christmas sales I might get it for less so I have elected to defer purchasing the suit.

If the suit has sold out by Christmas, I lose out. If not, I get the suit.

In this way, I am behaving like consumers all over the world. Every single day.

There is precisely no difference when it comes to property.

To argue otherwise is illogical nonsense.

Greed does not come into it.
The difference being that it is quite logical to speculate on the price of a suit being reduced after Christmas. All you lose is a nice new suit to wear at Christmas time.

Whereas it is rather a long odds gamble to speculate on a house price drop.

Plus, you are paying to speculate on a house price drop as you have to pay rent as you wait.

Plus, house prices do not get reduced regularly.

Plus, there is not so much risk that a suit will rise in price but house prices in a growing city rise most of the time.

Everyone speculates to some degree when they buy a home, but those who speculate towards the end of a cycle run the highest risks of all.

Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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newjez
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skamy
6 Nov 2014, 09:58 AM
The difference being that it is quite logical to speculate on the price of a suit being reduced after Christmas. All you lose is a nice new suit to wear at Christmas time.

Whereas it is rather a long odds gamble to speculate on a house price drop.

Plus, you are paying to speculate on a house price drop as you have to pay rent as you wait.

Plus, house prices do not get reduced regularly.

Plus, there is not so much risk that a suit will rise in price but house prices in a growing city rise most of the time.

Everyone speculates to some degree when they buy a home, but those who speculate towards the end of a cycle run the highest risks of all.
What part of property speculator don't you understand?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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