Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
The Perth Property Crash Thread; Let us enjoy the inevitable collapse as it unfolds in WA
Topic Started: 13 Aug 2014, 12:28 AM (89,621 Views)
Jimbo
Member Avatar


Gone very quiet on here now that the stats and sentiment stack up to a Perth bear market.

Just saying...........
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


Jimbo
16 Oct 2014, 12:20 AM
Gone very quiet on here now that the stats and sentiment stack up to a Perth bear market.

Just saying...........
The East Coast Bulls ( Shadberg, Trojan et al) haven't touched a WA thread in months.

Speaks volumes.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Veritas
6 Sep 2014, 07:34 PM


Why do you insist on being obtuse?

I already posted links to the Swedish banking bailout. If you paid attention to these things ( and you clearly don't) you would know that the rescue of the Swedish financial system after the collapse of its property bubble became a template for financial system crash resolutions often referred to after the GFC.

Here, educate yourself: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/23/business/worldbusiness/23krona.html?_r=0

As for the rest of you post, lets just say you are profoundly stupid and leave it at that.

Others have tried on the WA threads but they are wasting their time. Your'e clearly something of a retard.
Gosh Veritas so much abuse and I am only telling you facts - house prices in Sweden did not crash in fact they have behaved in a similar fashion to those of Australia.

Posted Image



You post some 2008 article about a banking bailout and think thats gonna cut the mustard to cover your mistaken belief that house prices crashed.


Posted Image


Maybe you just mixed it up with Denmark.
Elastic
15 Oct 2014, 03:06 PM
So Skamy leaves Perth for a holiday and the property market sentiment collapses.
It couldn't cope with the loss of so much positive sentiment all at once.
:dry:


It will all be OK even with all the big headlines they are still predicting growth for house prices - no crash here for the Perth bears.

Edited by skamy, 16 Oct 2014, 02:21 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
newjez
Member Avatar


Jimbo
16 Oct 2014, 12:20 AM
Gone very quiet on here now that the stats and sentiment stack up to a Perth bear market.

Just saying...........
Actually, the figures don't look terrible. I'd call it flat. It doesn't really look like its falling yet... Lots of negatives, but they don't seem to have bitten yet.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


skamy
16 Oct 2014, 02:04 AM
Gosh Veritas so much abuse and I am only telling you facts - house prices in Sweden did not crash in fact they have behaved in a similar fashion to those of Australia.

Posted Image



You post some 2008 article about a banking bailout and think thats gonna cut the mustard to cover your mistaken belief that house prices crashed.


Posted Image


Maybe you just mixed it up with Denmark.

:dry:


It will all be OK even with all the big headlines they are still predicting growth for house prices - no crash here for the Perth bears.
Okay genius.

Please explain why you think the Swedish banking bailout happened?

What caused it.

Happy for you to post links.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

Quote:
 
Negative sentiment in Western Australia continues: ANZ/Property Council Survey

Jennifer Duke | 16 October 2014

The ANZ/Property Council Survey index for Western Australia has seen a softening in property business sector confidence to 115 from 123 over the latest quarter.

Down 19 points over the last 12 months, it is in stark contrast to the increasingly positive sentiment nationally, up to 135 from 131 over the same period.

Property Council of Australia executive director Joe Lenzo said that the dip is in line with recent consumer surveys that have also seen declines.

“The Western Australian property sector is still adjusting after record high levels of business confidence within the last two years, when the resources sector was at peak performance along with population growth,” said Lenzo.

The outlook for retail and industrial property however, is steady.

“These results show that now is not the time for government to pull back on its infrastructure and budget commitments” said Lenzo.

A number of factors may be behind the softening sentiment.

These include:

Increases in property taxes

Uncertainty in the provisioning of vital infrastructure

Lack of clear vision for continuing the growth of the state

However, positives may be coming in the shape of the sale of underutilised land assets and further planning reforms, he said.

“The worrying decline in business confidence in the property sector highlights the importance of fast tracking government land sales to enable the private sector to step in and grow the State through property investment and development," Lenzo claimed.

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/finding/location/wa/36825-negative-sentiment-in-western-australia-continues-anz-property-council-survey.html
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
Member Avatar


“These results show that now is not the time for government to pull back on its infrastructure and budget commitments” said Lenzo.

They will have no choice. There is no next round infrastructure projects or mega projects.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

Quote:
 
Seven signs a Perth market downturn is nigh: David Airey

Jennifer Duke | 2 November 2014

The Real Estate Institute of Western Australia’s (REIWA) latest figures have Perth’s median house price lifting 1% over the September quarter to $548,000.

However, REIWA’s president David Airey warns a downturn should be expected in 2015.

While the median price is up by a small amount, sales turnover is now at its lowest level in two years, with listings for sale trending upwards fast while rents fall. This spells bad things for property owners over the next year, says Airey.

Here are the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia's signs a downturn is coming:

Turnover for Perth houses sits 12% below average.

There were 10,250 listings in the September quarter.

House price growth is currently moderating – up only 1% over the September quarter.

Average days on market up by two days, to 59.

Number of vendors dropping their asking prices increased from 48% to 51% (with an average price reduction of 5.3%).

The rental market’s number of properties for lease did soften (now at 5,711), however this is almost 50% up on September 2013. The vacancy rate is at 4% and it takes owners an average of 33 days to find a tenant.

Rents have softened across Perth – house rents are down $10 to a median of $450 per week. Apartments, units and villas dropped by $15 to a median of $430 per week. This is down 4.3% on last year.

There is some good news. Airey points to turnover for units, apartments and villas up 7%, despite early Landgate data pointing to a 3.3% fall in median price to $435,000. Regional areas also bucked the downturning Perth trend, with turnover unchanged over the quarter.

First home buyers may be making a small resurgence, with an increase in turnover in the price sectors below the median price – a typical first home buyer activity spot. The Office of State Revenue noted that as of September, the median first home buyer purchase is now at $432,00 compared to $456,500 in July.

“This is good news for first home buyers on one hand, but it also shows they are becoming harder to find in the established home market,” Airey said.

Across the city, investors need to be astute and look for signs of change ahead, said Airey.

“The extent to which the low level of sales, increase in listings, soft rental market and low consumer sentiment might influence the housing system in the longer term may become apparent in the December quarter,” he said.

“Perth’s equilibrium for listings in a balanced market is around 12,000 and indications are that we will clearly surpass this in 2015 which will add to selling days and put downwards pressure on price.”

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/finding/location/wa/37388-seven-signs-a-perth-market-downturn-is-nigh-david-airey.html
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Blondie girl
Member Avatar


Arrgghhhhhh

Bring it on, I'm certainly not in pain with softy rents ATM.

toughen up Airey fairy says.

Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
igrisil
Unregistered

Doesn't take a genius to work out the spike was because the stamp duty threshold was chaneed. Just like when the FHOG were pulled back.

Also doesn't take a genius to look up what happens when sales collapse. Prices follow.

I like how the article has a nice spin on it even though it's a signal perth markets are about to experiencing a double whammy.

Pull back of stamp duty exemptions. Watch all those 500k houses magically fall to 430k I saw so many vendors push so hard 4 week's before with homes at 499k just flogging everything off. Now those same units are going for 429k lol talk about losing 15% for such a minor thing... then couple that with the sales volume collapse. Last time it happened prices fell/stagnated 15%-5 years

More important now than ever to avoid WAs market unless your experienced and have the capital to back it up.

I feel bad for anyone who bought in the last 6 years. Just treading water... and with the 'buy small and upgrade later' attitude so many of then have jumped into inappropriate investments locked in with no escape.

Poor old perth. So glad we got out before the mess.
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
2 users reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous)
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy