For heavens sake Veritas there is no bubble in Perth it there ever was one it peaked in 2007.
Overbuilding and over speculation by people gambling on making money by simply buying and selling off the plan was the major destabiliser and the credit crunch was the trigger in the markets that crahed eg Spain and Ireland.
Lose the bubble talk Veritas, this will become a running joke wait and see. Look at all the press now ridiculing bubble claims.
The bubble, if it was anything, was a graph of activity in the economy, it did not cause anything, it simply tracked the economy.
Of course, this is great. More new houses means greater supply and we all know what happens to the supply/demand price impact when you change the balance.
You could argue that a surge in house building will bring in more people but the most likely outcome is that someone who was doing a bit of plumbing or electrical in Jimblebar or Chrsitmas Creek, will soon be plying his trade in Baldivis (for half the money).
According to Skamenomics more supply is good for prices.
And here was I thinking that if supply increases relative to demand, it would have a deflationary impact on prices.
How could I have got it so wrong?
Time to remove this from the first chapter of every economics book written since 1700
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
According to Skamenomics more supply is good for prices.
It is.
If you are looking to buy.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
WA continues to face economic headwinds with State final demand, which excludes exports, falling by 0.3 per cent. It was the third consecutive quarterly fall.
Over the full year, State final demand is down by 1.6 per cent.
The fall is being driven by the drop off in private capital spending led by the mining sector.
Well that seems to confirm it - FHBers in WA appear to have access to more affordable housing than they do elsewhere, it isn't merely a matter of still having an FHOG in place. Unless they happen to be Cashed Up Bogans.
Well that seems to confirm it - FHBers in WA appear to have access to more affordable housing than they do elsewhere, it isn't merely a matter of still having an FHOG in place. Unless they happen to be Cashed Up Bogans.
WA's migrant population is much greater than the other states, and has been for a while. The UK housing market has picked up, allowing migrants to sell their UK homes. The exchange rate is better than it has been for a while. Not surprising really. But not really indicative either. Migrants get fhb grants as well as youngsters.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
In Perth’s best suburbs, many homeowners are going backwards.
Values of houses worth more than $1 million in Mosman Park, Dalkeith, Subiaco and Cottesloe are either flat or have fallen since 2008, new data shows.
The median house price for $1 million-plus homes in Mosman Park was $1.55 million last financial year compared with $1.75 million five years ago, according to data compiled by REIWA.com.au for The Australian Financial Review. The data compared all house sales across Perth above $1 million since 2008.
“It’s been pretty much a no-growth zone for the best part of six years,” Real Estate Institute of West Australia president David Airey said.
“A lot that haven’t sold will come back on the market shortly pretending they are new listings.”
Luxury homes in the riverside suburb of Dalkeith dropped from a median of $2.4 million to $2.3 million over the period. House prices in Subiaco didn’t budge at $1.35 million. The median property selling for more than $1 million in Cottesloe increased modestly, from $1.84 million to $1.86 million.
The dour figures show hopes of a recovery in Perth’s prestige property last year – in part linked to the sale of a Cottesloe home for $7.25 million, $2 million more than anticipated – have failed to materialise. Agents have since described the Cottesloe sale as a case of two extremely wealthy people bidding for a prized beach-side house and not the sign competition had re-emerged.
WA's migrant population is much greater than the other states, and has been for a while. The UK housing market has picked up, allowing migrants to sell their UK homes. The exchange rate is better than it has been for a while. Not surprising really. But not really indicative either. Migrants get fhb grants as well as youngsters.
The UK housing market boom is very London centric with only very small gains in the rest of the country.
Also, the pound only buys around $1.78 at the moment when during the Perth property boom 2001 to 2007, the pound was buying between $2.50 and $3.00.
There are still lifestyle incentives for Poms to come here, but that has always been the case. However, they will not be bringing the big fat wads of cash that earned them the nickname "cashed up Poms" in the 2000's.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
The UK housing market boom is very London centric with only very small gains in the rest of the country.
Also, the pound only buys around $1.78 at the moment when during the Perth property boom 2001 to 2007, the pound was buying between $2.50 and $3.00.
There are still lifestyle incentives for Poms to come here, but that has always been the case. However, they will not be bringing the big fat wads of cash that earned them the nickname "cashed up Poms" in the 2000's.
No, I agree with that.
But they are able to sell houses now, even in the north, whereas they would have struggled before. Plus 1.80 is better than 1.40. They won't be buying mcmansions, they will be buying starter homes. But they will boost your fhb numbers.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
But they are able to sell houses now, even in the north, whereas they would have struggled before. Plus 1.80 is better than 1.40. They won't be buying mcmansions, they will be buying starter homes. But they will boost your fhb numbers.
We had a new starter last year from Lancashire and he'd thought about coming over in 2003/4 but put it off for family reasons. He decided to apply again when he saw that house prices in Perth were falling in 2011. Between applying and arriving however, prices had increased.
The difference between him coming in 2004 and 2013 is pretty big. When he was looking to come over in 2004, he would have arrived as either a median priced cash buyer or with a small mortgage (say 100k) he could have bought big.
In 2013, he has bought a fairly average below median 400k house with half of that mortgaged. Also, as an Engineer, he would have commanded a much high salary four or five years ago than he can get today.
Timing is everything.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
But they are able to sell houses now, even in the north, whereas they would have struggled before. Plus 1.80 is better than 1.40. They won't be buying mcmansions, they will be buying starter homes. But they will boost your fhb numbers.
What will be the impact of a Scottish Yes vote to split from the Union.
The pound got hammered yesterday and a lot of fear in media reports from the UK. Can't be good the property market looking forward the next few years. Thoughts?
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