WA will be just fine, it has an unemployment level of only 5% and is one of the wealthiest states per capita. The crash drama queens are setting themselves up for yet another big FAIL.
But like any market, it needs more to grow.
Wages rising with inflation doesn't create more capital input into property. Flat sentiment going forward does not inspire investment buyers to take risks.
Markets turn when people don't feel pressured into buying in case they miss out.
At the moment, there is no pressure to buy in Perth.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Would you consider a drop in the median of between 20-30% a crash?
That's what's coming barring ZIRP.
No it is not coming, some silly people are speculating that this will happen. Perth has seen many mining cycles and I don't think there has been an annual drop of above 10% since the 70s. As far as I recall the largest recorded drops have been around 6% but I have not got the data to hand.
The people who predict these wild things have been wrong over and over, yet here you are still believing them. Perth is a stable market in a wealthy city with almost the lowest unemployment in the country. How could a fall of in the no of big wages in a small segment of the working population lead to such a previously unheard of outcome. It does not pass any sanity test at all.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
No it is not coming, some silly people are speculating that this will happen. Perth has seen many mining cycles and I don't think there has been an annual drop of above 10% since the 70s. As far as I recall the largest recorded drops have been around 6% but I have not got the data to hand.
The people who predict these wild things have been wrong over and over, yet here you are still believing them. Perth is a stable market in a wealthy city with almost the lowest unemployment in the country. How could a fall of in the no of big wages in a small segment of the working population lead to such a previously unheard of outcome. It does not pass any sanity test at all.
I bet this has happened since the 1970 either. Unless you think that this massive boom will plataue at these levels?
If it doesn't what on earth do you think will pick up the economic slack left behind at ground zero, WA?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
I bet this has happened since the 1970 either. Unless you think that this massive boom will plataue at these levels?
If it doesn't what on earth do you think will pick up the economic slack left behind at ground zero, WA?
I also bet that any economy in the world that received that level of investment has benefitted from it, not deteriorated. You are showing graphs that tell us that WA and other parts of the country are just completing huge new mining facilities. Are you saying that this money is wasted and it will bring house prices 20-30% lower than they were before these big new mines were built?
Show me anyone anywhere apart from you and Jimbo who are saying this. What about all the record export level and record state royalties, what about all the new home building and city building. All these things have historically led to increasing house prices, will these all suddenly have no positive effect at all.
There are probably more FIFO big wages lost in NSW than WA, will their property market drop by triple the previous historical records too?
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
I also bet that any economy in the world that received that level of investment has benefitted from it, not deteriorated. You are showing graphs that tell us that WA and other parts of the country are just completing huge new mining facilities. Are you saying that this money is wasted and it will bring house prices 20-30% lower than they were before these big new mines were built?
Show me anyone anywhere apart from you and Jimbo who are saying this. What about all the record export level and record state royalties, what about all the new home building and city building. All these things have historically led to increasing house prices, will these all suddenly have no positive effect at all.
There are probably more FIFO big wages lost in NSW than WA, will their property market drop by triple the previous historical records too?
Skamy,
A huge contributor to the States wealth and therefore demand for housing is now contracting.
Either something comes along to fill that gap or the economy contracts, demand falls, unemployment rises.
That's how this works old bean.
Tell me, what is going to follow in the place of the largest mining and minerals boom in WA history?
And yeah, it wont go to zero but that still leaves slack that other sectors have to fill.
What are they?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
A huge contributor to the States wealth and therefore demand for housing is now contracting.
Either something comes along to fill that gap or the economy contracts, demand falls, unemployment rises.
That's how this works old bean.
Tell me, what is going to follow in the place of the largest mining and minerals boom in WA history?
And yeah, it wont go to zero but that still leaves slack that other sectors have to fill.
What are they?
The last set of ABS had WA creating jobs what are these people doing? You probably know better than me as I am relatively new here. I do know there is a lot of upcoming construction and that is a big employer.
Mining investment has been dropping and 457s and interstates are leaving, but these guys never bought property in Perth.
Rentals are down and vacancies are up that is a good thing. Now people on lower incomes are not running the same risks of homelessness.
House prices are not down, there is just a very normal winter market. Look at land prices what is happening there? Why are they increasing? Mining investment has been dropping since last year, why is land rising? Why are there record numbers of new home building approval?
The answer is that the mining investment boom played a large influence on thenPerth rental market but virtually none on the sales market.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Mining investment has been dropping and 457s and interstates are leaving, but these guys never bought property in Perth.
Not exactly true but they did need somewhere to live so they rented in a very competitive market and rents were bid up.
Seeing the increasing rental yields, investment buyers dived in for some cream.
Now the 457's and interstates are leaving (or not coming) we are seeing increasing rental vacancies.
Less incentive for investors to buy, more incentive for them to sell.
It is pretty easy to work out TBH and if you can't see it, maybe you need new glasses.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Not exactly true but they did need somewhere to live so they rented in a very competitive market and rents were bid up.
Seeing the increasing rental yields, investment buyers dived in for some cream.
Now the 457's and interstates are leaving (or not coming) we are seeing increasing rental vacancies.
Less incentive for investors to buy, more incentive for them to sell.
It is pretty easy to work out TBH and if you can't see it, maybe you need new glasses.
That is just not true sorry Jimbo. During the peak of the investment boom total property sales here were at record lows and during this small recovery in prices the market has been driven as much buy fhb as by investors.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy