Sorry Mike, I mixed a few dates up (memory fading with age).
Meanwhile, I did offer 850k when it was listed at 1.2 million and you will have to take my word for that.
At least the data shows that it was once worth more than 600k which according to you was not possible.
You really are a plonker Mike.
Do you honestly believe that I give a rats arse about what you and your three million devoted economic blog followers think?
No, not the top end. The top end isn't selling and has seen some pretty big falls in asking prices. These aren't reflecting in the median because the median looks at sold prices for houses that have actually sold. My whole point is that the middle and bottom end are not that far removed from the top end now so something has to give.
Bling houses near the beach were all the rage with your big earning FIFO and other mining related workers. Now they are being laid off, they are looking to cash in on their equity but nobody wants to pay big to buy into a suburb where big houses are fodder for the local Homes West burglary brigade.
Big houses in Mandurah have the same problem.
The Perth market is in decline and that is with interest rates at or below inflation. Real price growth in Perth is long gone. Unless a left field event happens. Peter Foxbat has some more info. Have to catch up with him at the sauna this week. It's about high end apartments. Perth market
The Perth market is in decline and that is with interest rates at or below inflation. Real price growth in Perth is long gone. Unless a left field event happens.
Mike reckons there is something that he his is keeping close to his chest. He will tell us about it after it has happened.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Mike reckons there is something that he his is keeping close to his chest. He will tell us about it after it has happened.
You are quite pathetic really.
Did you honestly think that you have been straight?
For Mike to be involved in the development stuff, I'm sure he would be in contact with home builders , land consultants etc.Not sure if he's personal with a Perth developer, but it's does help with getting knowledge.
Mustapha Mond
18 Aug 2014, 01:19 AM
The Perth market is in decline and that is with interest rates at or below inflation. Real price growth in Perth is long gone. Unless a left field event happens. Peter Foxbat has some more info. Have to catch up with him at the sauna this week. It's about high end apartments. Perth market
So what do you see happening with those Perth apartments?
Elaborate.
Do you think some of those commercial & residential builders are crying in their kleenexes ATM ?
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
Hahaahaa....good one Jim, the homes west burglary brigade and Perth are symbiotic to say the least..........
Me and uncle Mustapha here always have a bit of a chuckle about this peculiar problem Perth has with fucking burglaries.
Now, looking at the bigger picture, the mining tide's run out in Perth Jim, and as usual many of these buffoons are about to be caught out swimming naked.
This is just hilarious.........
Coogee in Sydney has the same problem and Maroubra, both have council blocks and problems with burglaries.
It will be interesting to watch these areas and see how well they do in comparison to places like Newcastle, Woolongong and the central coast, all of whom have come on in the last 10 years to overcome seedier reps.
I will have to explore Warnbro It looks pretty nice too
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Did you honestly think that you have been straight?
For Mike to be involved in the development stuff, I'm sure he would be in contact with home builders , land consultants etc.Not sure if he's personal with a Perth developer, but it's does help with getting knowledge.
I have been totally straight. Mike claims I am lying but Mike is wrong.
I have no reason to make stuff up. I am on here to gain access to market information and opinion whilst I am looking to make a purchase back into the local market. I will kiss goodbye to this site once I have bought back in (when the market either bottoms or starts to look like it might get away from me).
Meanwhile, I will comment on stuff I know about, have a bit of a laugh.
I have no need to lie about anything.
Mike is not involved in development. Mike is a Walter Mitty character who has invented a life of power and influence on the blogosphere to compensate for inadequacies in his real life. It isn't that hard to see.
Quite sad really.
skamy
18 Aug 2014, 02:25 AM
I will have to explore Warnbro It looks pretty nice too
Warnbro is a strange place.
It was originally a holiday or weekender destination for Perthites and the only housing was on a narrow strip about 300m back from the sand dunes (between Fendham Street and Currrie Street). The beach is spectacular and forms part of Warnbro Sound which includes Safety Bay and Shoalwater Bay (where Penguin Island sits which is what your picture shows).
With the Freeway extension to South Street in the early 90's and the growth of Kwinana as an industrial centre, Warnbro started to expand inland.
This explains the low median price for houses in the area. Warnbro has about 2kms of beachfront (if that) but stretches a good 4km inland. The further you get from the beach, the cheaper the property. The majority of the housing is priced below 400k but it sits in areas that are not that great.
As you get closer to the beach, you enter old Warnbro. It is an eclectic mix of fibros, 70's and 80's brick and tile and ultra modern bling houses. Also, the closer you get to the beach, the bigger the blocks. Typical block size is around 800m2 in Old Warnbro where inland it shrinks down to 400 or 500m2.
The offshoot suburb of Port Kennedy abuts to the south.
Now we have a station and freeway all the way down.
I love it here. It is unpretentious, quiet and there is a good sense of community.
You can't beat the beach. I go there everyday. Sheltered from the big swells by the reef 5km out, some days you would think you were walking by a lake rather than the ocean. I see Dolphin most days. I always think something is wrong if I don't see any.
I would take Warnbro over Mandurah any day of the week.
If you do visit, drive around the bay by going to Rockingham foreshore and follow the road along Palm Beach and then left at the end until you reach the first roundabout where you take a right into Arcadia Drive. Then just follow the road. Best ocean drive in metro Perth without a doubt.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Looking at the data it would appear that there was indeed a big price drop 2007 to 2008 and these areas have been selling below peak for quite some time. So I don't think anyone disbelieves the gist of what you were saying.
This forum is lively because of our diverse views, you are as welcome as anybody else to post here for as long as you like.
Things just get a bit heated sometimes, I am guilty there myself.
Jimbo
18 Aug 2014, 02:32 AM
If you do visit, drive around the bay by going to Rockingham foreshore and follow the road along Palm Beach and then left at the end until you reach the first roundabout where you take a right into Arcadia Drive. Then just follow the road. Best ocean drive in metro Perth without a doubt.
It certainly sounds like my kind of place, I will definitely get down to explore, and I have been meaning to get out to Penguin Island for ages.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
If it is non sense then I will let results speak for themselves. I have stated my position.
If I am correct then you will know what I say is true, if I am wrong go on ignoring me as you do anyway.
If I am correct though, ask yourself how does some one get most calls right most of the time. Pure good luck or perhaps that person may know a little about what they say, just maybe.
I think it's called babbling.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Looking at the data it would appear that there was indeed a big price drop 2007 to 2008 and these areas have been selling below peak for quite some time. So I don't think anyone disbelieves the gist of what you were saying.
This forum is lively because of our diverse views, you are as welcome as anybody else to post here for as long as you like.
Things just get a bit heated sometimes, I am guilty there myself.
The suburb is working class by nature and has the "Rockingham Bogan" stigma attached to it. Many of the very impressive houses in the dunes were built by working people who bought the land cheap and built big houses.
I don't think they have really fallen in price. Some changed hands for millions in 2007 but most were built for 400k or 500k in the early 2000's so nobody has lost money.
I know one house that was built for 500k in 2002 (including land). It is a full on luxury resort style place on absolute beachfront. They put it on the market a year ago for 1.5 million and turned down an offer of 1.2 million after the first home open. They are now advertising at 1.2 million and are not getting a sniff. (I won't post a link because I am friends with them).
There is nothing wrong with the house and maybe in ten years it will be looked back upon as being a bargain, but people with 1.2 million to spend, don't seem to want to live down here at the moment. I remember when Brentwood had the same stigma attached to it.
That is my reason for selling when I did. I have my eyes on some of these larger properties and more of them are coming onto the market. I have my cash ready to dive in when I see a property to my liking at the right price.
I am not trying to make money. I am trying to improve my life by living 50m from the beach and seeing the ocean when I open my curtains.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
The easier question to answer is when has Newjez ever been right, that is Avery small list. Meanwhile here are some of his classic quotes.
Predicted a crash for 2012, wrong again.
Newjez thought prices would crash and you could buy a house with cash, that was nearly 3 years ago. Nice call.
Love it, said right before prices increased by 6% over the next 5 months.
If you go back to my quotes from a few years ago, I correctly predicted Perth would rise over 15% in the next few years. Newjez even questioned how I knew this when no mainstream media reported this. Knowledge and experience counts for far more then sensationalist media reports. While newjez constant crash predictions never happened, my predictions proved to be very accurate, hard to get more accurate then I have been without a few supercomputers to model everything. Most bears followed Newjez line of thought and were also wrong.
I could post dozens of quotes from Newjez, Perthite and Veritas with bold predictions, property crashes, price declines. Perthite even called a recession and tried to convince us all WA in a recession. A least you 3 are good for a laugh some of the time. Called first hand data, a lot of experience and being able to extrapolate the result moving forward over the next few years.
As I have said for a few years now, I expect this spring/summer to be towards the end of this growth cycle. I expect prices to stabilise by this time next year. Then enter a flat market for a few years.
Ask yourself, how did I know Perth would grow by almost the exact amount it did, good guess? When nearly everyone said prices would fall I was going against the trend at the time. So how did I get nearly all the calls correct in recent years. Not all I make mistakes as well, but I have been very accurate, why?
I don't have time to go through every post like you Mike. But for the record, when someone says,'if something is going to happen, it will happen soon' the'if' actually means something. I don't think Perth will crash, I never really did. Perth slow burns, and it will do that for years.
Oh, and median Jun 2013 was $540,000. Median now is $550,000. But it would have been a lot easier selling in Jun 2013. There's a price to pay for picking the top.
I'd rather sell into the end of a boom than the start of a slump any day.
Perth market just gets better and better.
I know why you are angry. Taking all that debt and all that risk for 3% gain over five years. Your guts must be rotting, and your veins must be popping. Something keeping you awake at night?
Sorry Mike, I mixed a few dates up (memory fading with age).
Meanwhile, I did offer 850k when it was listed at 1.2 million and you will have to take my word for that.
At least the data shows that it was once worth more than 600k which according to you was not possible.
You really are a plonker Mike.
Do you honestly believe that I give a rats arse about what you and your three million devoted economic blog followers think?
No, not the top end. The top end isn't selling and has seen some pretty big falls in asking prices. These aren't reflecting in the median because the median looks at sold prices for houses that have actually sold. My whole point is that the middle and bottom end are not that far removed from the top end now so something has to give.
Bling houses near the beach were all the rage with your big earning FIFO and other mining related workers. Now they are being laid off, they are looking to cash in on their equity but nobody wants to pay big to buy into a suburb where big houses are fodder for the local Homes West burglary brigade.
Big houses in Mandurah have the same problem.
No you did not mix dates up.
You told us all lies.
Firstly you claimed the property had been on the market for $1.2 million. A lie.
The property was first listed 14 January 2008 at $975,000.
You then claimed it was listed in 2011 at $800,000. Another lie.
For a property you have been watching closely for 7 years you certainly don't know much about it. You could not even get the land size correct, which you said was 850sqm yet it was 728sqm.
This is just a property you found recently, you made up the stories as you are trying to talk the market down. You told us all lies to distort the truth about this property to justify a false assumption.
Explain to us all how do you forget you made an offer on a property of $1.2 million but it was really only advertised for $975,000. No one makes those kind of mistakes.
You lied on multiple occasions and continue to do so.
What I said about the property is $600,000 seems reasonable, although I think you can get it cheaper. I also said this area and the greater peel region feel by about 30% since the GFC. Now 30% of $975,000 is $325,000. So using my estimate of market falls from memory back in 2008 with a 30% decline would put the price at $650,000. My data and information if more accurate then yours, yet I did not know it was on the market for $975,000 I was going by your $1.2 million which seemed way over valued for the area. $975k for that time is far more reasonable but still over valued, we are talking about Rockingham not city beach.
Just don't lie to us all to try and prove some bullshit storey you made up, to easy to shoot you down in flames.
Having said all of this. I think tithe Rockingham and mandurah areas represent some of the best buying in Perth. My opinion is those areas will grow in price at twice the Perth median over the next 5 years. So I consider them cheap and a good buy if you like those areas.
Quote:
127 FENDAM STREET, WARNBRO 5 3 2 728 sqm HouseLast Advertised : July 2014 Historical Prices: June 2014Expressions of Interest March 2014$649,000 Buyers Over January 2014$699,000 January 2014All Offers Considered December 2013All Offers Considered July 2012$615,000 - $630,000 March 2012$615,000 - $630,000 April 2011$595,000 - $635,000 Negotiable September 2010$595,000 - $635,000 Negotiable July 2010$625,000 - $645,000 July 2010$625,000 - $645,000 BY NEG June 2010$659,000 November 2009$650,000 November 2009$650,000 New June 2008$859,000 May 2008$859,000 April 2008$859,000 New April 2008$975,000
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