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The Perth Property Crash Thread; Let us enjoy the inevitable collapse as it unfolds in WA
Topic Started: 13 Aug 2014, 12:28 AM (89,627 Views)
Mike
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peter fraser
2 Sep 2014, 02:07 PM
Perth is a market that I have virtually no connection with, so what it does is no concern of mine, but when I see a number of guys loudly proclaiming a crash in Perth it strikes me as a bit of a dubious call when the data isn't backing that up.

Maybe the data will change. I expect to see Perth struggle a little, but it seems to be holding up better than I thought it would. Whenever sales volumes decline and rental vacancies climb then there should be some good buys, but a rental vacancy rate of 2.4% is still pretty good and the prices are holding at the moment.

It just doesn't look like a crash to me.
The vacancy rate also feel over the month of August as rental stock declined along with properties on market. The last two weeks have seen sales drop away from last years highs in winter but prior to this winter sales from June/July had exceeded last year. When you consider last year was the strongest winter in 7 years and we have just equalled or very nearly, it does not sound like a crash does it.

I agree with your thoughts, I expect to see Perth have a steady market from Autumn/Winter 2015 for a few years. This Spring/Summer I expect to see around 3-5% growth over the next 6 months.

What continues to support the property market here is a very strong FHB market due to our affordable housing. 25-30% of the market is FHB, which provides a solid floor for the market, provides sales for upgraders wanting that newer bigger home as almost 2/3rds of FHB buy established houses.

I don't really see this changing, as Perth has lots of land to develop and we are, so the bottom 1/3 of the market will continue to have affordable housing as an entry point. This will keep a floor under the market.

I do not see the market falling much until rates start to rise then we will see a drop off in activity for awhile, rate rises always spook the market.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Blondie girl
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realist
2 Sep 2014, 03:16 PM
For Perth people if their property doesn't grow by at least 3-5% p/a that is considered a recession. We are in for a period of stagnation. Hardly the end of the world. People have been saying the same thing since the GFC. Anyway I don't think prices will change much, we have many high income earners only now being enlightened on "negative gearing" and many uninformed will pour their $$$ into property.
Hey realist
There's some sanity that you've posted, but I don't agree about recession stuff. It's bizness as usual for those long term owners & investors.

What never changes is the fact there's always going to be some investors who have gotten hocked to their eyeballs & will need to sell up if they don't want to drown.

Slow stuff & stagnant.

Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Jimbo
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peter fraser
2 Sep 2014, 03:47 PM
You must be sure of a large crash considering the transaction costs of selling and buying in again. That isn't something that I would have done. Best of luck.

I am friends with a local RE and he had buyers looking for my type of property and he knew their budget. I priced to their budget and they paid it. I got maybe 10% to 15% more than I would get now.

I have also had my eye on three specific properties that have been on the market for a while (one for just over a year). They have all made reductions and still not a sniff.

The trick to not getting caught out doing this is to watch the market like a hawk.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Blondie girl
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Perthite
2 Sep 2014, 02:58 PM
Sub-markets are already rolling over in Perth.

Rural Markets are popping one by one. Broome the latest.
Put your $ where your mouth is

When are you buying that piece of heavily discounted property that you are looking forward to buy?
Yeah..

Just looking & waiting for the opportunity that will be right in front of you & you will be too gutless to act on it.
Jimbo
2 Sep 2014, 04:24 PM
I am friends with a local RE and he had buyers looking for my type of property and he knew their budget. I priced to their budget and they paid it. I got maybe 10% to 15% more than I would get now.

I have also had my eye on three specific properties that have been on the market for a while (one for just over a year). They have all made reductions and still not a sniff.

The trick to not getting caught out doing this is to watch the market like a hawk.
Of course jumbo.

Says the moron who thinks negative equity is a goal to financial nirvana.

Maybe you've sold because you've hocked yourself up?

Better make friends with the casino areas, look carefully then.
peter fraser
2 Sep 2014, 02:07 PM
Perth is a market that I have virtually no connection with, so what it does is no concern of mine, but when I see a number of guys loudly proclaiming a crash in Perth it strikes me as a bit of a dubious call when the data isn't backing that up.

Maybe the data will change. I expect to see Perth struggle a little, but it seems to be holding up better than I thought it would. Whenever sales volumes decline and rental vacancies climb then there should be some good buys, but a rental vacancy rate of 2.4% is still pretty good and the prices are holding at the moment.

It just doesn't look like a crash to me.
Yes banana bender why do you care? ;)


I'm going to kick out 1 lot of tenant after their lease ends, due to some non compliance issues. Another lot will be vacating in November, so it will interesting to see what happens then.
Edited by Blondie girl, 2 Sep 2014, 04:37 PM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Blondie girl
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Where's that Perfite?

Why hasn't he conveniently answered my query?


Why has that Jimbo sold up if he stated that he has been doing brilliantly in property?
Something not right.

Oh
Hang on he knows there's better areas to buy with negative equity.
Edited by Blondie girl, 3 Sep 2014, 12:59 AM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Mike
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Jimbo
2 Sep 2014, 04:24 PM
I am friends with a local RE and he had buyers looking for my type of property and he knew their budget. I priced to their budget and they paid it. I got maybe 10% to 15% more than I would get now.

I have also had my eye on three specific properties that have been on the market for a while (one for just over a year). They have all made reductions and still not a sniff.

The trick to not getting caught out doing this is to watch the market like a hawk.
This is a very suss statement.

So you priced to your RE friends client's budget and they paid 10-15% more then you would get today. You instantly sold up as your friend had buyers ready and waiting for your type of property.

Sounds like a load of steaming crap.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Blondie girl
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The thing is he's pulled out, & there's reasons besides market changes, but if 1 is able to afford to maintain there's no need to get out in a panic.

He acts like that Perth is in the toilet, yet he is all over the forum blogging some crap.

Open your eyes boof head take a good look what's happening, it's not all bad news.
Oh hell.. Jumbo.

Are you out of work? Or is your number up?
Edited by Blondie girl, 3 Sep 2014, 01:39 AM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Jimbo
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Mike
3 Sep 2014, 12:59 AM
This is a very suss statement.

So you priced to your RE friends client's budget and they paid 10-15% more then you would get today. You instantly sold up as your friend had buyers ready and waiting for your type of property.

Sounds like a load of steaming crap.
Totally true.

I have pulled out of the market on a temporary basis so that I can trade up.

I can see what is coming, I have researched my target market.

My RE friend knew of my intentions to sell and lined up a good prospective buyer who had expressed an interest in my type of property in my location. It is a premium property and houses of that type are subject to large swings in prices during any market.

I have no mortgage (haven't had a mortgage for over ten years).

As for the negative equity thing that you and your has been model alcoholic girlfriend keep harping on about, I traded up in London nearly twenty years ago by transferring a loan that was in negative equity to a higher value property.

It was done by arrangement with my lender and was common practice in the UK in the 1990's when large proportions of UK borrowers were in negative equity.

Each applicant was treated on merit.

Now Mike, kindly piss off back to your little invented property empire and comedy economics blog and take that incoherent, gin swilling old hag with you.



Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Blondie girl
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I don't drink gin & I drink on weekends only. Sometimes I have a bit too much.

Otherwise I do look after myself.

Unlike you, Im not a snake & twist words to suit their agenda.

I've been accused of a lot of shit on this forum, I know you won't be the last one, but what I do understand is property...
Unlike you.

I'm not affiliated personally with mike.
Fail.





Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Jimbo
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Blondie girl
3 Sep 2014, 01:55 AM
Unlike you, Im not a snake & twist words to suit their agenda.






What do you suppose my agenda is? I am not deluded. I don't believe for a second that what I say on here is going to reduce Perth property prices. They will manage that on their own.

Meanwhile, you Mike and a few others, leveraged up to the earholes, spend your time relentlessly trying to spruik the market because you are terrified of what is coming.

If you really were highly successful property investors with positive cashflow and high net worth, you wouldn't get so tetchy when someone else says that Perth property is set for a decline.

Your main line of attack is to call anyone who says something that contradicts your illusions, a liar.

Mikes stories are unraveling daily. His claims to be an expert in statistical analysis have been exposed a couple of times as being pure bullshit. He can't even seem to grasp the basics.

You are particularly poisonous. You are an outright snob. You only deal in high end suburbs and anything south of Canning bridge is bogan territory.

You remind everyone every chance you get that you were once a glamorous model living the high life. Even your handle tries to create the illusion of glamour.

Bloody pathetic if you ask me.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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