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The Perth Property Crash Thread; Let us enjoy the inevitable collapse as it unfolds in WA
Topic Started: 13 Aug 2014, 12:28 AM (89,628 Views)
peter fraser
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Mike
2 Sep 2014, 01:49 PM
Newjez has been calling a crash for over 3 years, still nothing. Along with Perthite and Co, yet they are constantly wrong as they will be this time.

Bears live on the hope of negativity, that something bad will happen to save their would view point and hence their economic plans for the future.

They cannot provide any evidence as none exists. You only need to look around Perth to see the huge amount of construction activity currently underway and increasing. This is why we see no large increase in unemployment, Perth has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation.

What Bears cannot seem to understand is the slow down in mining investment will not translate into world ending event for WA's economy or the Nation. Yes it will slow from the dizzy heights of 2010/11 to a more sustainable long term growth rate, that's why they call it a boom. Booms don't last forever.

We already see the results in Capex data, while I expect Capex to decrease over time, it will be nowhere near as bad as what bears expect. It is why they are not seeing what they predicted 2 years ago or even 12 months ago happening.
Perth is a market that I have virtually no connection with, so what it does is no concern of mine, but when I see a number of guys loudly proclaiming a crash in Perth it strikes me as a bit of a dubious call when the data isn't backing that up.

Maybe the data will change. I expect to see Perth struggle a little, but it seems to be holding up better than I thought it would. Whenever sales volumes decline and rental vacancies climb then there should be some good buys, but a rental vacancy rate of 2.4% is still pretty good and the prices are holding at the moment.

It just doesn't look like a crash to me.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Jimbo
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peter fraser
2 Sep 2014, 02:07 PM
Perth is a market that I have virtually no connection with, so what it does is no concern of mine, but when I see a number of guys loudly proclaiming a crash in Perth it strikes me as a bit of a dubious call when the data isn't backing that up.

Maybe the data will change. I expect to see Perth struggle a little, but it seems to be holding up better than I thought it would. Whenever sales volumes decline and rental vacancies climb then there should be some good buys, but a rental vacancy rate of 2.4% is still pretty good and the prices are holding at the moment.

It just doesn't look like a crash to me.
On the surface it appears that it is business as usual in Perth, but that is about to change.

I'm not sure where you get the 2.4% rental vacancy rate from? Please provide a source.

Meanwhile, the Capex boom has peaked and the big projects are finishing up. Also, the state government is suffering from reduced revenues from the falling Iron Ore price as well as a credit rating downgrade (some can be clawed back via GST, but not all).

Perth wages are higher than elsewhere because of the Capex boom. Wages increased across most sectors simply due to the trickle down effect from mining Capex. Office and housing construction will not pay as much.

The houses we are building now in our mini construction boom are for people who committed to buy a year or so ago.

Many of the people moving into those new houses will be renting now.

The state government has made changes to stamp duty law and FHO grants to favour the new build market. 40% of FHO's are now building new as opposed to 25% a year ago.

Immigration to the state is falling. Interstate has slowed and Victoria to WA is now net negative. Applications for 457's in the first half of 2014 are down 41% on the same period last year. (457's are the largest international immigration group). A fall in 457's indicates either a lack of demand from employers or a lack of interest in WA as a destination.

I sold in June because I am pretty sure we are in for a rough ride over the coming year or two. We are just at the beginning.




Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Perthite
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peter fraser
2 Sep 2014, 02:07 PM
Perth is a market that I have virtually no connection with, so what it does is no concern of mine, but when I see a number of guys loudly proclaiming a crash in Perth it strikes me as a bit of a dubious call when the data isn't backing that up.

Maybe the data will change. I expect to see Perth struggle a little, but it seems to be holding up better than I thought it would. Whenever sales volumes decline and rental vacancies climb then there should be some good buys, but a rental vacancy rate of 2.4% is still pretty good and the prices are holding at the moment.

It just doesn't look like a crash to me.
Sub-markets are already rolling over in Perth.

Rural Markets are popping one by one. Broome the latest.
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realist
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Quote:
 
I sold in June because I am pretty sure we are in for a rough ride over the coming year or two. We are just at the beginning.
For Perth people if their property doesn't grow by at least 3-5% p/a that is considered a recession. We are in for a period of stagnation. Hardly the end of the world. People have been saying the same thing since the GFC. Anyway I don't think prices will change much, we have many high income earners only now being enlightened on "negative gearing" and many uninformed will pour their $$$ into property.
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Massive
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im sure the WA opposition will eat up Mr Hockey's smackdown of WA Libs performance today:

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24874197/libs-in-party-room-stoush-over-gst/
Quote:
 
Mr Hockey accused the Barnett Government of poor budget management, citing its poor record on privatisation.


appears the state gov got told what time it was when they came in with cap in hand for more GST moneys..

Edited by Massive, 2 Sep 2014, 03:17 PM.
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newjez
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peter fraser
2 Sep 2014, 12:30 PM
Show me the data. You called a crash so there must be data, where is it?

Why is that a difficult request to comply with. I've read 32 pages of crash posts - where is it?




If you are calling a crash then of course it's relevant.
I haven't called a crash. It was someone called sock puppet who started the thread. Maybe you could suggest a title for Alex to rename it too if you are that worried?
Mike
2 Sep 2014, 01:49 PM
Newjez has been calling a crash for over 3 years, still nothing. Along with Perthite and Co, yet they are constantly wrong as they will be this time.

Bears live on the hope of negativity, that something bad will happen to save their would view point and hence their economic plans for the future.

They cannot provide any evidence as none exists. You only need to look around Perth to see the huge amount of construction activity currently underway and increasing. This is why we see no large increase in unemployment, Perth has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation.

What Bears cannot seem to understand is the slow down in mining investment will not translate into world ending event for WA's economy or the Nation. Yes it will slow from the dizzy heights of 2010/11 to a more sustainable long term growth rate, that's why they call it a boom. Booms don't last forever.

We already see the results in Capex data, while I expect Capex to decrease over time, it will be nowhere near as bad as what bears expect. It is why they are not seeing what they predicted 2 years ago or even 12 months ago happening.
Shadow has told us on another thread that property doubles every ten years. Perth has had five years with 3% growth. I predict another five years with no growth. So, effectively that will mean Perth property has halved in relation to Sydney, assuming shadow is correct in his assumptions. I guess you could call that a slow crash, and I guess we are in the middle of it. Massive I believe has provided the graphs. I suggest you and Peter go and peruse them.

Would you call a ten year glut a crash? May you would like to invite Shadow in so you can argue over his assumptions. By I doubt that will decrease the thread size.
Edited by newjez, 2 Sep 2014, 03:44 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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peter fraser
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newjez
2 Sep 2014, 03:29 PM
I haven't called a crash. It was someone called sock puppet who started the thread. Maybe you could suggest a title for Alex to rename it too if you are that worried?
I'm not worried one bit. My apologies if you are not calling a crash in Perth, it's just that quotes like this sound like a call-
Quote:
 
Let us enjoy the inevitable collapse as it unfolds in WA,

It's a six year bear market, its not a fireworks display.



Perthite
2 Sep 2014, 02:58 PM
Sub-markets are already rolling over in Perth.

Rural Markets are popping one by one. Broome the latest.
Fair enough, but markets don't ripple in from the countryside, what happens Broome won't affect Perth much.
Edited by peter fraser, 2 Sep 2014, 03:45 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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newjez
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peter fraser
2 Sep 2014, 03:44 PM
I'm not worried one bit. My apologies if you are not calling a crash in Perth, it's just that quotes like this sound like a call-


I was quoting the thread sub title Peter, the one sock puppet wrote.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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peter fraser
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Jimbo
2 Sep 2014, 02:53 PM
On the surface it appears that it is business as usual in Perth, but that is about to change.

I'm not sure where you get the 2.4% rental vacancy rate from? Please provide a source.

Meanwhile, the Capex boom has peaked and the big projects are finishing up. Also, the state government is suffering from reduced revenues from the falling Iron Ore price as well as a credit rating downgrade (some can be clawed back via GST, but not all).

Perth wages are higher than elsewhere because of the Capex boom. Wages increased across most sectors simply due to the trickle down effect from mining Capex. Office and housing construction will not pay as much.

The houses we are building now in our mini construction boom are for people who committed to buy a year or so ago.

Many of the people moving into those new houses will be renting now.

The state government has made changes to stamp duty law and FHO grants to favour the new build market. 40% of FHO's are now building new as opposed to 25% a year ago.

Immigration to the state is falling. Interstate has slowed and Victoria to WA is now net negative. Applications for 457's in the first half of 2014 are down 41% on the same period last year. (457's are the largest international immigration group). A fall in 457's indicates either a lack of demand from employers or a lack of interest in WA as a destination.

I sold in June because I am pretty sure we are in for a rough ride over the coming year or two. We are just at the beginning.



I took the data from an earlier post - here it is -
Posted Image

As you can see my memory let me down by 0.1%

You must be sure of a large crash considering the transaction costs of selling and buying in again. That isn't something that I would have done. Best of luck.


newjez
2 Sep 2014, 03:45 PM
I was quoting the thread sub title Peter, the one sock puppet wrote.
Ok I didn't connect the dots - my bad.
Edited by peter fraser, 2 Sep 2014, 03:49 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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newjez
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peter fraser
2 Sep 2014, 03:47 PM
I took the data from an earlier post - here it is -
Posted Image

As you can see my memory let me down by 0.1%

You must be sure of a large crash considering the transaction costs of selling and buying in again. That isn't something that I would have done. Best of luck.



Ok I didn't connect the dots - my bad.
I guess not if you happened to be moving anyway. I know a couple of people who were successful doing this during the GFC. But it is surprisingly hard to get the timing right both ways. I know a few who fucking it up badly.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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