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Unemployment jumps to 12 year high of 6.4%; ABS 6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, July 2014
Topic Started: 7 Aug 2014, 12:56 PM (7,962 Views)
HomeBuyer
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http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/unemployment-jumps-to-more-than-10year-high-20140807-101a9n.html


Looks like the only thing soaring will be the unemployment rate and not property prices
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Lef-tee
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Doesn't look good does it?

To be honest, I don't think it's quite as bad as it looks on the surface even though I've only had a cursory glance at the figures. A fair bit of the rise in the headline unemployment rate was likely due to the rise in the participation rate. A rising unemployment rate when accompanied with a rising participation rate can actually signal an improvement in labour market conditions as discouraged workers see greater opportunties and begin the search for work, thus being suddenly classed as unemployed.

So it may be that this is actually a turning point for the better. But most likely I think the real situation is just one of ongoing stagnation and poor labour demand. As it has been for a couple of years now.

I will wait for more expert analysis.
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stinkbug
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I tend to agree with Leftee. It doesn't look great on the surface but how bad is it really? Also, the dollar dropped a bit and figures like these will keep rates lower for longer.

We'll keep muddling through, and the property market will generally keep stagnating. I'd say we have 3 or 4 more years like this still to go.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Mike
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The RBA will not lower rates based on this data, it will however keep them at this rate for at least this year.

If inflation trends down over coming months it may give the RBA room to cut rates but they have signalled they have done nearly all they can do. To cut rates further would only put to much price pressure on the property market, mostly Sydney and Melbourne.

Sydney property price growth is what is keeping the RBA to hold fire on rate cuts, even thought the overall economy could use it. A lower dollar would help as well. Rates at 2% would seem an appropriate level, however this would only fuel the investor speculation feeding the Sydney property market and that could end badly for Sydney.

So it looks like rates will remain on hold for at least 6 months until the unemployment, inflation data becomes clear. Of course if unemployment continues to rise next month and looks to be moving towards 7% the RBA will have no other option but to cut rates regardless of inflation or Sydney house prices. The overall economy needs to be protected, not just a focus on Sydney property prices which are only a fraction of the national economy.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Lef-tee
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Mike
7 Aug 2014, 01:34 PM
The RBA will not lower rates based on this data, it will however keep them at this rate for at least this year.

If inflation trends down over coming months it may give the RBA room to cut rates but they have signalled they have done nearly all they can do. To cut rates further would only put to much price pressure on the property market, mostly Sydney and Melbourne.

Sydney property price growth is what is keeping the RBA to hold fire on rate cuts, even thought the overall economy could use it. A lower dollar would help as well. Rates at 2% would seem an appropriate level, however this would only fuel the investor speculation feeding the Sydney property market and that could end badly for Sydney.

So it looks like rates will remain on hold for at least 6 months until the unemployment, inflation data becomes clear. Of course if unemployment continues to rise next month and looks to be moving towards 7% the RBA will have no other option but to cut rates regardless of inflation or Sydney house prices. The overall economy needs to be protected, not just a focus on Sydney property prices which are only a fraction of the national economy.
Tend to agree, I think they'll continue to hold fire on rates for now.
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Perthite
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Bloxo doesn't seem to like it.

I will maintain the next move is down.

Quick lets import a shitload more people... that will help.
Edited by Perthite, 7 Aug 2014, 01:45 PM.
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Lef-tee
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Perthite
7 Aug 2014, 01:42 PM
Bloxo doesn't seem to like it.

I will maintain the next move is down.

Quick lets import a shitload more people... that will help.
I think the next move will probably be down as well but I think they'll hold fire for the time being.
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Admin
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ABS Data: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0

Employed Persons
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Unemployment Rate
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Quote:
 
JULY KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

Employment increased to 11,582,200 from a revised June 2014 estimate.
Unemployment increased to 756,700.
Unemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to 6.1%, based on unrounded estimates.
Participation rate remained steady at 64.7%.
Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 2.8 million hours (0.2%) to 1,610.9 million hours.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

Employment decreased 300 to 11,576,600. Full-time employment increased 14,500 to 8,077,400 and part-time employment decreased 14,800 to 3,499,200.
Unemployment increased 43,700 to 789,000. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 21,900 to 566,400 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 21,800 to 222,600.
The unemployment rate increased 0.3 pts to 6.4%.
Participation rate increased 0.1 pts to 64.8%.
Aggregate monthly hours worked decreased 14.8 million hours (0.9%) to 1 ,610.7 million hours.
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stinkbug
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Lef-tee
7 Aug 2014, 01:47 PM
I think the next move will probably be down as well but I think they'll hold fire for the time being.
I think the next move will be down too, but not until probably mid next year. This data won't be enough to move them, but it will still be a downward pressure that will be considered.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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SuperEgo
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real full time employment would be 6.4%

I suggest its just a typo

Max Mason from the SMH must be on some good coke

share it around maxxy :lol
Edited by SuperEgo, 7 Aug 2014, 03:36 PM.
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