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Predictions for Spring - Up down or sideways
Topic Started: 7 Aug 2014, 08:29 PM (1,824 Views)
Sprung
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Whats going to happen when Spring has sprung?

Personally, I think the sub 5% fixed rate mortgages on offer will lead to decent price rises, as all though FHBs that sat out 2013 will bite the bullet in Spring 2014, in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane at least

In Perth, who knows!

I think a bubble will only form when even the most bullish of people on this forum will scratch their heads and say "I don't know why these prices are rising" - are we at that day yet? I don't think so.

Or am I wrong, are there bulls who are willing to step back from the personal crap that goes on (for once), be a man (or woman), and say that they are concerned about unemployment/Iron Ore price/over-reliance on overseas investors/too many crappy 1bdr apartments?


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Timo
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Sprung
7 Aug 2014, 08:29 PM
Whats going to happen when Spring has sprung?

Personally, I think the sub 5% fixed rate mortgages on offer will lead to decent price rises, as all though FHBs that sat out 2013 will bite the bullet in Spring 2014, in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane at least

In Perth, who knows!

I think a bubble will only form when even the most bullish of people on this forum will scratch their heads and say "I don't know why these prices are rising" - are we at that day yet? I don't think so.

Or am I wrong, are there bulls who are willing to step back from the personal crap that goes on (for once), be a man (or woman), and say that they are concerned about unemployment/Iron Ore price/over-reliance on overseas investors/too many crappy 1bdr apartments?


The bubble already exists.....your question needs to be if it will further inflate
After a bubble has burst, no one denies that it existed. But before it does, the popular refrain is that though bubbles existed elsewhere in the world, “there’s no bubble here”. So housing bubbles are admitted to have existed in Japan, the USA, Spain and Ireland – because they’ve already burst.
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newjez
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Perth sideways. Don't give a damn about the rest.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Lef-tee
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Perth probably sideways. Rises for eastern Australia as the ability for ownership continues to be transferred to those who have no further need of it.
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Mallard
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Sprung
7 Aug 2014, 08:29 PM
Whats going to happen when Spring has sprung?

Personally, I think the sub 5% fixed rate mortgages on offer will lead to decent price rises, as all though FHBs that sat out 2013 will bite the bullet in Spring 2014, in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane at least


I think this is the crucial point. Variable rates and discounts have also gone lower in the last few months giving buyers more purchasing power. Variable rates can now be had for mid fours. I think there is another season of growth in Sydney yet.
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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goldbug
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Prices down across the board. There is simply too much fear in the economy, too many failing industies and rising unemployment. Gold sales have fallen it is postulated because those wishing to choose that as a hedge have spent their money and are now sitting. The same principle applies to investment in real estate.

Don't forget that 50% of housing products sold in recent years have gone to investors. Those choosing that route as capital preservation are probably a spent force now as well. Look around, even the investors here are for the most part only buying if they can find a property significantly below market.

Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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SittingOnDeFence
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goldbug
8 Aug 2014, 08:54 AM
Prices down across the board. There is simply too much fear in the economy, too many failing industies and rising unemployment. Gold sales have fallen it is postulated because those wishing to choose that as a hedge have spent their money and are now sitting. The same principle applies to investment in real estate.

Don't forget that 50% of housing products sold in recent years have gone to investors. Those choosing that route as capital preservation are probably a spent force now as well. Look around, even the investors here are for the most part only buying if they can find a property significantly below market.

The thing is there will be a lot of people who are looking at the UK and Ireland, where there was a crash, and thinking - hey, even if things crash, I'll probably be able to hold onto it (or I'm two years ahead on my mortgage) and then there'll be another boom after so I can sell then...
I don't have a clue what will happen, but I reckon that there will be a PR overdrive by the banks and RE in the next month
Edited by SittingOnDeFence, 8 Aug 2014, 10:05 AM.
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Black Panther
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Thrusting Upwards, Harder, Stronger !
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goldbug
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All except perth hey bp :lol
Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
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Jimbo
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SittingOnDeFence
8 Aug 2014, 10:01 AM
The thing is there will be a lot of people who are looking at the UK and Ireland, where there was a crash, and thinking - hey, even if things crash, I'll probably be able to hold onto it (or I'm two years ahead on my mortgage) and then there'll be another boom after so I can sell then...
I don't have a clue what will happen, but I reckon that there will be a PR overdrive by the banks and RE in the next month
Prices are decided by the houses sold during any given period. What happens during slumps is that more of the properties on the market are distressed sales (because anyone who doesn't need to sell, doesn't sell).

This is how markets suddenly crash. Distressed sellers will drop prices to find buyers and once buyers realise they are in a buyers market, the dynamics change. Instead of rushing in to buy to avoid rises, they hold out for further falls. The RE industry will work overtime to try and convince everybody that it is not a buyers market.

I predict a slump in Perth based on the simple fact that there are a number of over leveraged owners who are losing their jobs or seeing their pay cut. There is also an increasing rental vacancy rate which may force some investors to cut losses or (if they have CG) profit take.

There is also the double whammy of a lot of FIFO workers having negatively geared investment portfolios. These people have increasing job insecurity and rely on their high wages to fill the gap between property income and expenditure. These are the people who are crapping their dacks at the moment.

Edited by Jimbo, 8 Aug 2014, 11:50 AM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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