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Unemployment jumps to 12 year high of 6.4%; ABS 6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, July 2014
Topic Started: 7 Aug 2014, 12:56 PM (7,970 Views)
Mallard
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Elastic
7 Aug 2014, 08:11 PM
All of Australia's jobs growth for 2014 happened in one month during a sample rotation earlier in the year.
I think it was 90,000 jobs. At the time there was no evidence for any kind of employment boost so it was definitely a result of sampling.
Every other month employment has been flat and if you look at the graph for total employment you can see it has topped out.
Currently the mining industry is shedding jobs and the auto industry has a couple more years left in it.
I don't share your optimism.
Yeah that why the trend is great because it smooths out the ups and the Downs.

Unemployment is always a lagging stat. Which straw will you clutch at next?
herbie
7 Aug 2014, 08:24 PM
It's a while since I've done any stats, so does that mean it could actually be a right proper bastard of a result just on the 95% chance it isn't actually just a 'blip' in the data?
The results will be within 0.4pc 19 out of 20 times. This result is close to the edge but other data suggests it's just an outlier.

It might be right. It might be wrong. It suggests that a person on every street has lost their job in the last month which is just bollocks.
Edited by Mallard, 7 Aug 2014, 08:29 PM.
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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Mallard
7 Aug 2014, 08:08 PM
Good thinking. You get the ball rolling. Go into work tomorrow and say you want a 20pc pay cut.

Let us know how it works out for everykne
Well, what's the solutions here mallard ?

You couldn't answer my question regarding wages just before , even though you wanted to respond to me.

The outcome is one or the other mallard, lets have a closer look. We can try and keep wages as high as we can for as long as we can to maintain house prices and our standard of living as a whole..But to do this , means that our uncompetitive wages will just take more and more jobs with it.

So we could face reality now and attempt to do something about it , or we can just pretend it does not exist and push more and more young down the path to financial ruin by telling them all the bullshit and have more face financial ruin later.



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miw
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Elastic
7 Aug 2014, 07:28 PM
Does anyone know whether those on 457 visas can be included in the sample?
They would be, as long as they live in a dwelling in Australia. The survey doesn't ask about your citizenship status. Just asks if you are in work or looking for work. The dwellings are chosen randomly.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
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Lef-tee
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Quote:
 
The results will be within 0.4pc 19 out of 20 times. This result is close to the edge but other data suggests it's just an outlier.


I'm not sure it's an outlier so much as a mixed result. The rise in the participation rate was responsable for a good portion of the rise in the headline unemployment rate. To me, this suggests that some of the hidden unemployed entered the labour force searching for work in response to - mildly - improving job vacancies. Some or even all of the rise in headline unemployment might reverse next month.

But the situation remains poor overall. It takes skamy-strength denial not to see that.
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herbie
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Lef-tee
7 Aug 2014, 08:41 PM


I'm not sure it's an outlier so much as a mixed result. The rise in the participation rate was responsable for a good portion of the rise in the headline unemployment rate. To me, this suggests that some of the hidden unemployed entered the labour force searching for work in response to - mildly - improving job vacancies. Some or even all of the rise in headline unemployment might reverse next month.

But the situation remains poor overall. It takes skamy-strength denial not to see that.
I'm unemployed. (Became so late last year - Don't even especially want to work; Unless the loot's really good - Which it might be if someone comes looking for me; But not otherwise most likely.) So don't have my name down anywhere as looking for work.

Do I 'count'? ... :)
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Mallard
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7 Aug 2014, 08:35 PM
Well, what's the solutions here mallard ?

You couldn't answer my question regarding wages just before , even though you wanted to respond to me.

The outcome is one or the other mallard, lets have a closer look. We can try and keep wages as high as we can for as long as we can to maintain house prices and our standard of living as a whole..But to do this , means that our uncompetitive wages will just take more and more jobs with it.

So we could face reality now and attempt to do something about it , or we can just pretend it does not exist and push more and more young down the path to financial ruin by telling them all the bullshit and have more face financial ruin later.


Too long; didn't read
herbie
7 Aug 2014, 08:48 PM
I'm unemployed. (Became so late last year - Don't even especially want to work; Unless the loot's really good - Which it might be if someone comes looking for me; But not otherwise most likely.) So don't have my name down anywhere as looking for work.

Do I 'count'? ... :)
Not unless you answer the call. If there are enough people like you to influence he figures then the sample should reflect it. If you are statistically weird then nobody gives a fuck about your sort
Edited by Mallard, 7 Aug 2014, 08:54 PM.
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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miw
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herbie
7 Aug 2014, 08:48 PM
I'm unemployed. (Became so late last year - Don't even especially want to work; Unless the loot's really good - Which it might be if someone comes looking for me; But not otherwise most likely.) So don't have my name down anywhere as looking for work.

Do I 'count'? ... :)
Assuming your house was on the list phoned/visited by the ABS, you would count as not being in the labour force and therefore not "unemployed".
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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Elastic
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Mallard
7 Aug 2014, 08:25 PM
Yeah that why the trend is great because it smooths out the ups and the Downs.

Unemployment is always a lagging stat. Which straw will you clutch at next?
I didn't realise I was clutching at straws. Most people are responding pretty evenly to the data whereas you seem to be a bit hysterical about it.
Just because unemployment is a lagging stat doesn't mean it will not keep increasing. I don't see much potential growth in the economy for now and I expect it will get worse before it gets better.
Housing construction is apparently booming and it has soaked up some jobs but for growth you need ever increasing rates of construction.
I don't think that ramping immigration up any further will be politically viable right now.
What do you think will contribute to economic growth over the next few years?
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Mallard
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Elastic
7 Aug 2014, 09:18 PM
I didn't realise I was clutching at straws. Most people are responding pretty evenly to the data whereas you seem to be a bit hysterical about it.
Just because unemployment is a lagging stat doesn't mean it will not keep increasing. I don't see much potential growth in the economy for now and I expect it will get worse before it gets better.
Housing construction is apparently booming and it has soaked up some jobs but for growth you need ever increasing rates of construction.
I don't think that ramping immigration up any further will be politically viable right now.
What do you think will contribute to economic growth over the next few years?
There is no even response to data. As a statistician I see hyperbole from every number from people to don't understand.

Didn't mean to cast you so negatively. I expect the peak of unemployment is near, but it might get worse and we might see more interest rate cuts. I get frustrated that the big jump is reported. We are a function of society wanting big news rather than a balanced view of the truth.
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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Ned Flanders
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Mallard
7 Aug 2014, 08:51 PM
If you are statistically weird then nobody gives a fuck about your sort
So it is a biased sample then, not a random sample?
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