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Unemployment jumps to 12 year high of 6.4%; ABS 6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, July 2014
Topic Started: 7 Aug 2014, 12:56 PM (7,969 Views)
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Mallard
7 Aug 2014, 09:26 PM
There is no even response to data. As a statistician I see hyperbole from every number from people to don't understand.

Didn't mean to cast you so negatively. I expect the peak of unemployment is near, but it might get worse and we might see more interest rate cuts. I get frustrated that the big jump is reported. We are a function of society wanting big news rather than a balanced view of the truth.
So, you don't like the number mallard, too bad eh, you should be grateful the reported number is half the REAL number.

Remove the wool from in front of your rose coloured glasses might help. No rocket science here, domt you understand our wages can no ponger compete. You do understand thats why all our jobs are going dont you.

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John Frum
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Mallard
7 Aug 2014, 09:26 PM
There is no even response to data. As a statistician I see hyperbole from every number from people to don't understand.

Didn't mean to cast you so negatively. I expect the peak of unemployment is near, but it might get worse and we might see more interest rate cuts. I get frustrated that the big jump is reported. We are a function of society wanting big news rather than a balanced view of the truth.
Wow, you are one seriously deluded individual if you expect the peak is near and all that's needed is a fillip for sentiment.

Go and look at the numbers for youth employment - they're sky high.

And while you're at it, show me a company on a hiring binge. I can tell you at the Big 4 they're hiring in some departments, namely the ones building online services - offering the same products that once required the services of call center operators or branch staff. They know what's coming and they're making plans.

You can talk it down all you like, but the data speaks for itself.
Edited by John Frum, 7 Aug 2014, 09:57 PM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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herbie
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Mallard
7 Aug 2014, 08:51 PM
... If you are statistically weird then nobody gives a fuck about your sort ...
But am I statistically weird? ... :)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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John Frum
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herbie
7 Aug 2014, 10:04 PM
But am I statistically weird? ... :)
Nah Herbie, you're just colloquially wierd. :lol
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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lulldapull
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gents, there's a reason why we've renamed him as 'mallard of the ass'...........cuz he's a fuckin dumb ass!
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herbie
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John Frum
7 Aug 2014, 10:14 PM
Nah Herbie, you're just colloquially wierd. :lol
You just can't always trust that i before e except after c colloquial type yarn I reckon John ... :)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Drop in unemployment figures mask the job losses recorded in July – Australian workforce in contraction

August 05 2014

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 389,788 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – July 2014 and includes 5,365 to-face interviews in July 2014.

Posted Image

In July 2014:

11,102,000 Australians are employed: (down 80,000 since last month June; down 194,000 since July last year);
1,265,000 Australians are looking for work (10.2% of the workforce): (down 61,000 since last month June; down 2,000 since July last year);
12,367,000 Australians are in the workforce: (down 141,000 since last month June; down 196,000 since July last year);
7,353,000 Australians are employed full-time: (down 116,000 since last month June; down 61,000 since July last year);
3,749,000 Australians are employed part-time: (up 36,000 since last month June; down 133,000 since July last year);
1,079,000 Australians are under-employed (working part-time and looking for more hours – 8.7%): (down 109,000 since last month June; down 52,000 since July last year).
2,344,000 Australians are unemployed or under-employed (18.9% of the workforce); (down 170,000 since last month June; down 54,000 since July last year);
Despite this month’s fall the latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 10.2% is a substantial 4.2% higher than the figure currently quoted by the ABS for June 2014 (6%).

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed. **The Roy Morgan employment estimates for May 2014 and going forward are based to a lower estimate of the Australian population aged 14 or more (from 19,365,000 in the original April figures to 19,205,000 for the revised April figures and 19,232,000 in May). The lower Roy Morgan national population estimate is a result of ABS revisions after fully including the results of the most recent ABS Census.

Gary Morgan says:

“In July Australian unemployment fell to 1.265 million Australians (10.2%, down 0.4% since June) and under-employment fell to 1.079 million (8.7%, down 0.8%). This is the first time unemployment has fallen in July since 2009. However, despite a fall in unemployment being good news, there was also a substantial contraction in the Australian workforce (12,367,000 down 141,000) which indicates that the fall in unemployment has been driven more by a contracting workforce than the creation of new jobs.

“The decline in the workforce was driven by a large fall in full-time employment (7,353,000, down 116,000) which was only partially offset by an increase in part-time employment (3,749,000, up 36,000). Slightly better news is that despite a rise in part-time employment, under-employment (those who work part-time and wish to work longer hours or full-time) fell to 1,079,000 (down 109,000). This result is slightly unusual as these figures usually move in the same direction.

“However, the overall picture of the Australian labour market still shows an economy that has a large amount of under-utilised labour – a total of 2.34 million Australians (18.9%) are now either unemployed or under-employed. This is the 32nd straight month more than 2 million Australians have been looking for work or looking for more work, and this is also the 26th straight month more than 1 million Australians have been unemployed.

“Clearly Australian unemployment and under-employment is far too high at present and if the Abbott Government wants to stand any chance of winning the 2016 Federal Election due in two years’ time it must enact significant reforms to Australia’s industrial relations laws to ‘free up’ the Australian labour market and increase the productivity of the broader Australian labour force and entice Australians who have ‘given up’ looking for a job back into the labour force to find gainful employment.

“In recent weeks the Abbott Government has introduced a number of measures to Federal Parliament as part of its first Federal Budget and has also floated the idea that unemployed Australians collecting the dole will need to make as many as 40 job applications per month if they are to keep receiving their unemployment benefits. Although this initiative aims to encourage job seekers to actually look actively for work, today’s Roy Morgan July employment figures show this policy is simply not realistic given the lack of jobs in the Australian economy at present.

“As well as specifically targeting comprehensive labour market reform through reducing ‘red tape’ and removing excessive regulations – including high weekend penalty rates – the best way for the Abbott Government to stimulate sustainable jobs growth is through pursuing comprehensive reform and de-regulation that creates a healthy, strong and growing Australian economy. Reducing Australia’s high level of unemployment and under-employment (2.34 million Australians) is the Abbott Government’s only chance of winning re-election in two years’ time.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 389,788 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – July 2014 and includes 5,365 to-face interviews in July 2014.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results.)

Read more: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5717-roy-morgan-australian-unemployment-july-2014-201408050410
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skamy
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herbie
7 Aug 2014, 08:24 PM
It's a while since I've done any stats, so does that mean it could actually be a right proper bastard of a result just on the 95% chance it isn't actually just a 'blip' in the data?
It looks like a blip, I am with Mallard on this one, the actual numbers are better than everyone expected as the mining investment boom has fallen considerably losing a lot of jobs. Construction must be picking up the slack, (or real estate in the Eastern states :dry: ).

It is just the seasonal adjustment that makes it look negative, all the actual data was better than or as good as last months data.

When you think about it Australia is definitely lucky as it seems to have dodged two bullets. A big crash due to the GFC and a big boom due to mining investment.
Lef-tee
7 Aug 2014, 08:41 PM


I'm not sure it's an outlier so much as a mixed result. The rise in the participation rate was responsable for a good portion of the rise in the headline unemployment rate. To me, this suggests that some of the hidden unemployed entered the labour force searching for work in response to - mildly - improving job vacancies. Some or even all of the rise in headline unemployment might reverse next month.

But the situation remains poor overall. It takes skamy-strength denial not to see that.
Lay off the personal attacks Leftie, you only damage your own rep not mine.
herbie
7 Aug 2014, 10:04 PM
But am I statistically weird? ... :)
Only if the ABS never get to chat to someone else in your situation :)
lulldapull
7 Aug 2014, 10:21 PM
gents, there's a reason why we've renamed him as 'mallard of the ass'...........cuz he's a fuckin dumb ass!
You and Leftie should get together and share tips on losing credibility by name calling
Edited by skamy, 8 Aug 2014, 12:52 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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cokatoo56
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skamy
8 Aug 2014, 12:42 AM
It looks like a blip, I am with Mallard on this one, the actual numbers are better than everyone expected as the mining investment boom has fallen considerably losing a lot of jobs. Construction must be picking up the slack, (or real estate in the Eastern states :dry: ).

It is just the seasonal adjustment that makes it look negative, all the actual data was better than or as good as last months data.

When you think about it Australia is definitely lucky as it seems to have dodged two bullets. A big crash due to the GFC and a big boom due to mining investment.

Lay off the personal attacks Leftie, you only damage your own rep not mine.

Only if the ABS never get to chat to someone else in your situation :)

You and Leftie should get together and share tips on losing credibility by name calling
with the car manufacturing industry going to thailand/china, and the mining activity going down, we can expect these unemployment figures to worsen in the coming 2,3 years
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skamy
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cokatoo56
8 Aug 2014, 12:54 AM
with the car manufacturing industry going to thailand/china, and the mining activity going down, we can expect these unemployment figures to worsen in the coming 2,3 years
Not really because there is a lot of construction on the books and retail, tourism and all the GFC affected areas etc will recover at some stage.

This was the time everyone was expecting the impact of the completion of the big mining projects to hit. The economy should return to pre-GFC/ pre-investment boom conditions fairly soon.
Edited by skamy, 8 Aug 2014, 01:01 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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