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Unemployment jumps to 12 year high of 6.4%; ABS 6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, July 2014
Topic Started: 7 Aug 2014, 12:56 PM (7,972 Views)
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Just as you have all been told for years what will happen to our jobs as cheap asian labour and modern technology make them obsolete.

Just WHEN will you people get it. :bye:
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Mallard
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The trend numbers are the only ones to watch. The monthly figures are bollocks. It's absurd to think that unemployment as jumped by 0.4pc in a month.
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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skamy
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Mallard
7 Aug 2014, 06:51 PM
The trend numbers are the only ones to watch. The monthly figures are bollocks. It's absurd to think that unemployment as jumped by 0.4pc in a month.
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The seasonally adjusted is all over the place. They probably need to re think how they calculate it - it appears to be either wildly inaccurate or terribly sensitive to noise.

Oh just checked the 95% confidence interval is +/- 0.4 pts
Edited by skamy, 7 Aug 2014, 07:19 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Mallard
7 Aug 2014, 06:51 PM
The trend numbers are the only ones to watch. The monthly figures are bollocks. It's absurd to think that unemployment as jumped by 0.4pc in a month.
Reality kicking in yet mallard ?

The fact is, the real unemployment rate is much higher. Just watching the nine news right now, they said how the real figures where much higher, and emphasised how bodgy they are by counting people who are working one hour a week even though they are unemployed and receiving full unemployment benefits. They also explained how people who have been kicked off the dole or given up are also not counted.

Just a complete cover up of the truth.

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Elastic
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There was another sample rotation this month which accounts for the unusual result. However, it's worth remembering back in January during the last sample rotation there was a sudden 90,000 increase in jobs so this is just the opposite effect at work.
With that in mind, it just looks as though we're not managing to create enough jobs for all the population growth.
Does anyone know whether those on 457 visas can be included in the sample?
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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skamy
7 Aug 2014, 07:15 PM
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The seasonally adjusted is all over the place. They probably need to re think how they calculate it - it appears to be either wildly inaccurate or terribly sensitive to noise.

Oh just checked the 95% confidence interval is +/- 0.4 pts
Look at the bulls trying to cover up the reality.

But I think everybody knows by now , the REAL figures are much higher than the coverup being portrayed.

Do you know why we are losing all our jobs ? Our wages can no longer compete.

Do you know why we will lose jobs for years ? Our wages can no longer compete

Does anybody here have a solution to this problem ? Any suggestions ? :)

Thought so....... ;)
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Mallard
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skamy
7 Aug 2014, 07:15 PM
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The seasonally adjusted is all over the place. They probably need to re think how they calculate it - it appears to be either wildly inaccurate or terribly sensitive to noise.

Oh just checked the 95% confidence interval is +/- 0.4 pts
It's ridiculous isn't it? The media know it too but they go for the shock value. Hence the public is misinformed. Having met the chiefs of the ABS though they should get some people to run it that have a real world view too. This idea of publishing "what the data says" without a sensible overlay is pathetic and irresponsible.

I know it's a marginal thing but how many households in Australia will see this on the news and think that they should tighten their belts without good reason?
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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John Frum
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skamy
7 Aug 2014, 07:15 PM
The seasonally adjusted is all over the place. They probably need to re think how they calculate it - it appears to be either wildly inaccurate or terribly sensitive to noise.
Yep, but if you put your reading glasses on there you'll notice a nice parabolic shape forming in the (non-noisy) trend line. That's something to be less complacent about.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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Mallard
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7 Aug 2014, 07:28 PM
Look at the bulls trying to cover up the reality.

But I think everybody knows by now , the REAL figures are much higher than the coverup being portrayed.

Do you know why we are losing all our jobs ? Our wages can no longer compete.

Do you know why we will lose jobs for years ? Our wages can no longer compete

Does anybody here have a solution to this problem ? Any suggestions ? :)

Thought so....... ;)
Just register MMM and save us the bother
John Frum
7 Aug 2014, 07:37 PM
Yep, but if you put your reading glasses on there you'll notice a nice parabolic shape forming in the (non-noisy) trend line. That's something to be less complacent about.
Nah because this month's outlier is causing the inflection.
Edited by Mallard, 7 Aug 2014, 07:40 PM.
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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Mallard
7 Aug 2014, 07:30 PM
It's ridiculous isn't it? The media know it too but they go for the shock value. Hence the public is misinformed. Having met the chiefs of the ABS though they should get some people to run it that have a real world view too. This idea of publishing "what the data says" without a sensible overlay is pathetic and irresponsible.

I know it's a marginal thing but how many households in Australia will see this on the news and think that they should tighten their belts without good reason?
So what would you suggest ?

Loosening your belt and prepare to take what's coming.

Do record low interest rates not seen since the great depression not say anything to you at all mallard.

Unemployment highest in over a decade and rising.

No answer to replace all the jobs we are losing because our wages can longer compete in the modern global economy.

Good luck.

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