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The Perth Property Crash Thread; Let us enjoy the inevitable collapse as it unfolds in WA
Topic Started: 13 Aug 2014, 12:28 AM (89,632 Views)
Jimbo
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skamy
30 Aug 2014, 06:21 PM
Look at the rise in the price of land Perthite, watch out for that you can see how supply is dropping as the glut from the GFC is sold and prices are now headed above previous highs. Median price went from $250K to $263,450 that is 5% up on the quarter from dec to mar, the most recent reliable figures.

There is a rush for vacant land and development blocks as developers try to cash in on the building boom that is currently underway.

But the current building boom is being fed by people who already live here realising that they can buy a new house cheaper than renting.

The big clue to that is the increasing rental vacancy rate.

I have been bullish on property for the last 20 years but even blind Freddy couldn't put a positive spin on Perth property today.

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Lef-tee
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Jimbo
30 Aug 2014, 06:29 PM
There is a rush for vacant land and development blocks as developers try to cash in on the building boom that is currently underway.

But the current building boom is being fed by people who already live here realising that they can buy a new house cheaper than renting.

The big clue to that is the increasing rental vacancy rate.

I have been bullish on property for the last 20 years but even blind Freddy couldn't put a positive spin on Perth property today.
I've noticed that the WA government seems to have put in place a significant-sized, multi-approach initiative to provide more affordable housing. This is in stark contrast to every other state government in the country as far as I'm aware.

What is more remarkable is how very, very little coverage it seems to have received. It is almost as though it is scarcely talked about because the notion that there is a serious need for large numbers of realistically affordable houses for those who have not yet bought runs contrary to the dominant meme that ever-rising house prices (ahead of inflation) are wonderful.
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goldbug
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Once we get past the peas and the carrot and look at the steak Australian property is supposed to double every 10 years at the very least (according to every investor I ever spoke to)
Perth prices are basically no higher than they were 7 years ago and thats with steady inflation. I can't see them doubling in the next 3 years myself.

The entire Australian property investment crowd, from the RE experts, to the sprukers to the property investors themselves got it wrong. They believed in a false precept. They are now discovering that rents don't "always" go up either, they can fall like in brisbane and canberra and perth. This is the second fundamental reason to invest in property after Capital gains.

How a property speculator can come on this forum and be bullish about their investments in the future in the light of these failures is laughable. Their calls on the future have Zero credibility.

Today's story is the French President's comments about an impending war in europe triggered by the Russian actions in the Ukraine. That's to be expected, the cycles always repeat. Boom times leading into a depression leading to war leading to a rebuild leading to boom times. And every generation thinks it won't happen to them. No one believed WWII was possible even as German tanks rolled into the nations around them.

Get out of debt.
Get some cash equivalents piled up
Get ready for the depression and the wars that follow.
And if you have teenage children, start planning how to get them classified unfit for active service. Or you will likely see them die on some middle eastern battlefield.
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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stinkbug
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goldbug
31 Aug 2014, 08:25 AM
Once we get past the peas and the carrot and look at the steak Australian property is supposed to double every 10 years at the very least (according to every investor I ever spoke to)
Liar.

Link to a post here where an actual self-identified investor has ever said that.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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doubleview
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stinkbug
31 Aug 2014, 08:28 AM
Liar.

Link to a post here where an actual self-identified investor has ever said that.
Huh! a link ?

This was parroted all around barbecues during the early/mid 2000's.

Spawned and promoted by all the wannabes R Kiyosaki's.

Now all of a sudden its the abdominal snowman of property investing like a swear word to APF bulls.

Get your hand off it!

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newjez
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doubleview
31 Aug 2014, 10:10 AM
Huh! a link ?

This was parroted all around barbecues during the early/mid 2000's.

Spawned and promoted by all the wannabes R Kiyosaki's.

Now all of a sudden its the abdominal snowman of property investing like a swear word to APF bulls.

Get your hand off it!
Shadow speak is double plus good.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

goldbug
31 Aug 2014, 08:25 AM
Once we get past the peas and the carrot and look at the steak Australian property is supposed to double every 10 years at the very least (according to every investor I ever spoke to)
Perth prices are basically no higher than they were 7 years ago and thats with steady inflation. I can't see them doubling in the next 3 years myself.

The entire Australian property investment crowd, from the RE experts, to the sprukers to the property investors themselves got it wrong. They believed in a false precept. They are now discovering that rents don't "always" go up either, they can fall like in brisbane and canberra and perth. This is the second fundamental reason to invest in property after Capital gains.

How a property speculator can come on this forum and be bullish about their investments in the future in the light of these failures is laughable. Their calls on the future have Zero credibility.

Today's story is the French President's comments about an impending war in europe triggered by the Russian actions in the Ukraine. That's to be expected, the cycles always repeat. Boom times leading into a depression leading to war leading to a rebuild leading to boom times. And every generation thinks it won't happen to them. No one believed WWII was possible even as German tanks rolled into the nations around them.

Get out of debt.
Get some cash equivalents piled up
Get ready for the depression and the wars that follow.
And if you have teenage children, start planning how to get them classified unfit for active service. Or you will likely see them die on some middle eastern battlefield.
The property does not double you knuckle head, your money halves.
Wake the fucjk up.
Peter
I had a property offered to me last week at the same price the person bought it for 10 years ago, i am thinking of offering him 75%.
Peter
Black Panther
30 Aug 2014, 03:50 PM
I remember you saying a few years ago that land prices were collapsing.

Here is the chart.

Posted Image

Wrong again.
I am going to make this very simple, Perth property is very much in decline.
Western Australian property is in decline.
The mining money is washing out of the market.
If that lost cash flow does not get replaced with in 18 months this trend will increase.
The aircraft is at 36,000 feet and no fuel is getting to the engines.
What do you think the outcome will be??
Perthite may have been early on his call but i support his position 100%.
Not withstanding some out of left field event, like WW3 starts next month.
Peter
Remember that. When it starts.
Edited by Foxy, 31 Aug 2014, 10:42 AM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Jimbo
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doubleview
31 Aug 2014, 10:10 AM
This was parroted all around barbecues during the early/mid 2000's.
I still hear it being said today. A mate of mine was telling me last week how he has made more money from property than he has from working. He has a mortgaged PPOR only.

I tried explaining that he hasn't actually made a red cent but he didn't want to hear it.

My missus was on at me to buy an investment property or five back in 2007, mainly because all her friends had them and I think she felt left out of the conversations when picking the kids up from school.

Meanwhile, the local vacancy rate has ticked up 17.5% in 7 weeks and has risen consistently every week. Something is going on out there.

Barbeque season is coming up soon and I wonder what the chatter will be?

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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newjez
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Mustapha Mond
31 Aug 2014, 10:32 AM
The property does not double you knuckle head, your money halves.
Wake the fucjk up.
Peter
I had a property offered to me last week at the same price the person bought it for 10 years ago, i am thinking of offering him 75%.
Peter

I am going to make this very simple, Perth property is very much in decline.
Western Australian property is in decline.
The mining money is washing out of the market.
If that lost cash flow does not get replaced with in 18 months this trend will increase.
The aircraft is at 36,000 feet and no fuel is getting to the engines.
What do you think the outcome will be??
Perthite may have been early on his call but i support his position 100%.
Not withstanding some out of left field event, like WW3 starts next month.
Peter
Remember that. When it starts.
Probably the wisest thing you have ever said.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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stinkbug
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doubleview
31 Aug 2014, 10:10 AM
Huh! a link ?

This was parroted all around barbecues during the early/mid 2000's.

Spawned and promoted by all the wannabes R Kiyosaki's.

Now all of a sudden its the abdominal snowman of property investing like a swear word to APF bulls.

Get your hand off it!
I don't go to barbeques frequented by people who think property investment is a topic for social conversation.

The serious investors don't parrot this shit. Bears making shit up to throw at bulls should remember that.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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