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Unemployment jumps to 12 year high of 6.4%; ABS 6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, July 2014
Topic Started: 7 Aug 2014, 12:56 PM (7,971 Views)
Elastic
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It's not really an outlier though.
It's a new group of people brought into the sample that have different employment characteristics to those that left.
A % of the group gets recycled out every 6 months.
In other words, don't expect a revision next month.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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skamy
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Mallard
7 Aug 2014, 07:30 PM
It's ridiculous isn't it? The media know it too but they go for the shock value. Hence the public is misinformed. Having met the chiefs of the ABS though they should get some people to run it that have a real world view too. This idea of publishing "what the data says" without a sensible overlay is pathetic and irresponsible.

I know it's a marginal thing but how many households in Australia will see this on the news and think that they should tighten their belts without good reason?
I think most commentators would be surprised at the figures as they are much better than people have been predicting. They were ready for a doom and gloom and were forced to use the noisy seasonally adjusted figures to get this.

IMHO this will be their last chance to wallow in tears over the economy, it should be all good from here on in for a good while.

Shadow's residential construction boom should kick start employment growth again :)
Elastic
7 Aug 2014, 07:51 PM
It's not really an outlier though.
It's a new group of people brought into the sample that have different employment characteristics to those that left.
A % of the group gets recycled out every 6 months.
In other words, don't expect a revision next month.
Look at the graph of course it gets revised.
Edited by skamy, 7 Aug 2014, 07:58 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Mallard
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Elastic
7 Aug 2014, 07:51 PM
It's not really an outlier though.
It's a new group of people brought into the sample that have different employment characteristics to those that left.
A % of the group gets recycled out every 6 months.
In other words, don't expect a revision next month.
No this month one eighth of the sample will have changed. So if they are responsible for the change then the new sample will have an unemployment rate of 9.2pc

Its an aberration. The job ads series has turned the corner. The ABS will get on board soon.

I foresee the bulls clinging to this and when it gets corrected they will have moved on to the next feeble straw of hope
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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Ex BP Golly
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Guest
7 Aug 2014, 07:28 PM
Do you know why we will lose jobs for years ? Our wages can no longer compete

Does anybody here have a solution to this problem ? Any suggestions ? :)

Thought so....... ;)
Lower wages and engage in re-industrialisation.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

HomeBuyer
7 Aug 2014, 12:56 PM
http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/unemployment-jumps-to-more-than-10year-high-20140807-101a9n.html


Looks like the only thing soaring will be the unemployment rate and not property prices
The Eastern States can show us how to run a welfare state here in Western Australia, but where is the money coming from??
Peter
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Lef-tee
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Australian labour market specialist Bill Mitchell....

Quote:
 
Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for July 2014 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows a deteriorating situation. The Australian labour market is weakening. While the participation rate rose by 0.1 points, which pushed extra workers into the labour force,the negative employment growth was well below the underlying population growth and so unemployment would have risen without the participation rate rise. In fact, unemployment rose sharply in July to 6.4 per cent. This is a terrible outcome. There are now 789 thousand officially counted as unemployed. Overall, the labour market is scudding along a very flat path and unemployment continues to eke its way up. The teenage labour market also weakened and in my view represents a national emergency. Overall, the policy failure at the federal level is now stark.


Link here

The labour market has been in a poor state for a couple of years, not collapsing but performing weakly with an upward bias to unemployment. Today's results simply continue that trend.
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Timo
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HomeBuyer
7 Aug 2014, 12:56 PM
http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/unemployment-jumps-to-more-than-10year-high-20140807-101a9n.html


Looks like the only thing soaring will be the unemployment rate and not property prices
Well who would've thought......time to take on more record debt
After a bubble has burst, no one denies that it existed. But before it does, the popular refrain is that though bubbles existed elsewhere in the world, “there’s no bubble here”. So housing bubbles are admitted to have existed in Japan, the USA, Spain and Ireland – because they’ve already burst.
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Mallard
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Ex BP Golly
7 Aug 2014, 08:02 PM
Lower wages and engage in re-industrialisation.
Good thinking. You get the ball rolling. Go into work tomorrow and say you want a 20pc pay cut.

Let us know how it works out for everykne
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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Elastic
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Mallard
7 Aug 2014, 08:01 PM
No this month one eighth of the sample will have changed. So if they are responsible for the change then the new sample will have an unemployment rate of 9.2pc

Its an aberration. The job ads series has turned the corner. The ABS will get on board soon.

I foresee the bulls clinging to this and when it gets corrected they will have moved on to the next feeble straw of hope
All of Australia's jobs growth for 2014 happened in one month during a sample rotation earlier in the year.
I think it was 90,000 jobs. At the time there was no evidence for any kind of employment boost so it was definitely a result of sampling.
Every other month employment has been flat and if you look at the graph for total employment you can see it has topped out.
Currently the mining industry is shedding jobs and the auto industry has a couple more years left in it.
I don't share your optimism.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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herbie
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skamy
7 Aug 2014, 07:15 PM
Oh just checked the 95% confidence interval is +/- 0.4 pts
It's a while since I've done any stats, so does that mean it could actually be a right proper bastard of a result just on the 95% chance it isn't actually just a 'blip' in the data?
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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