Are you seriously predicting a house price crash based on wages in WA not growing enough by 0.2%?
Perth prices to income are only 6.3 times the average WA income according to Rp Data, isn't Melbourne around 8?
Wake me up when Perth gets to 7% unemployment and prices rise to 8 times income, then you guys might finally see a correction, then again maybe not Melbourne is not showing much signs of a crashing property market hey?
To East coast doom and gloomers Perth is like this fairy tale land where they will finally see their dreams of misery visited on someone. WA has a great future did you guys miss the news of all the money that has been invested here?
If you take the median price and divide it by an Australian average $35 an hour wage, you get 7.14 times income.
Remember, the average wage is being skewed up by high earning resource sector employees. WA average weekly wages are $285 above Vic and $255 above NSW.
It stands to reason that our wages will fall into line with the rest of the country when resources construction finishes.
Also remember that we are not in Melbourne or Sydney. We have land in abundance and a much smaller population by comparison.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Stock on market continues to fall while sales levels have remained above the 2013 levels for the same time. Keep in mind 2013 had the strongest winter sales for 7 years and Perth is currently tracking above last years sales volumes for winter. This is why stock has begun to fall over the past 4 weeks.
Even rental stocks have begun to decline in recent weeks.
The data released recently reflects the quiet autumn Perth had after a very strong summer. Winter has rebounded strongly and is now the strongest sales volumes for this time of year since 2007.
Expect to see a solid spring/summer in both sales and price growth for the 2nd half of 2014 and first half of 2015.
Stock on market continues to fall while sales levels have remained above the 2013 levels for the same time. Keep in mind 2013 had the strongest winter sales for 7 years and Perth is currently tracking above last years sales volumes for winter. This is why stock has begun to fall over the past 4 weeks.
Even rental stocks have begun to decline in recent weeks.
The data released recently reflects the quiet autumn Perth had after a very strong summer. Winter has rebounded strongly and is now the strongest sales volumes for this time of year since 2007.
Expect to see a solid spring/summer in both sales and price growth for the 2nd half of 2014 and first half of 2015.
Bullshit.
I am monitoring stock on market and rental vacancies and they are both up (and markedly so).
Even the link you post reveals the following.
Stock on market 4 weeks ago 10,711 Same week last year 9,109
Listed For Rent 5,950 Same week last year 4,128
piss off
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Wake me up when Perth gets to 7% unemployment and prices rise to 8 times income, then you guys might finally see a correction, then again maybe not Melbourne is not showing much signs of a crashing property market hey?
I doubt that a jumbo jet crash would wake you up skamy, much less a property crash. Not a personal attack, just an observation.
But I too have my doubts about a Perth property crash - vested interests have property so stitched-up in this country that the price of houses need no longer correspond to the only real purpose of their existence. Perhaps even a severe economic slump may not bring them down agreat deal. Who knows? Although the WA governments plan to supply significant amounts of housing at prices well below the median may end up becoming a drag. But the spending will flow on to consumption and jobs. Question is, will it be enough?
I am monitoring stock on market and rental vacancies and they are both up (and markedly so).
Even the link you post reveals the following.
Stock on market 4 weeks ago 10,711 Same week last year 9,109
Listed For Rent 5,950 Same week last year 4,128
piss off
You really are thick, can't even read a simple post.
I said sales volumes are above 2013 levels for the same time last year. Sales are tracking at the highest level for winter since 2007 which they are.
I said stock on market has been declining the last 4 weeks which it has, rental stock has also declined the last few weeks.
Do try and read carefully.
You are making so many mistakes I really cannot believe you have much experience at all in property, development or anything else. Your experience does not stack up with your knowledge or constant errors in your posts.
This is basic stuff yet you cannot get it right.
Veritas
14 Aug 2014, 12:23 PM
What a lonely battle you are fighting here.
Where is Shadberg PR to help you out?
They have cut WA loose Skamy and are focussing the daily spruik on the Eastern markets.
That should tell you something.
As someone likes to say around these parts, its supply and demand.
Supply is up. in fact, given the amount coming on line we are rapidly hitting oversupply.
Demand is down: wages falling, labour market tightening, migration in down, migration out up, vacancy rate skyrocketing, listings increasing.
When supply increases and demand falls, prices_______
Ill leave that blank for you to fill in the missing word.
Hmm you must have missed supply falling for the past month.
While stock levels have increased from last year, we were at critically low levels of supply in 2013. Perth is presently 2,500 to 3,000 properties short of what is considered a balanced market for property stock. Property stock is still tight although supply has increased from last year.
Once Perth hits 13,000 properties ore more on the market as per Reiwa, Perth will be considered to be a balanced market. Until then price pressure on houses and land will continue, as demand is still outstripping supply due to strong sales volumes.
You need to look over sales data, this winter is tracking as the strongest since 2007, even better then 2013 which lead into a strong 7% surge in houses prices over spring and summer in 2013.
While I agree supply is increasing as more construction is happening, demand is also increasing as sales indicate. Demand for property has not fallen as yet as sales continue to increase over 2013 levels for winter. If this trend continues it will make for a busy spring/summer. Hence why I have said we will have some solid growth over the next 6 months.
In fact I am a little surprised by the strong sales results I'm seeing, and I might have been to bearish in my predictions in recent months. I was also concerned about a glut of apartments being built but they continue to sell strongly. Seems apartments are a new fashion statement in Perth.
Mike
14 Aug 2014, 01:53 PM
You really are thick, can't even read a simple post.
I said sales volumes are above 2013 levels for the same time last year. Sales are tracking at the highest level for winter since 2007 which they are.
I said stock on market has been declining the last 4 weeks which it has, rental stock has also declined the last few weeks.
Do try and read carefully.
You are making so many mistakes I really cannot believe you have much experience at all in property, development or anything else. Your experience does not stack up with your knowledge or constant errors in your posts.
This is basic stuff yet you cannot get it right. Hmm you must have missed supply falling for the past month.
While stock levels have increased from last year, we were at critically low levels of supply in 2013. Perth is presently 2,500 to 3,000 properties short of what is considered a balanced market for property stock. Property stock is still tight although supply has increased from last year.
Once Perth hits 13,000 properties ore more on the market as per Reiwa, Perth will be considered to be a balanced market. Until then price pressure on houses and land will continue, as demand is still outstripping supply due to strong sales volumes.
You need to look over sales data, this winter is tracking as the strongest since 2007, even better then 2013 which lead into a strong 7% surge in houses prices over spring and summer in 2013.
While I agree supply is increasing as more construction is happening, demand is also increasing as sales indicate. Demand for property has not fallen as yet as sales continue to increase over 2013 levels for winter. If this trend continues it will make for a busy spring/summer. Hence why I have said we will have some solid growth over the next 6 months.
In fact I am a little surprised by the strong sales results I'm seeing, and I might have been to bearish in my predictions in recent months. I was also concerned about a glut of apartments being built but they continue to sell strongly. Seems apartments are a new fashion statement in Perth.
There are also a few other factors in play which will also help for a solid spring/summer sales and prices, but I will keep that close to my chest to see if anyone else mentions it. Then I know who the real serious people are and know what they are talking about. I will wait and see.
You really are thick, can't even read a simple post.
I said sales volumes are above 2013 levels for the same time last year. Sales are tracking at the highest level for winter since 2007 which they are.
I said stock on market has been declining the last 4 weeks which it has, rental stock has also declined the last few weeks.
Do try and read carefully.
You are making so many mistakes I really cannot believe you have much experience at all in property, development or anything else. Your experience does not stack up with your knowledge or constant errors in your posts.
This is basic stuff yet you cannot get it right.
Sorry Mike, but thick is when you take the numbers published by a snake oil salesman as proof that snake oil works.
My own daily snapshots of REIWA and realestate.co.au data show me that their numbers are not quite right.
Whatever! If we take their numbers as gospel, the link you posted tells the following.
Stock for sale on market is 15% above this time last year.
Rentals available are 35% higher.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
the guys at reiwa arent so rosy on the numbers/trends they have on their website..
Quote:
Stewart Darby, executive manager research of the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia said there was an emerging risk of excess stock. “The risk of oversupply in the foreseeable future by 2015-16 is a real possibility as new supply is completed but demand, particularly for rental stock, is falling as population growth slows,” Mr Darby said.
“This in turn will limit demand for rental property at a time when rental markets across WA are already haemorrhaging.”
Of course they can't spruik upwards forever because they might lose their "credibility".
So they talk about potential downside risks to cover their arses.
Meanwhile, I am off to McDonalds to eat one of their free range healthy burgers.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
If ever there was a sign of the slowdown in Western Australian economy, it was yesterday's wages data, released by the ABS, which revealed that wages growth in Western Australia slowed to just 2.4% in the year to June in raw terms, the lowest rate of growth on record, and below the national average of 2.6% growth.
Not surprisingly, the mining sector is the cause of the decline, with wages growth in mining just 2.5% in the year to June, albeit growth has picked-up slightly from the March quarter.
As for the future outlook for Western Australian wages growth, mining and energy-related capex has only fallen moderately from its peak and clearly has much further to fall.
To be fair to skamy, I thought they would have been lower.
Mike
14 Aug 2014, 01:53 PM
You really are thick, can't even read a simple post.
I said sales volumes are above 2013 levels for the same time last year. Sales are tracking at the highest level for winter since 2007 which they are.
I said stock on market has been declining the last 4 weeks which it has, rental stock has also declined the last few weeks.
Do try and read carefully.
You are making so many mistakes I really cannot believe you have much experience at all in property, development or anything else. Your experience does not stack up with your knowledge or constant errors in your posts.
This is basic stuff yet you cannot get it right. Hmm you must have missed supply falling for the past month.
While stock levels have increased from last year, we were at critically low levels of supply in 2013. Perth is presently 2,500 to 3,000 properties short of what is considered a balanced market for property stock. Property stock is still tight although supply has increased from last year.
Once Perth hits 13,000 properties ore more on the market as per Reiwa, Perth will be considered to be a balanced market. Until then price pressure on houses and land will continue, as demand is still outstripping supply due to strong sales volumes.
You need to look over sales data, this winter is tracking as the strongest since 2007, even better then 2013 which lead into a strong 7% surge in houses prices over spring and summer in 2013.
While I agree supply is increasing as more construction is happening, demand is also increasing as sales indicate. Demand for property has not fallen as yet as sales continue to increase over 2013 levels for winter. If this trend continues it will make for a busy spring/summer. Hence why I have said we will have some solid growth over the next 6 months.
In fact I am a little surprised by the strong sales results I'm seeing, and I might have been to bearish in my predictions in recent months. I was also concerned about a glut of apartments being built but they continue to sell strongly. Seems apartments are a new fashion statement in Perth. There are also a few other factors in play which will also help for a solid spring/summer sales and prices, but I will keep that close to my chest to see if anyone else mentions it. Then I know who the real serious people are and know what they are talking about. I will wait and see.
MoM are subject to seasonal variations mike, whereas YoY will give you a better comparison. Even better, can you compare this years MoM with last years MoM?
There are also a few other factors in play which will also help for a solid spring/summer sales and prices, but I will keep that close to my chest to see if anyone else mentions it. Then I know who the real serious people are and know what they are talking about. I will wait and see.
I liked the way you quoted yourself and replied that you know a few secrets that only the real serious people are likely to know about. Be sure to reveal these secrets in the future as they unfold and give yourself a pat on the back for it.
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